Source: China Securities News
After the interest rate cut, the new loan market quotation rate (LPR) was released on the 20th. Industry insiders said that LPR follow-up is a high probability event. LPR will fully reflect the changes in market interest rates in a timely manner and effectively promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises. The follow-up stable economic growth requires further efforts in monetary policy regulation and control, and the reduction of the RRR in the first quarter can still be expected.
LPR has a high probability of falling
Experts believe that after the 17th medium-term lending facility (MLF) and open market operation interest rate fell, the upcoming LPR and the decline is a high probability event.
"Under the framework of the current LPR anchoring MLF interest rate, a decline in MLF interest rates will lead to a decline in LPR, and the 1-year LPR may be followed by a 10 basis point decline." Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, said.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that after the decline in MLF interest rates, LPR for 1 years and more than 5 years will be reduced, and if the LPR above 5 years is reduced, it will play a role in stabilizing the real estate market expectations.
Under the current formation mechanism, LPR quotation = MLF interest rate + quotation line plus point, then will the quotation line further compress the point on the 20th, so that the LPR decline is greater than the MLF interest rate decline? Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst at Everbright Securities, expects the LPR bonus to remain unchanged. "MLF rates can react quickly in the short term based on policy orientation. Therefore, the decline in MLF interest rates is easier to achieve the policy goal of guiding the interest rate of the loan market downward, and the regulation effect on short-term goals is better. Zhang Xu said.
The decline in LPR above 5 years is a point of view
Although the market has formed a consensus expectation for the downward trend of LPR, there is still controversy about the decline in LPR for the two terms, especially the linkage between LPR and mortgages in more than 5 years.
Many experts believe that the LPR of more than 5 years will be reduced this month. Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that under the influence of various regulatory policies, the current demand for investment and speculative housing has been curbed. The decline in LPR over 5 years can play a positive role in cost savings and stabilizing confidence for some buyers who just need to wait and see, and help to better meet reasonable housing needs.
From the perspective of decline, some experts believe that the decline of the two will remain the same. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, expects that in order to promote the stabilization and decline of financing costs in the real economy, LPR quotations for 1-year and 5-year periods on the 20th will most likely drop by 10 basis points.
Some experts believe that the decline in the two may be different, the 1-year LPR decline may be greater, and the LPR decline of more than 5 years linked to the mortgage will be more conservative. Wang Yifeng, chief banking analyst at Everbright Securities, expects that the LPR of the two terms may decline asymmetrically, and it is expected that the 1-year LPR may fall by 5 to 10 basis points on the 20th, and the LPR above 5 years may fall by 5 basis points.
The RRR cut is still expected
Experts said that after the interest rate cut on the 17th, the possibility of another decline in the policy interest rate in the short term is reduced, but stable economic growth requires further efforts in monetary policy regulation and control, and the RRR cut in the first quarter can still be expected, especially the regulatory authorities have made it clear that there is still some room for the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio.
Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst of Cinda Securities, said that in order to meet the needs of deposit growth, the bank reserve account needs to increase by 1.5 trillion yuan in 2022, which is not realistic to rely solely on MLF investment, and it is necessary to reduce the RRR at least once. Considering that the fiscal force is in the front, the possibility of reducing the RRR in the first quarter is the greatest.
Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Construction Investment Securities, believes that with the tight liquidity of the Spring Festival and the arrival of the tax period, especially in the first quarter when the special bonds were issued in advance, the market liquidity is facing a certain degree of tension. According to past experience, after the interest rate cut, there is a high probability that the liquidity will continue to be released in conjunction with the RRR cut.
Recently, the Fed's monetary policy has accelerated its tightening, and some people are worried that it may cause constraints on the mainland's monetary policy regulation. In this regard, Zhong Zhengsheng said that even if the Fed accelerates tightening in 2022, the mainland's monetary policy will still be "dominated by me".