【Text/Observer Network Columnist Song Luzheng】
The Sino-US game is already the most strategic event that determines the direction of today's world and future history. In this context, the United States has frequently used various means, among which the most stimulating Chinese nerves is the "Taiwan card".
In November 2021, the German Adenauer Foundation held a seminar in Singapore, at which Machaenia William, a veteran diplomat who had been Singapore's permanent representative to the United Nations for more than three decades, analyzed that China is rational in almost all fields, with one exception: on The issue of Taiwan, China is emotional. Beijing is willing to pay a staggering economic and military price to prevent Taiwan's independence.
Of course, this is a family statement, but it can also be seen from it that the Taiwan issue is particular and important to China.
The Five Stages of Taiwan-US Relations
Historically, Taiwan-US relations have gone through five stages of development.
After the end of World War II, Taiwan returned to the motherland. The Taiwan issue, which was supposed to arise after the First Sino-Japanese War, has been resolved historically, but the ensuing civil war and external factors have once again made Taiwan a historic issue for China.
On October 1, 1949, the Communist Party, which was invincible in the civil war, established the People's Republic of China. The Kuomintang government was defeated and retreated to Taiwan. Until the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950, this was the first stage of Taiwan-U.S. relations.
At that time, in order to compete with the Soviet Union for the Chinese government, and at the same time, the United States was extremely disgusted by the corruption and incompetence of the Kuomintang, and explicitly renounced Taiwan.
On January 5, 1950, U.S. President Harry S. Truman declared that the United States had no ambitions to plunder Taiwan or other Chinese territories, that the United States had no intention of acquiring special rights or establishing military bases in Taiwan, and that the United States did not intend to use armed forces to interfere in its current situation. The U.S. government will not take any measures sufficient to draw the United States into China's civil strife, nor will it provide military assistance or guidance to Chinese troops in Taiwan.
Truman also commented on his ally kuomintang government in his memoirs:
"Jiang Jun has never been a good unit. We gave about three hundred and fifty million yuan of military equipment to these so-called free Chinese soldiers, and as a result, on the front from Beijing to Nanjing, Chiang Kai-shek's army of about five million people was defeated by 300,000 communist troops, and the Communist Party took these military equipment and swept Chiang Kai-shek and his men out of the Chinese mainland. To be honest, he has never been a thing. They had asked me to send millions of American troops to rescue him, but I refused. Chiang Kai-shek is hopeless, their corruption is innate, and I am determined not to waste even the life of an American to save him. I don't care what they say. They continue to taunt and accuse me of softening communism and saying that I am mediocre and ignorant, but I will not succumb to these accusations. I have never changed my opinion of Jiang and his gang, and these bastards should all be imprisoned. ”
He even accused the leaders of the Kuomintang government of "they are thieves, everyone is a thief" and "they stole nearly seven hundred and fifty million DOLLARs from the billions of dollars we gave to the Chiang government." They stole the money, but they invested it in São Paulo, Brazil, and New York real estate right under our noses. ”
Although the Cold War had begun by this time, the United States decided to completely abandon the worthless Kuomintang regime that had retreated to Taiwan.
It is only that this historical period is extremely short, but only eight months. A Korean civil war changed all that. The United States and Taiwan immediately became allies and continued until the severance of diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan in 1979.
On June 27, 1950, two days after the outbreak of the Korean War, U.S. President Harry S. Truman made another statement about Taiwan within a year: Given the occupation of Taiwan by Communist forces, it would directly threaten U.S. security in the Pacific. The Seventh Fleet was therefore ordered to prevent any attack on Taiwan.
At this stage, the United States has made every effort to maintain Taiwan's status in the United Nations on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has provided a large amount of economic and military assistance to Taiwan. Under the premise of obtaining security guarantees, Taiwan has used the assistance provided by the United States to leap to the rank of the four Asian tigers.
The third phase lasted from 1979 to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. During this period, out of the need to confront the Soviet Union, the United States attached great importance to its relations with the mainland and accepted the three demands of the mainland to establish diplomatic relations, namely, severing diplomatic relations, terminating the US-Taiwan mutual defense treaty, and withdrawing troops.
The us-Taiwan relations have been constantly regressing, and the arms sales to Taiwan have also decreased year by year, which is regarded as the second time that the United States has abandoned and sacrificed Taiwan.
In the fourth phase, from the end of the Cold War to 2010, U.S.-Taiwan relations continued to heat up. With the end of the Cold War, the common interests of China and the United States have disappeared, the mainland has lost its strategic position, and at the same time, the Chinese mainland is the only major socialist country.
Planning Outline: Adhere to "one country, two systems" and promote the reunification of the motherland. Image source: Visual China
On the one hand, this has led to the loss of checks and balances on the mainland by the United States, and on the other hand, the differences in systems and values between the two sides have become a new major contradiction. At this time, the United States began to violate its commitment to Chinese mainland and play the "Taiwan card." This is not only a consideration of internal political and economic interests, such as currying favor with domestic military industrial groups and catering to domestic anti-China forces, but also the purpose of using the "Taiwan card" to compete with China.
The latest phase is from 2010 to the present. In the context of the Sino-US strategic game, Taiwan's status has risen to become a strategic tool of the United States. In 2010, the mainland surpassed Japan to become the second largest in the world, preventing the mainland from surpassing the United States as its highest national strategy.
The Taiwan card has also risen from the tactical level or low strategic level in the past to the level of national strategy in the United States. The United States not only wants to prevent cross-strait reunification, but also wants Taiwan to play its strategic goal of attrition and interference with the mainland's development.
At this stage, the United States will maintain unofficial communication with Taiwan in form and pay more attention to substantive support. There are three main aspects.
The first is economic support. There are already many signals, such as the five-year hiatus of the U.S.-Taiwan Trade and Investment Architecture Agreement (TIFA), which was also reactivated on June 30, 2020. The United States has also openly supported Taiwan's participation in other economic agreements, such as the Japan-led CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership).
The second is to break with the convention in the military, give Taiwan advanced weapons and information technology, and enhance Taiwan's defensive capability. The aim, of course, is to increase the cost of cross-strait reunification, especially in the event of war, and to strive to make it permanent. This would both provide enough time for U.S. aid and increase the uncertainty and risk of mainland action. Of course, this line of thinking is not limited to Taiwan, but also the United States gives Australia nuclear submarines.
The third is the so-called "diplomatic" support. Not only will the U.S. Congress and government officials "visit" Taiwan, but there will be future incidents similar to Lithuania, and the United States will also ask allies such as the European Union to increase support for Taiwan. How long this stage can last depends on the outcome of the Sino-US game and on the sudden change in the international situation.
Looking back at this period of history, we can draw two conclusions: The United States does not have a so-called Taiwan policy or strategy, but it is only an integral part of the US China policy or strategy.
Second, the United States adjusts its Taiwan policy with its own interests at its core, either completely abandoning it or fully supporting it, just as it does with the Afghan government it single-handedly supports. Taiwan may change from a "chess piece" to an "outcast" at any time, or from an "outcast" to a "chess piece."
The cost and risk of Taiwan becoming a "pawn" of the United States
In order to compete strategically with China, the United States has shaped Taiwan into a "pawn" that can be sacrificed at any time.
Taiwan's situation is different within the perceptions of the KMT and the DPP. The KMT does not want Taiwan to become a "pawn" in the Sino-US game, but to seek profits from the Sino-US game, or not only to act as a "pawn," but also to a certain extent to be a "chess player." Simply put, it is "Pro-U.S. and Friends Day and China". In this way, Taiwan can become the object of all parties' cages.
This line of thinking of the Kuomintang has also achieved remarkable results. During Ma Ying-jeou's administration, the two sides of the strait "diplomatic truce," the mainland has always made concessions, and Japan has made rare concessions in negotiations on fishery resources.
In 2013, the two sides signed a fisheries agreement, in which Japan allowed Taiwanese fishing boats to operate in the "exclusive economic zone", and the United States also reduced pressure on Taiwan. However, as soon as the results of the 2016 Taiwan general election came out and the Democratic Progressive Party won, Japan immediately interrupted the economic and trade negotiations with Taiwan. The United States has also demanded that Taiwan open up and that It buy more large and inappropriate weapons.
The DPP hopes to achieve Taiwan independence with the help of the United States, so it actively participates in the strategic game between the mainland and the United States.
If it is only analyzed from the perspective of Taiwan's own interests, the KMT's approach is better. Because no matter whether the Sino-US showdown is still reconciled, it must be Taiwan that is damaged and sacrificed. In a showdown between China and the United States, Taiwan became a battlefield and a ruin. Even if we win "independence," we will lose everything, and without the support of the mainland market, it will be difficult for Taiwan's economy to recover. After all, after the showdown, Taiwan has lost its value, and it is difficult for the hard-hit United States to support Taiwan.
If China and the United States compromise, they will certainly sacrifice Taiwan's interests. For the United States, the exchange of Taiwan's interests and Chinese mainland is an empty glove white wolf, a million profits. Some scholars believe that Sino-US competition is structural and that the United States will not make a deal to abandon Taiwan. In fact, the view of Sino-US trading is shared by both academic and political circles in the United States.
In 2016, sullivan, now the national security adviser (the same identity that opened the road to establish diplomatic relations between China and the United States) was helping Hillary Clinton run. The New York Times published an article by a Harvard scholar proposing to exchange one trillion U.S. dollars for Taiwan. The New York Times and Harvard University are both iconic in the United States.
Sullivan emailed the article to Hillary, who replied: This is a good idea. Later, Hillary Clinton's mailbox was hacked and put on the Internet, and the world learned about this incident. It can be said that private communication is more reflective of real positions.
The most important cost and risk of Taiwan becoming a "pawn" is that no matter what the outcome of the Sino-US game, Taiwan is an object of abandonment or sacrifice.
From the perspective of the current DPP ruling, the biggest cost taiwan pays is to antagonize the mainland and fall into a high risk of political, economic, and external affairs, and the cost of confrontation can be imagined. In the absence of security, neither the capital on the island nor the capital outside the island can rest assured, but will find various ways to avoid danger, and the same is true for talents and resources.
A clever player must not only look at his own interests at the moment of the game, but also look at the situation after the end of the game in the future, especially his own position. Just as world war II was far from over, Britain, the United States, and the Soviet Union had already focused on the division of power in the post-war world.
Does Taiwan have any other options?
From the perspective of pure interests and without involving values or the concept of reunification and independence, Taiwan should really reflect deeply.
First, is "Taiwan independence" possible? If this is not possible, it is necessary to consider how to maximize Taiwan's interests in the process of reunification.
The core of this is how to judge the development trend of the East and the West, whether the modernization of the mainland can eventually succeed, and whether the West can resolve the current challenges.
At least for now, it is a fact that the east rises and the west falls. Personally, I think that from the history of China's ups and downs, once it rises, it tends to last for hundreds of years. The rise of the West was often stagnant and unsustainable, such as the Roman Empire.
In addition, human history has experienced three major historical stages of land power, sea power and land power revival, and China is the representative of land power and the confirmer of this historical trend. The decline of Japan and Britain was not caused not only by one individual or one event factor, but by the general trend of the whole history.
"Taiwan independence" is impossible, and Chen Shui-bian in the past was also very clear -- although the gap in strength between the two sides of the strait at that time was far less than it is today, Tsai Ing-wen now is of course more aware. Some people are worried that if Lai Qingde is elected in 2024, he will step on the red line between the two sides of the strait, which is completely unfounded.
The United States wants to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait because it is in its best interests and can play the Taiwan card from left to right. Therefore, the United States cannot pass this pass. Just as Chen Shui-bian said when he was tried in court, he is a dog in the United States, and the United States will do whatever he wants. This is actually a portrayal of Taiwan-US relations, how dare Lai Qingde rebel?
In addition, not only the United States wants to maintain the status quo, but taiwan's polls for many years have also shown that the majority of the people also want to maintain the status quo, the proportion of which is as high as 87%, and more than half of the people believe that Taiwan does not have the strength to be "independent". It can be said that Lai Qingde has opposition from the United States outside and the people at home do not support him, so how dare he step on the red line of reunification and independence?
If we speak from the perspective of the mainland, we have long been prepared for the legal theory and strength of "opposing independence." In 2005, the Anti-Secession Law was enacted, which can be cracked down on at any time in accordance with the law. Another point, all parties are also very clear, if Taiwan takes the initiative to provoke, the legitimacy of US intervention will be lost.
American society and people do not even know Taiwan and Thailand, and it is impossible to support the United States in a war under the circumstances of Taiwan's active provocation. In fact, for the mainland, Taiwan's initiative to provoke is precisely the lowest-cost opportunity for reunification.
From the perspective of global international relations, there are far more important things than Taiwan: the epidemic, the 2022 French election, the 2024 US election. If the epidemic continues until 2024, the West will be hurt.
If the far right, which has more and more support, comes to power in 2022, the EU is in danger of disintegrating, the global international order is in chaos, and the first to be dragged into the water will be Europe's ally, the United States.
If Trump is re-elected in 2024, the world will be completely plunged into complete uncertainty. If one of these three comes true, the world, especially the West, will be difficult to bear, and if all of them come true, the concept of the West may become a historical term.
Second, Taiwan should learn from the DPRK's experience. North Korea has long lived in the cracks between great powers, forming a superb survival wisdom. Taiwan clearly has serious deficiencies.
From a strategic point of view, the confrontation between Taiwan and the mainland across the most powerful gorge is very unwise. North Korea is a China that stands on its side, against the United States, which is far away. Taiwan, on the other hand, is based on the United States, which is far away, and confronts the nearby mainland.
Although North Korea is weak and its economy cannot be compared with Taiwan's, it can take its own interests as its highest goal and make the big countries use them for its own use, rather than becoming a vassal of the big powers, and have complete independence. Taiwan, on the other hand, is completely dependent on the United States, and whether it is willing or unwilling, it can only act as a "pawn" of the United States.
Third, although the interests of political parties and individuals are important, they should not be higher than the overall interests of Taiwan. Of course, this is also the logic of scholars, which is completely different from political logic.
Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: The provocation of "Taiwan independence" has not stopped for a day, and the tension in the Taiwan Strait will not slow down for a day. Image source: Visual China
In this epidemic, if the DPP really puts the health and life of the Taiwan people above all else, it can ask the mainland for vaccines or accept the German vaccine represented by the mainland at the beginning of the epidemic. But the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen chose to sacrifice the interests of Taiwan and the Taiwanese people for their own interests.
Fourth, Taiwan cannot rely on the United States. During the Korean War, both China and the United States sent troops into the Korean Peninsula. But after the war, China withdrew its troops from North Korea, and the United States remained stationed in South Korea. Foreign troops are a form of bullying to any country.
Not only that, but the United States also has to make the occupied countries bear the military expenses. If North Korea can enjoy full independence, South Korea does not. China has never interfered with North Korea's path, nor will it force It to transplant the Chinese model. The United States will force South Korea to adopt its own system.
The precondition for the United States to help a country or region is to allow it to station troops. When the Korean War broke out, U.S. troops entered Taiwan, and the so-called "diplomatic rhetoric" was protection, and the essence was occupation.
The United States, which only sees its allies as tools for profit, has abandoned Taiwan many times and changed its China policy many times. Specific to Taiwan, the United States does not care whether Taiwan will be destroyed, it only cares about whether Taiwan can consume Chinese mainland and whether it can block China's rise.
The United States can do anything for its own benefit. In 2020, when the epidemic broke out in Europe and the United States, the United States, which was in shortage of masks, snatched masks from European allies such as France. French media reported that the masks ordered by France were transported to the bottom of the cargo plane, and the United States took the goods with twice as much cash. This is essentially a life-threatening act.
China and India have a bad relationship, and India is an ally of the United States. When the epidemic broke out in India, the first call for help from the United States was rejected, but China took the initiative to help.
The bottom line of Chinese civilization is different from that of the West, and Chinese civilization pays attention to bottom-line thinking and will consider what to do in the worst case.
Suppose a most extreme scenario would require the evacuation of more than 20 million people if a super earthquake or other natural disaster occurs in Taiwan. The people of Taiwan think about it, and the DPP also thinks about it: Will the United States accept it or will the mainland accept it?
When Taiwan has difficulty in reaching out to help, it is the one who can really rely on it. When Taiwan has no use value, will the United States still care about Taiwan? Not to mention that from the perspective of maximizing the interests of the Chinese nation and only from the perspective of maximizing Taiwan's own interests, Taiwan should also make a decision as early as possible, get rid of its own passive fate of acting as a "pawn", and join hands with the mainland to face a fiercely competitive international community that is anarchy and self-interested.
This article is the exclusive manuscript of the observer network, the content of the article is purely the author's personal views, does not represent the platform views, unauthorized, may not be reproduced, otherwise will be investigated for legal responsibility. Pay attention to the observer network WeChat guanchacn, read interesting articles every day.