How miserable were Hong Kong stocks last year?
Hang Seng Index -14.08%, Hang Seng SoE Index -23.30%, Hang Seng Technology Index -32.70%.
On the other hand, the main indexes of A-shares are much better than those of Hong Kong stocks: the Shanghai Composite Index 4.80%, the CSI 300 Index -5.20%, the ChiNext Index 12.02%, and the CSI 500 Index 15.58%.
The main overseas markets are the US Nasdaq Index with 21.39%, the Dow Jones Index with 18.73%, and the S&P 500 Index with 26.89%.
In this comparison, Hong Kong stocks will have a long bear market in 2021.
Looking at the funds invested in Hong Kong stocks, we mainly choose active partial stock funds with "Hong Kong stocks" and "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" in their names, with a scale of more than 100 million and a time of more than 1 year. A total of 100 funds.
From the perspective of income, the performance of these funds investing in Hong Kong stocks is seriously differentiated, but when we look carefully at the funds with high returns, the main investment proportion is in A shares, and there are few Hong Kong stock components. Those funds with a large proportion of Hong Kong stocks are not very optimistic.
Hong Kong stocks are the global financial market, but most of the companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are inland companies. Last year, many people shouted "grabbing pricing power", and now the domestic trading volume of Hong Kong stocks has become the first. The more special thing about Hong Kong stocks is that they are affected by both overseas markets and domestic ones. For example, in the past year, anti-monopoly policies have caused some Hong Kong-listed technology Internet companies to be "cracked down".
In addition, it is said that the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is low, but Hong Kong stocks are undervalued for many years. In Hong Kong stocks, there are only two states of "low valuation" and "lower valuation". Simply buying Hong Kong stocks from the valuation judgment is actually relatively rash.
Some optimistic views of logic. Some scarce Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks will have less impact as the margins of anti-monopoly policies diminish. And from the perspective of the origin of the policy, it is more standardized for enterprises and promotes healthy competition. Some Internet technology companies in Hong Kong stocks are very good in terms of revenue and profitability.
Some pharmaceutical industries in Hong Kong stocks have also been adjusted for a long time. It's not that buying now will definitely rebound, but the chance of buying now and falling again will not be too large, and the amplitude will not be large.
At the beginning of 2022, Hong Kong stocks are significantly better than A-shares, and the China-Wide Internet Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index have also begun to rebound violently. Is this a signal of a counter-offensive?
Let's look at some of the institutional views on Hong Kong stocks:
Lin Peng, a big man after the private, "in the Hong Kong stock market, the lack of understanding of common prosperity by foreign investors has triggered a short-term withdrawal of foreign capital, and I believe that the introduction of anti-monopoly policies will be clear in the early 2022." For Internet companies, embracing supervision is an inevitable choice for the new situation, for managers, analysis of which companies' business strategies are affected, profitability and valuation models are suppressed is the focus, on the whole, Hong Kong stocks by the overall market under the impact of the sharp decline, in a large bottom area, select high-quality Hong Kong stocks and hold the need for patience and the understanding of holders. ”
ICBC Credit Suisse Fund said in a single article, "Global macroeconomic trends, real estate debt sentiment, Internet regulatory policies and fundamentals and other factors have led to the recent shock recovery of Hong Kong stocks, the current liquidity of the Hong Kong market is in a relatively stable state, the valuation of overseas Chinese stocks is also at a historically low level, the marginal improvement trend of Hong Kong stocks is gradually clear, and it is long-term optimistic about the Internet technology, biomedicine and other sectors in Hong Kong stocks with large market space, better business models and strong scarcity." ”
Personally, I feel that the opportunities in Hong Kong stocks are now greater than the risks, but they are not risk-free. In 2022, it is expected that the sectors of the Hong Kong stock market, such as the Internet, medicine and other sectors, will still be good.