The second year since the outbreak of the epidemic has passed, and as a leader in the tourism industry, the market value changes of listed tourism companies in the past year represent the confidence of the outside world in the industry to a certain extent. LvJieMedia found that between January 1, 2021 and December 31, 2021, the market value of 23 companies fell, accounting for 47.92%, and the total market value shrank by about 525.314 billion yuan. There are 25 companies with a market value increase, accounting for 52.08%, but the total increase in market value is only about 43.635 billion yuan. In other words, the market value of domestic tourism listed companies has evaporated by more than 480 billion yuan in the past year.
Among them, the market value of Tempus International fell by 55.9%, ranking first, and the market value has fallen from 2.559 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 1.128 billion yuan at the end of the year; the market value of Tuniu and Caesars Tourism fell by 48.75% and 42.89% respectively, ranking second and third in decline. There are 6 companies that have fallen by more than 30%, 7 companies that have fallen by 10% to 30%, and 10 companies that have fallen less than 10%. The two companies with the largest market value reduction are Meituan and China, whose market value evaporated by 328.498 billion yuan and 123.084 billion yuan respectively from the beginning of the year, which is also the only two companies among the 48 companies whose market value has evaporated by more than 100 billion yuan. However, in a strict sense, Meituan's wine and tourism and store sectors have not yet occupied a dominant position in its business system, and the tax-free business in China is not a traditional tourism business, so if the impact of changes in the market value of these two companies is excluded, the overall market value of the 46 listed companies is only about 30.097 billion yuan. It is worth noting that among the 48 listed tourism companies, the US stock travel companies have all experienced a decline in market value, and the decline is more than 17%.
Among the better performers in the secondary market, Haichang Ocean Park "led the way" with a growth rate of more than 5 times, and its market value soared from 1.599 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 10.4 billion yuan at the end of the year. Feiyang Group and CITS United followed with 51.11% and 49.32% respectively. There are 7 companies with an increase of more than 30%, 12 companies with an increase of between 10% and 30%, and 6 companies with an increase of less than 10%. The largest increase in market capitalization was for Jin Jiang Hotels, whose year-end market capitalization increased by 13.342 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, while Haichang Ocean Park and BTG Hotels ranked second and third with growth rates of 8.801 billion yuan and 8.342 billion yuan, respectively.
How has the market capitalization of these companies risen in the past year? Why the fall? Which sectors are better performing? Which tracks are not optimistic?
The OTA sector led the decline
From the performance point of view, Tempus International, which fell sharply, will not have a good time in 2021. In addition to the litigation, the company's net loss in the first three quarters has reached 132 million yuan, and the net assets at the end of the period were -22.8583 million yuan, which was already insolvent. What is even more helpless is that the bankruptcy reorganization plan that Tempus International has placed high hopes on has not been accepted by the court, although Tempus International, which is on the verge of delisting, said that it will file an appeal to continue to promote the restructuring matter, but whether the court will accept it is still unknown.
From the perspective of business type, the market value of the OTA sector of listed travel companies fell across the board in 2021, of which Tuniu's market value fell by 48.75%, while Meituan and Ctrip also fell by more than 20%.
Tuniu once faced the dilemma of being delisted from the NASDAQ listing for a long time below $1 in 2020. Shortly thereafter, Caissa Group announced that it would take over tuniu shares held by JD.com, and tuniu's stock price quickly rose to more than $1, temporarily getting out of this dilemma. Then, Tuniu's stock price once showed a cumulative increase of more than 200%. However, due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, Tuniu has not been able to fight a "turnaround battle" in 2021. It is reported that since July 2021, due to the sporadic epidemic in many places, the rain in Zhengzhou, typhoons in Shanghai, etc., in the month from July 20 to August 20, Tuniu has handled more than 85,000 user cancellation orders, of which the amount of packaged product cancellations involved exceeded 120 million yuan. The latest market capitalization shows that Tuniu's market value is still 130 million US dollars, equivalent to about 800 million yuan.
(Source: Snowball Net)
Meituan, which received an antitrust fine of 3.44 billion yuan last year, recorded an adjusted net loss of 5.5 billion yuan even after removing the impact of the fine, the largest loss in a single quarter since its listing. The data shows that Meituan has mainly invested money in new businesses including preferential selection, grocery shopping, flash purchase and shared travel. In the third quarter of 2021, Meituan's "New Business and Others" segment suffered an operating loss of RMB10.9 billion. However, the vigorous investment in new business has brought new users from lower-tier cities to Meituan, which has also rewarded Meituan's quarterly arrival, hotel and tourism revenue, with revenue of 8.621 billion yuan, an increase of 33.1% year-on-year; operating profit increased by 35.8% year-on-year to 3.8 billion yuan, while operating profit margin increased slightly from 43% to 43.9%. Can today's large-scale investment help me to get back the "lost market value" in the follow-up? We'll see.
Over the past year, the winter in the travel agency industry has continued. Fortunately, the market value of listed companies in the travel agency sector has not been one-sided, but the rise and fall have basically been equally divided, of which the market value of Feiyang Group, Utrust Tourism and CYTS has increased, and the market value of Lingnan Holdings, Caissa Tourism and other companies has declined.
Interestingly, the market value of Utrust Tourism and Caesars Tourism, which were also the targets of the merger and reorganization at the beginning of the year, and the "marriage" that was announced at the end of the year, has risen and fallen.
The reason is that Utrust Tourism received the blessing of "gold lord" Ali after "breaking up" with Caesars Tourism - only three days after announcing the "breakup" with Caesars Tourism, Utrust Tourism announced that it would accept Ali's 240 million "plus position". At the same time as the increase in shareholding, after the nomination of shareholders, Zhao Lei, vice president of Fliggy Travel and the current general manager of the resort business unit of Alibaba Group, became a non-independent director candidate for the fourth board of directors of Utrust Travel. In addition, the funds obtained by Feng Bin and Guo Hongbin from the transfer of equity will be used in the form of loan slips to maintain the daily operation of Utrust Tourism. This time Alibaba, Feng Bin and Guo Hongbin's re-"blood transfusion" is undoubtedly a "strong shot" for Utrust Tourism, and its market value is also logical.
(Source: Zhongxin Tourism Official Micro)
But in fact, Caesars Tourism has never given up on transformation and self-help. The company completed the relocation to Hainan in 2021, and has set up Sanya Tongsheng Commerce and Trade and Haikou Tongshengshijia Commerce and Trade in Haikou and Sanya respectively, as the main operator who intends to carry out tax-free business on the island, and actively strives for and participates in hainan's tax-free business on the island. At the same time, Caissa Tourism has also newly established a destination sector, forming four major sectors of new retail, food, destination and tourism, which will focus on tourism investment, destination operation, and digital marketing. Although many measures have been taken at the same time, Caissa Tourism has continued to lose money this year. In the first three quarters of this year, Caissa Tourism achieved revenue of 780 million yuan, down 34% year-on-year; net profit loss of 259 million yuan, down 34% year-on-year.
The natural scenery is outstanding
Among the many listed tourism companies that have achieved market value growth, Changbaishan, Guilin Tourism, Qujiang Cultural Tourism, Zhangjiajie, Jiuhua Tourism, Emeishan A, Huangshan Tourism and other state-owned and state-controlled old natural scenic spots have performed well, and their market value has increased in the past year. Among them, Changbaishan and Guilin Tourism have increased by more than 20%, and the market value of Qujiang Cultural Tourism, Zhangjiajie, Jiuhua Tourism and Emeishan A has reached double digits.
Among them, the performance of Changbai Mountain is particularly prominent. According to the data, the stock price in 2021 was the highest at 13.28 yuan, the highest point compared with the maximum increase at the beginning of the year reached 67.89%, a total of 6 times in 2021. The analysis believes that the reason for the rise of the stock is that it has been pulled up by the concept of ice and snow industry and revitalization of the northeast. In addition, with the opening of the first high-speed railway into Changbai Mountain, DunbaiKe Special, the external traffic bottleneck that has long plagued Changbai Mountain tourism will be completely broken.
Jiuhua Tourism, Emeishan A and Huangshan Tourism disclosed that although the number of people affected by the epidemic in the third quarter was affected, the impact of the epidemic in the first three quarters was alleviated compared with 2020, so the overall revenue increased by different margins year-on-year, of which the net profit of Jiuhua Tourism in the first three quarters increased by 303.83% year-on-year. This also reflects investors' great confidence in the recovery of natural scenic spots in the post-epidemic period.
In contrast, the market value growth of chain scenic spots in the past year has not been so satisfactory, such as OCT A, Songcheng Performing Arts, Dalian Shengya and other companies have declined to varying degrees, but Haichang Ocean Park is an exception.
In fact, since its listing, the stock price of Haichang Ocean Park has been "flat", and in the past two years, it has suffered large losses under the influence of the epidemic, which is not unrelated to the huge scale of interest-bearing liabilities and continuous financial expenses (expenses) under the company's large-scale expansion. However, the company's move to sell 100% of the theme park projects in Wuhan, Chengdu, Tianjin and Qingdao at the end of 2021 and 66% of the equity of the Zhengzhou project company in wuhan, Chengdu, Tianjin and Qingdao may mark an important change in the company's fundamentals and business strategy. Affected by this, the stock price of Haichang Ocean Park has been pushed higher since October. The analysis believes that from a financial point of view, Haichang Ocean Park will recover 6.53 billion yuan in cash from this transaction, which can be used to reduce the level of leverage and the scale of interest-bearing liabilities. From the perspective of strategic layout, Haichang Ocean Park will focus on the reorganization development path to promote asset-light business, which may be the best development path for Haichang Ocean Park.
Hotel chains are polarized
Unlike the "big fall" of the OTA plate and the "big rise" of the natural scenic spot plate, the market value of the company in the hotel chain sector is seriously polarized. On the one hand, the market value of BTG Hotels and Jin Jiang Hotels of the head hotel chain group continued to rise; on the other hand, the market value of Jinling Hotel, Dadonghai, Huazhu and Green Hotel all declined to varying degrees.
"Companies with market capitalization growth are similar", from the perspective of development strategy, BTG and Jin Jiang have invariably chosen to increase the number of mid-to-high-end hotels, thereby further consolidating the leading advantages of hotels.
Among them, Jin Jiang Hotel has maintained a relatively fast speed of store expansion in recent years. The company plans to open more than 15,000 hotels in China in 2023, and plans to add 10,000 new signed hotels and 7,000 new hotels in the next three years. In 2020, under the background of the epidemic, 1842 new stores were opened against the trend, 1500 stores were planned to be expanded in 2021, and 1266 new stores were opened in the first three quarters, and the progress was in line with expectations. At the same time, since 2020, the company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries have repeatedly divested the assets of budget hotels and continued to be responsible for the operation of these hotels in the form of custody, while releasing the income from asset appreciation, the asset-light strategy has gone further.
(Source: Jin Jiang Hotel official website)
BTG Hotels is also not to be outdone. The company plans to open 10,000 stores in the next three years in 2020, and will add about 5,000 new hotels from 2021 to 2023. The company's new stores are mainly based on the franchise model, as of the third quarter of 2021, the proportion of franchised stores has reached 86%, and there is still room for improvement from the average level of the same echelon. However, in 2021, the company issued a non-public issuance of A-share shares (revised draft), the company intends to non-public A-share shares to raise a total of no more than 3 billion yuan, which will be used for hotel expansion and renovation projects and repayment of loans from financial institutions. In addition, while adopting the franchise model to expand stores, the company has also launched a cloud hotel model with small investment and light management, deeply cultivated the sinking market, and exerted force on small and medium-sized independent hotels in an attempt to further expand the coverage of profitability.
Huazhu, another leading hotel group in China, opened 481 new hotels in the third quarter of 2021, and the opening rate also maintained growth. However, the Group's operating margin was only 2%, which was a sharp decline compared with 19.1% in the same period of the previous year or 22.7% in the previous quarter. Perhaps it is precisely because of the operational pressure it is facing, Jin Hui, CEO of Huazhu Group, said: "In the context of the epidemic, Huazhu has adjusted its strategy and paid more attention to 'lean growth'. In addition to the size of the hotel, the company now pays more attention to customer satisfaction and the profitability of franchisees. Some institutions believe that Huazhu's management's sudden more conservative attitude towards its near-term prospects may lead to continued downgrades in the short term. By the end of 2021, Huazhu Group's market value had fallen by more than 17%.
In addition to Huazhu Group, the operating pressure of several other hotel companies with declining market value also continued to appear. Green Hotel's operating profit for the third quarter of fiscal 2021 was RMB54.88 million, down 45.6% year-on-year. Occupancy rate (OCC) at all hotels in operation was 72.4 percent, down 6.7 percent from 79.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue per room (RevPAR) was RMB118, down 1.4% year-on-year. Jinling Hotel's net loss in the third quarter was 4.7055 million yuan, and the net profit decreased by 131.89% year-on-year. According to the data disclosed by Jinling Hotel, in July 2021, the new crown pneumonia epidemic at Nanjing Lukou International Airport severely impacted the summer tourism and business market, and the company's hotel business revenue from late July to August decreased significantly, down 22% from the same period last year.
Although the independent hotel Dadonghai turned a loss into a profit in the first three quarters, its revenue has not exceeded 100 million for many years, and it has lost money for two consecutive years after deducting non-net profit, and has now come to the brink of delisting. To make matters worse, the company's plan to "protect the shell" through asset restructuring in 2021 has once again failed, so it is reasonable for investors to decline in enthusiasm and market value.
Overall, in the past year, domestic tourism listed companies have generally come out of the rhythm of "falling and falling" in the capital market in 2020, and more than half of the market value of companies has risen. This is due to the easing of the domestic epidemic situation compared with the previous year, and also to the initiative of various enterprises to seek changes and constantly work the adjustment of their own assets, business structure and development strategies.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, China's total economic volume reached 1143670 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, and an average growth of 5.1% in two years, achieving a good start in the "14th Five-Year Plan". With the gradual improvement of the domestic economic environment, the increasing maturity of epidemic response technology and mechanisms, and the further release of national leisure and entertainment consumption demand, I believe that the performance of tourism stocks in the new year is more worthy of our expectations.