Can Messi defend the Ballon d'Or? Some professional institutions give the probability list: Messi only ranks third!

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At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on January 18, FIFA will hold an award ceremony, when the World Footballer of the Year will be officially announced. At the moment, Messi is still the biggest favourite, and he is also recognized as the basic lock-in of the world footballer of the year. Mr. World Footballer of the Year was also the last of all the awards last year, with the Ballon d'Or and UEFA Best of the Year awarded long ago, as were individual awards with very low gold content, such as the Dubai Globe Football Awards and the Turin Sport Golden Globe Awards, which were also announced last year.

If the World Footballer of the Year also ends awarding, then the next world football will completely enter a new round of the cycle. There is a World Cup this year, so the World Cup champions and the World Cup Golden Globes have been added. There are not many players who have won the Ballon d'Or in the World Cup, led by Messi and Modric. Although the World Cup Ballon d'Or Awards are not as good as the Ballon d'Or in terms of personal glory, the past two sessions have been won by the boss of the runner-up team, and the gold content is also quite high. In addition, those regular league champions, Champions League champions, Ballon d'Or and World Footballer of the Year will compete as usual.

So, can Messi defend his Ballon d'Or? Messi has been in average form in Ligue 1 this season and has not had enough attendance, which has left him behind at the starting line. But Messi also has the advantage that his team is a favorite to win the championship. Greater Paris, the fourth in the world, is the first team with Manchester City and Bayern to win the Champions League. Argentina completed the qualitative change after winning the Copa America, and they are considered by many football practitioners to be the same favorites as France.

If Messi has a World Cup title or a Champions League title, then unless there are other super giants who lead the team to win the World Cup, he is very likely to defend the Ballon d'Or as long as the data is in place. If there are Champions League champions and World Cup winners, then Messi will win his eighth Ballon d'Or, as well as The World Footballer of the Year. However, there are professional institutions that give the Golden Globe Award probability list, messi only ranks third!

According to the report on January 17, a British professional organization updated the probability of the 2022 Ballon d'Or Awards before the official announcement of the World Footballer of the Year, in which Salah unexpectedly reached the top, Levan ranked second, Messi only ranked third, and C Ronaldo ranked sixth. The top ten other positions, from fourth to ninth, are in order: Mbappe, Benzema, Ronaldo, Haland, De Bruyne, Mahrez. The tenth has five players tied for sterling, Neymar, Foden, Kane and B.S.

Salah's top ranking is a bit outrageous, unless Liverpool win the Champions League and the World Cup champions have a team without supergiants, such as Spain or Italy, while Messi, Levan, Mbappe, Neymar and Ronaldo and other colleagues perform collectively. Levan's second place is also a bit overrated, because in the World Cup year, it is still the national team. Even if Bayern wins the Champions League, it depends on the records of France, Argentina and Portugal. Another element of reference is whether the Voted Ballon d'Or selection period will be postponed until the end of the World Cup. This will also affect the probability of the Golden Globes.

If the Ballon d'Or selection cycle includes the World Cup, then I think the top ten probabilities of this year's Ballon d'Or should be this: Messi, Mbappe, Levan, Benzema, De Bruyne, Neymar, Salah, Cristiano, Haaland, Kane.