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The eruption of the Tonga volcano caused a "year without summer", which needs to be examined | Beijing News column

author:Beijing News

The rapid spread of true and false news has further increased global concerns that the eruption of Tonga could trigger disasters.

According to the Beijing News, on January 14 and 15, local time, a volcanic eruption occurred on the island of Aha Apai in Tongahun, and the capital Nuku'alofa observed a tsunami. Agence France-Presse reported earlier on Jan. 17: "Monitoring has found another major eruption of Tonga's undersea volcano. However, Agence France-Presse is currently clarifying on the social platform Twitter, saying that the new volcanic eruption has not yet been confirmed by the monitoring agency and will delete the relevant reports.

Previously, as soon as the news of the eruption of the Tonga volcano came out, it caused huge attention on some social media. Especially because tonga's communication with the outside world was interrupted soon after the eruption, many people, after seeing the volcanic eruption picture from outer space, could not help but worry, will the island nation of Tonga "disappear" or "sink to the bottom of the sea" in the volcanic eruption? Some bloggers have rendered it in conjunction with the current epidemic, the value of fear and anxiety has increased significantly, and strange theories similar to the "end of the world" seem to have a market.

The eruption of the Tonga volcano caused a "year without summer", which needs to be examined | Beijing News column

On January 15, 2022, a submarine volcano erupted in the South Pacific island nation of Tonga, and the satellite captured the moment of the eruption. Figure/IC photo

Volcanic eruptions are not completely without warning

But no wonder. In the past two years or so, the epidemic has spread around the world, and various secondary problems caused by the epidemic, there have always been many unpleasant things. The human psyche is very strange, and the more such a time comes, the easier it is to accept ominous emotions, pessimistic self-suggestion or mutual cues between groups. This kind of group hint often affects the mood of many people. All in all, it may be mean to say that this disaster is unfounded, but it is not necessary to be overly anxious.

It is true that in the face of natural disasters of the level of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, people often cannot accurately predict and rarely fight back. From this point of view, whether it is the time node or the intensity of the disaster, people have no choice, basically rely on luck - or " only pray to God". In the face of nature, human beings are ultimately small and fragile, not to mention measured by the scale of the universe and the stars, more like sand and dust.

But this does not mean that human beings have done nothing in the face of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. At least in reducing the direct damage caused by natural disasters to humanity, there is already a considerable capacity, and in post-disaster relief, human society today is stronger than most of the previous historical period – as demonstrated in the fight against THE NEW CROWN epidemic.

The eruption of the Tonga volcano was unexpected, but not without warning. Tonga is located on the fault zone of the Pacific Plate and the Indian Ocean Plate, and there have been historical records of "great eruptions", and increasingly active records have been observed in recent years. Therefore, the eruption of the Tonga volcano is not unexpected and particularly unexpected.

Geographically, Tonga is located in the southeastern Pacific Ocean, far from major continents around the world, and the resulting tsunamis are limited in scale. The impact of the depth and distance of geological activity that led to the tsunami on the destructive force is decisive. Tonga's "remoteness" means that the direct damage caused to humans by tsunamis and volcanic ash is minimal.

In fact, even New Zealand, the closest to Tonga, is not greatly affected at this time. Of course, in this case, in order to take precautions, including due to ocean currents, local terrain caused by the unexpected surge in tsunami destructive power, the time and intensity of early warnings in various countries are redundant.

The eruption of the Tonga volcano caused a "year without summer", which needs to be examined | Beijing News column

On January 16, after a violent eruption of an undersea volcano in Tonga, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued a continuous tsunami warning in the early morning, and the rescue department of Jiuci City prepared emergency supplies. Figure/IC photo

The claim that caused the "year without summer" has yet to be examined

Another consequence of the volcanic eruption in Tonga that has made many people nervous and anxious is the so-called "summerless year" - a large amount of volcanic ash erupts into the stratosphere, and the long-term inability of volcanic ash aerosols to settle has a parasol effect, resulting in a global temperature drop.

That's true, but there's no doubt that not all levels of volcanic eruptions can cause human-perceived climate impacts. At present, the eruption of the Tonga volcano did not transport enough volcanic ash into the stratosphere, and its impact on the world, especially in the northern hemisphere, was not as good as the previous eruptions of Pinatubo and Tambora volcanoes. Therefore, the possibility of the volcanic eruption in Tonga causing a "summerless year" needs further scientific demonstration.

Of course, the eruption of The Tonga volcano will continue for quite a long time, perhaps weeks or even years. Theoretically, no one can rule out the possibility of a larger eruption after the first two eruptions, and naturally cannot rule out the possibility of a larger and more destructive disaster. However, as of now, it has not received a formal warning from relevant professional scientific research institutions around the world.

Disasters are repeated, and although human beings are small and fragile in the face of nature, their will to survive is strong, and their will to move forward in life is also strong. This will has enabled life on Earth to experience countless disasters and to pass countless hardships for mankind. In addition to the survival instinct, human beings have the ability to compassion for each other, to support each other, to connect with each other, and it is this ability that gives us the confidence to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of spreading one unreliable message after another and letting fear and anxiety dim the heart, it is better to put more power into the work of compassion, support and reconstruction.

Beijing News special writer | Song Jinbo (columnist)

Edit | Li Xiaoxiao

Proofreading | Zhao Lin

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