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Big Bears: The whole world is a false carnival, but a few outsiders and eccentrics have a unique vision
A well-known financial blogger "Li Sanxiao 0008" posted on Weibo, saying that he lost 15 million yuan due to shorting thermal coal.
He said: 400 hands of empty thermal coal, none of which have been added to the warehouse, and then every day was forced to flatten, 15 million was wiped out. However, he will not complain about the world, (this failure) is just his destiny and talent is a little worse. No matter what you do, bigotry is a basic quality of a person's success, but success or failure may be (just) a thought. Will accept their fate with confidence.
Short selling is a common way of operation in the stock and futures markets, which refers to the anticipation of future market declines, selling the standard contract in hand at the price, and buying after the market falls, making a profit difference.
For example: Apple is now 100 yuan a piece, B thinks that the price of apples will be lower than 100 yuan / one after 3 months, but A is just the opposite, thinking that Apple will rise in the future, so A and B signed a contract, the contract stipulates that B will sell an apple to A for 100 yuan after 3 months.
If the price of apples falls to 50 yuan / one in the middle, then B can buy apples at 50 yuan and sell them to A at 100 yuan at maturity, thereby earning 50 yuan of profits, but if the price of apples rises sharply, after 3 months, apples are as high as 200 yuan, then B can only bite his teeth to buy 200 yuan apples, with a net loss of 100 yuan.
Obviously, short selling is bearish, only the price will have profit margins when it goes down, but if the prediction is wrong, the price does not fall but rises, it will lose, and the amount of loss is theoretically unlimited. This is unfortunately the case for this blogger.
As can be seen from the screenshot of the trading software uploaded by the blogger, he bought ZhengMei 2201, which is a thermal coal futures contract that expires in January 2022, the direction is empty, and the average opening price is 1116.27 yuan.
That is to say, as long as the price of thermal coal is lower than 1116.27 yuan, he will make money, but above 1116.27 yuan, he will suffer losses.
Looking at the price curve of the main force of thermal coal, we can see that the price of thermal coal has risen all the way since July 1 (closing price: 782.6 yuan), and so far, the price has risen to 1755.4 yuan, an increase of up to 55%. Far exceeded the blogger's expectations, and was eventually liquidated, losing all the principal.
Futures investment is very risky, many experienced investors have "planted pits", and recently even many listed companies have lost money.
Just last week, October 13, a listed company that makes diapers and sanitary napkins, Haoyue Nursing (605009. SH) issued a statement saying:
As of the futures settlement on October 11, 2021, the futures account of Jiangsu Haoyue Industrial Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Hangzhou Haoyue, also held 310 lots of coke 2201 contracts, with a floating loss of 24.1632 million yuan; 10 lots of coking coal 2111 contracts, with a floating loss of 501,900 yuan; and 579 contracts of coking coal 2201, with a floating loss of 28.8273 million yuan. The Company's 2021 futures investment exposure and the maximum loss it may face is the cumulative loss (including floating loss) in 2021 plus the remaining equity, totaling $153.1 million, representing 5.49% of the audited net assets in 2020.
According to the summary table of futures investment released by it, as of October 11, Jiangsu Haoyue's loss in futures has reached nearly 70 million.
It is not terrible to make mistakes, it is terrible to not have the courage to admit mistakes and the determination to correct them.
Obviously, Jiangsu Haoyue fully realized this, they decided to stop the operation of coke and coking coal futures in an orderly manner, and chose to reduce and close the current positions, and terminate the futures business as soon as possible.
On October 19, another listed company, Chongqing Qinan Mechanical and Electrical Co., Ltd., also issued an announcement, announcing that it would close all the futures contracts it had built in the early stage on the 18th, and the cumulative loss of futures in 2021 would be as high as 128.4956 million yuan.
Recently, the price of "black" futures has continued to rise, and it is not a loss to do more, most of them are short, they may think that they are "drunk in the world and I am awake", decisively short these seemingly "very irrational" prices, but helpless, for short sellers, time is the enemy, you may not be able to survive to the day when the value returns.
10 years ago, there was a classic movie "The Big Short", which described how a few discerning outsiders and eccentrics relied on keen insight to analyze and verify various details in the market during the false carnival of the whole world, using history and data to successfully predict the coming 2008 financial crisis in advance. Even if they made rich preparations for this, they survived for 2 years in the voice of doubt, relying on the psychological endurance of ordinary people to finally reap the fruits of victory, and at the same time, many people fell before dawn.
【Small surprise at the end of the article】
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【Investment is risky, the information contained in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.] 】