Author: Hanging Bi (public name of the same name), authorized to read the history of the release. Cao Cao usurped Han serially for 17 years
The Great War of Hanzhong has come to an end, and from this article on, this series will also enter the final Jingzhou wind and cloud part.
For a long time, Guan Yu's Northern Expedition was mostly criticized, believing that his failure directly led to the loss of Jingzhou, thus making the "Longzhong Pair" strategy completely bankrupt.
So, is this really the case?
Before arguing this question, let's first explore why Guan Yu launched the Northern Expedition at this time.
It seems that the reason is simple, because the "Longzhong Pair" has made it clear that sending troops from Jingzhou to the north is an important part of the whole plan, and it is also the right wing troop in the final pincer offensive, and Guan Yu seems to be practicing the policy of Longzhong.
However, the problem arises again, because the "Longzhong Pair" also has strict requirements for the timing of the dispatch of troops, and the main premises are as follows: cross Jingyi, Baoqi Rock Obstruction, Xihe Zhurong, Southern Fuyiyue, Outer Jie Hao Sun Quan, Internal Politics, and Changes in the World.
Among them, the four points of Spanning Jing yi, Baoqi Rock Obstruction, Xihe Zhurong, and Internal Politics are basically achieved, and the external marriage of Sun Quan can also be regarded as done on the surface. However, the goal of southern Fuyiyue and changing the world has not been achieved.
Not to mention that at that time, that is, in the early days of Zhuge Liang's reign, there were still large-scale rebellions in the southern central region, and the road to southern Fuyiyue was still very long, and the changes in the world were far away.
What is "the world is changing"?
This world refers to the world in the narrow sense, first of all, it certainly does not include Liu Bei's own territory, if there is chaos within himself, why talk about going out to fight?
Secondly, this world should not include Sun Quan's territory, because Longzhong is not an imaginary enemy of Sun Quan.
Therefore, "there is a change in the world" refers to changes that have definitely occurred within Cao Cao's regime.
Although there were three disturbances within Cao Cao in 218, in fact the threat was not large, and it was quickly quelled, and these disturbances were not enough to be regarded as "changes in the world".
Unless there were great changes within Cao Wei, such as Cao Cao's sudden illness and death, or a rebellion in a major military town, such as the Three Rebellions in Huainan.
Only a change of this level can be regarded as a "change in the world" and an excellent opportunity to send troops to the Northern Expedition, and this is obviously not the situation in the last years of Jian'an.
That is to say, Guan Yu's Northern Expedition this time does not conform to the established planning strategy of the "Longzhong Pair".
So, does this mean that Guan Yu violated Liu Bei's instructions and launched a military operation without authorization? It is reasonable to say that this should not be, Guan Yu has always been loyal all these years, how can he be so bold?
I think whether Guan Yu is making up his own mind, this matter is not absolute, it can be said that it is neither nor is it.
The reason for Guan Yu's autonomous behavior is simple, because in the military operations he was responsible for in the past, the original text of the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" used the words "envoy", "dispatch", and "order" respectively. For example, when guarding Xia Pi, leading the water army south, and competing with Sun Quan for the three counties of Jingzhou, it can be confirmed that Guan Yu is acting according to orders.
The attack of the first lord killed Xuzhou's assassin Shi Che, so that Yu would guard PiCheng and do too much to guard the matter, while he was still Xiao Pei. (Three Kingdoms Zhi Shu Shu Guan Zhang Ma Huang Zhao Chuan VI)
The first lord will cross the river south from Fan, and send Yu to take hundreds of boats to Jiangling. (Three Kingdoms Zhi Shu Shu Guan Zhang Ma Huang Zhao Chuan VI)
The first lord led 50,000 troops to the public security, and ordered Guan Yu to enter Yiyang. (Three Kingdoms Chronicles of Shu Shu
When recording Liu Bei's recent seizure of the Eastern Three Counties, the Chronicle of the Three Kingdoms also adopted this method of writing.
Liu Feng, Meng Da, and Li Ping were sent to attack Shen Yu shangyong. (Three Kingdoms Chronicles of Shu Shu
However, guan Yu's Northern Expedition was different this time, and the Chronicle of the Three Kingdoms did not explicitly say that he received Liu Bei's orders.
At the age of the year, Yu led the crowd to attack Cao Ren Yu Fan. (Three Kingdoms Zhi Shu Shu Guan Zhang Ma Huang Zhao Chuan VI)
I think Chen Shou wrote this for a certain purpose, because Liu Bei probably did not directly order it.
But this is not to say that this matter is completely Guan Yu's own decision, because he is likely to have obtained a certain range of autonomy.
At that time, Guan Yu's power and position were the first person under Liu Bei's account, and among the four heavy generals, he was the only fake jie, Ma Chao Zhang Fei was only a fake jie, and Huang Zhong had nothing.
On the other hand, Guan Yu, as the governor of Jingzhou, also held a considerable amount of real power.
Although the false festival does not mean that he has absolute autonomy, this can at least show Liu Bei's trust in him, then it is still possible to give limited autonomy.
What is this limited autonomy? I think it is likely to authorize him to wait for an opportunity to seize Xiangyang. But that's about it, and it's not enough to continue to expand the war.
Because according to the plan of the "Longzhong Pair", when it comes to launching a general offensive, the two roads must cooperate with each other, and it is necessary for Liu Bei to personally order it, and it is absolutely impossible to act without authorization.
Then he ordered a general to take the army of Jingzhou to Xiangwan and Luo. (Three Kingdoms ZhiShu Book Zhuge Liang Biography V)
On the other hand, the capture of Xiangyang was also a prerequisite for launching a general offensive, and at the time of the "Longzhong Pair", Xiangyang was still in the hands of Liu Biao, so at that time Zhuge Liang proposed that the goal of crossing Jingyi included Xiangyang.
If you want to go north from Jingzhou, Xiangyang must be taken down, because only by taking Xiangyang can you enter the Nanyang Basin.
If Xiangyang could not be attacked, attacking Wancheng would be empty talk, and Luoyang would be even more out of reach.
Therefore, without Xiangyang, it cannot be regarded as a complete realization of the goal of cross-jingyi.
Later generations believed that Guan Yu's purpose of this Northern Expedition was to advance into the Central Plains, in part because he achieved results that greatly exceeded expectations.
However, from a common sense point of view, Guan Yu wanted to compete with Cao Cao only by the strength of the three counties, which was incomprehensible, and his original intention should be to launch a war of limited scale, first take Xiangyang and then say, and this was within the scope of his authority, but later the development of the situation began to get out of control.
That is to say, the capture of Xiangyang was an early preparation for the future north from Jingzhou, not the real ultimate battle.
On the other hand, Liu Bei's appointment of Guan Yu as the Taishou of Xiangyang may also have the implication of letting him wait for an opportunity to capture Xiangyang. After all, The Brazilian Taishou Zhang Fei has already taken Brazil County.
And the last point is the connection between Hanzhong and Jingzhou. In the strategic planning of Longzhong, Hanzhong and Nanjun were the forward positions of the two routes, but if there was no connection between the two routes, it was easy to be broken by the opponents.
The capture of Dongsan Commandery was to solve this problem, because from Hanzhong to the east through Dongsan County, it would reach the Nanyang Basin, and as long as Xiangyang was taken, the connection between Hanzhong and Nan County would be completely opened.
With the above three reasons, Liu Bei Group should be more active in capturing Xiangyang.
Based on this, Liu Bei would most likely authorize Guan Yu to attack Xiangyang at the right time, and the specific combat actions would be decided by him.
Only in this way can a reasonable explanation be made as to whether Guan Yu is sending troops on his own initiative.
This is also the reason why during Guan Yu's Northern Expedition, Liu Bei did not send troops to cooperate, because this in itself was not the ultimate battle against Cao Wei, but a local war of limited scale, and Liu Bei naturally did not need to "lead the people of Yizhou out of Qin Chuan".
In short, Guan Yu did not disobey Liu Bei's orders to provoke a war without authorization, nor did he violate the strategic plan of the Longzhong Pair. Although he is the actual executor and should be directly responsible for the failure, fundamentally, Guan Yu is still loyal to his duties, and there is no problem in the general direction, but he has made mistakes in specific operations.
Since the biggest problem is not Guan Yu, who is it? Could it be that something is wrong with "Longzhong Pair" itself?
There are not a few people who hold this view, and the most questioned of them is the point of transcending the benefits of Jing.
There are two main reasons, one is the geographical factor, Jingzhou and Yizhou are inconvenient to transport, the distance is far away, it is difficult to support each other; the second is the diplomatic factor, because the cross-jingyi and foreign alliances with Sun Quan are contradictory.
Let's look at it little by little, is it really not feasible to cross the Jingyi in the first place in terms of geographical conditions?
In fact, this is not the case, because there is a precedent, and there are people who have partially achieved it before, and there are people who hope to achieve this goal in its entirety, that is, Gongsun Shu, who divided Yizhou at the turn of the two Han Dynasties.
At that time, Gongsun Shu's subordinate Cao Li Xiong said: First occupy Hanzhong, guard the Chu Chuan Road, and then occupy Ba County, and hold the Hanguan (present-day Fengjie area of Chongqing) on the Yangtze River, which corresponds to the Baoqi Rock Barrier proposed in the Longzhong Pair.
In the north, according to Hanzhong, Du Bao and Xie Zhi were dangerous; in the east, He guarded Ba County, refusing to defend the mouth of the pass. (Later Han Shu Gongsun Shu Lie biography)
After that, if you don't have the opportunity to farm at home, if you have the opportunity, you will go out to attack the city, and then you will go all the way into Qindi, all the way to Weizhou and Yangzhou, and then the great cause can be accomplished. This is similar to the strategy of "Longzhong Pair" waiting until "the world has changed" to attack on both fronts.
If you see profit, you will send troops and land slightly, and if you are not profitable, you will stick to it and force farmers. The East Descends the Han River to peek into the Qin Land, and the South Shun River flows to Zhen Jing and Yang. (Later Han Shu Gongsun Shu Lie biography)
This should be the prototype of Zhuge Liang's "Longzhong Pair", and it is also an important reference for him to formulate this plan, and later during Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, the Wei Ming Emperor Cao Rui also mentioned in the edict that Zhuge Liang was imitating Li Xiong.
And Liang cherishes Li Xiong's foolish ambition. (Three Kingdoms Chronicle of the Ming Emperor of Wei Shuming, 3rd)
And Gongsun Shu's cavalry lieutenant Jing Handan also persuaded him to just sit back in Yizhou and wait for death, and should take the initiative to attack, all the way to Guanzhong, all the way to capture Jiangling, which was a supplement to Li Xiong's previous plan, talking about the importance of Nan County, and Gongsun Shu also agreed with it.
Ling Tian Rong was based on Gangneung, Linjiang Nanhui, and Wushan Mountain, which was in the east of present-day Wushan County, Kuizhou. Fortifications will be fortified, and wu and Chu will be passed on, and the south of Changsha will follow the wind. Ling Yan cen out of Hanzhong, Ding Sanfu, Tianshui and Longxi surrendered to themselves. In this way, the sea is shaking, and it is hoped that there will be great benefits. (Later Han Shu Gongsun Shu Lie biography)
Of course, this plan is very radical, and it needs to be realized by pouring out the country, but with Gongsun describing the situation at that time, is there any better choice?
In the end, Gongsun Shu did not take this risk under the influence of the people around him, but only let his subordinate Tian Rong go to Yiling to recruit old subordinates to make an attempt, and naturally could not take Jiangling with this strength.
Three years later, Gongsun Shu figured it out, sent tens of thousands of troops to the east, won consecutive battles along the way, and even Yidao, which Liu Bei could not take to the death, was captured, but the offensive stopped abruptly from then on, and then there was no progress, and tens of thousands of troops stayed in the western border area of Jingzhou for three years without doing anything.
For the plan of crossing Jingyi, Gongsun Shu is approved. Although he lost his last chance because of his timidity, this is not to say that the plan is not feasible. If Liu Bei could achieve this situation later, how could there be a fiasco of Yi Ting?
Therefore, it is geographically feasible to cross the Jingyi, and there are similar precedents.
In addition, if Guan Yu captured Xiangyang again, Nan Commandery could get support from Bashu and Hanzhong, and it would never be an isolated situation. In terms of geographical conditions, "Longzhong Pair" does not have any hard wounds.
Then, looking at the diplomatic aspect, whether to keep Jingzhou will inevitably break with Sun Quan?
I don't think this is absolute, and it's not that the two sides can't talk. In fact, the situation after the demarcation of the Xiangshui river was not Liu Bei's bottom line, his bottom line was to keep Nan County, as long as this could achieve the ideal situation expected by Gongsun Shu at that time.
The reason is very simple, Nan County is an important base for the Northern Expedition, and it is an area directly connected to Yizhou, while Lingling County and Wuling County are not so important, just icing on the cake, and these two counties can actually be used as bargaining chips.
Under cao Cao's pressure, Sun Quan could also recognize the importance of the alliance, and if the interests or threats were not large enough, he would not easily abandon the alliance.
Sun Quan could even spit out the Lingling Commandery in his hand, in fact, he was not so greedy, as long as Liu Bei showed a certain degree of sincerity, the relationship between the two sides would not break down, but unfortunately Liu Bei never did this.
All in all, there is nothing wrong with "Longzhong Pair", and the plan of crossing Jingyi is not the reason for the major setback of Liu Bei Group.
Zhuge Liang put forward such a far-sighted plan when the situation in the world was still unclear, and his insight was absolutely outstanding.
In fact, in recent years, Zhuge Liang has basically been the number one in logistics and internal affairs, and there is almost no chance of really going out with the army, and he should not be able to say anything about the foreign strategic policy of the entire group, because since the beginning of entering Sichuan, there has been no record of his suggestions.
Later, Liu Bei insisted on conquering Sun Quan in the east, and Zhuge Liang was definitely opposed, but he did not advise him, because he knew that Liu Bei would not listen to what he said.
Before Liu Bei's death, Zhuge Liang did not have a high voice in military and diplomatic affairs, everything was Liu Bei's discretionary decision, and Zhuge Liang was really not responsible for the loss of Jingzhou.
Since Zhuge Liang had no problems, and Guan Yu only had some minor problems, then the only one with big problems could be Liu Bei.
In fact, this is also the case, although Liu Bei agreed with the "Longzhong Pair", he did not seriously implement it.
When Cao Cao was on a southern expedition that year, Zhuge Liang suggested that Liu Bei attack Xiangyang first and take Liu Chun, so that Jingzhou was in control, which was actually the first step in the "Longzhong Pair". However, Liu Bei actually refused because he could not bear it.
Of course, this is not Liu Bei's true words, you must know that he is a person who has abandoned his wife and son more than once, and he is still ruthless to his wife and children, so how can he not be tolerant of outsiders? He said that he could not bear to take away Liu Zhang's foundation, so why did he bear to take away Liu Zhang's foundation?
Liu Bei's real thought should be that he felt that Xiangyang City was high and deep, and the soldiers were well fed, while Cao Jun was fleeting, and he was afraid that he could not fight and run away.
However, his decision was not wise, because Liu Chun did not have the prestige to command the people at all, and his men all defected and followed Liu Bei.
And at the beginning, Zhuge Liang also clearly said that Liu Biao could not defend Jingzhou, this is a great opportunity given to you by heaven, how did Liu Bei forget?
Therefore, as long as Liu Liu had the determination, it was possible for him to take Xiangyang and use this as a foundation to fight against Cao Cao, and this plan was worth trying anyway, because the result would not be worse than the later fiasco at Dangyang, but unfortunately he missed the opportunity to take Jingzhou this time.
Regarding the foreign alliance with Sun Quan, Liu Bei did not pay attention to it, but simply assumed that Sun Quan did not have the determination to completely tear his face, and the second Jingzhou crisis in 215 did not arouse his vigilance.
With the unclear diplomatic situation at that time, the Jingzhou side was no longer suitable for taking the initiative to attack, and it was the best policy to hold steady, but unfortunately Liu Bei did not give Guan Yu any warning.
In fact, marrying Sun Quan is the core of "Longzhong Pair", and its priority is higher than that of Jingyi, which is also something that Zhuge Liang mentioned at the beginning, but Liu Bei has always paid insufficient attention to this point.
This is the fundamental reason why Liu Bei Group took the lead in the competition between the three major forces for Jingzhou, and Guan Yu's life was doomed to end in tragedy...
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