With the return of the left, can the Latin American "pink wave" be reproduced?
Source: Chahar Institute
WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue
Insight vol.47
The full text is about 6500 words
Reading time 10 minutes
On December 19, 2021, chile's general election came to an end. Left-Wing "pro-dignity" candidate Gabriel Boric defeated José Antonio Castor, the candidate of the right-wing political party coalition Christian Social Front, by a clear margin, to be elected president. Throughout 2021, Latin American left-wing leaders have won successive victories in Peru, Honduras and Chile. Earlier, countries such as Argentina, Bolivia and Mexico also welcomed left-wing leaders. At the same time, the left-wing forces represented by former President Lula are also showing a trend of return in Brazil. It is not difficult to see that today's Political Landscape in Latin America has shifted from "left and right" to "left-right co-governance", and there is even a possibility of a recurrence of the "pink wave" in the future. This issue will explore in depth the domestic and international background that has caused the return of left-wing forces in Latin America in recent years, and take the four regional powers of Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Brazil as examples to analyze the differences in the domestic situation and the performance of left-wing political parties in the four countries, and view the political phenomenon of the return of left-wing forces in Latin America from a more comprehensive and three-dimensional perspective.
01. Reasons for the return of the Left
At the Second Summit of the Union of South American Nations in 2007,
Left-wing leaders come together, network image source
The overall "left-leaning" of Latin American countries this time is not a special event, and for a long time there has been a "left-right swing" in Latin American politics. To this end, European and American academic leaders have used the "Pink Tide" to describe the several left-wing returns in History, especially since the 21st century. So, what is the beginning of the recent return of the Left in Latin America? Can the left break through the "pendulum effect" of Latin American politics and achieve long-term governance? What is the politics facing different left-wing leaders? These issues remain the focus of attention.
On the whole, there are three main reasons for the return of the left in Latin America: First, the right-wing ruling party has failed the COVID-19 epidemic control measures. The second is the growing dissatisfaction of the Latin American people with right-wing neoliberalism. The third is the Biden administration's adjustment of Trump's "maximum pressure" policy.
First, the discontent with the right-wing ruling party caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is one of the direct causes of the return of the left in Latin America. The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a severe economic blow to Latin America, while also severely weakening the stability of the region's already fragile and corrupt democratic institutional framework. As of March 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic has killed more than 750,000 Latin Americans and reduced the region's GDP by 7.7%. The damage done to the local economy will not be recovered for a long time. While weaker companies have closed down, they have also pushed countless middle classes into poverty, exacerbating social inequality and the gap between rich and poor. The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean has assessed that the region's economic development has taken a 14-year setback as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has also exacerbated the disillusionment of Latin Americans with the ruling party. Citizens are strongly dissatisfied with the failure of the public health system and the government's unreasonable measures to control the epidemic. Corrupt Latin American right-wing governments not only have scandals over the preparation of medical supplies, but have even seen incidents of "cutting in line" and "jumping off" for the elite when they are vaccinated. To make matters worse, the region's rapid economic setbacks and the sharp increase in spending on the pandemic have left governments heavily indebted. In the subsequent response to the epidemic, this drawback has gradually become prominent, hindering the ability of the right-wing ruling government to continue to respond to the crisis. At the same time, border closures due to the pandemic have deprived many criminal organizations of their main source of income, further increasing crime rates in most countries in Latin America. Against this backdrop, protests in Latin America have also risen one after another and are constantly expanding.
In October 2019, Chileans took to the streets
Second, Latin American countries have never stopped reflecting on the neoliberal economic model. As mentioned above, the long-standing "left-right oscillation" in Latin American regional politics is also reflected in the relationship between Latin American neoliberalism and opponents. The struggle against and pro-neoliberalism has never stopped in Latin America. As early as the 1980s, Latin American countries carried out neoliberal reforms in order to overcome the economic crisis and resolve development problems. However, the overall results of the reform have been unsatisfactory and have brought a series of serious negative effects. For example, the problem of poverty has intensified, the gap between the rich and the poor is serious, and social contradictions have intensified. As a result, Latin American countries in the 1990s began to reflect on neoliberal reforms and anti-neoliberal ideas emerged. After entering the 21st century, two development models, anti-neoliberalism and neoliberalism, still coexist in Latin America. But in recent years, neoliberalism has once again attracted widespread attention and controversy in Latin America. The basic logic inherent in it is that social poverty will decrease with economic growth, and the elimination of social poverty is the inevitable result of economic growth. Therefore, under neoliberalism, all policy designs are centered on accelerating economic growth and improving economic efficiency.
Neoliberal policies had a remarkable effect in the first decade of the 21st century, with a sharp decline in poverty and a growing middle class. But after 2014, Latin America's economy continued to decline, the poor rebounded, the people who had been lifted out of poverty returned to poverty, the right-wing neoliberal ruling party was criticized by the public, and the alternative proposed by the left party received more support.
Finally, there is the influence of the Biden administration in the United States. As the "backyard" of the United States, Latin America has long been one of the regions that US foreign policymakers have focused on. Before the Biden administration took office, the Trump administration's Latin American policy had always adopted the method of "maximum pressure" to suppress the left and ensure that its power was difficult to grow. But the Biden administration has adjusted its Latin American policy. Biden has stepped up his investments in Latin America in the "B3W" ("Rebuilding a Better World"). Overall, Biden has also aimed to suppress left-wing forces in Latin America, but by helping right-wing latin American governments address corruption and economic development. From this point of view, the Biden administration's Latin American policy has, to some extent, provided a relatively loose space for the left forces in Latin America.
It should be noted that the influence of American politics on the return of the Left in Latin America is limited, and the main reason for its return is mainly from the economic field. But in any case, the direction of the new round of Latin American politics brings the question of how to get along with latin America in the future, which is not only of concern to the United States, but also crucial to China's Latin American policy.
02. The return of left-wing forces in Latin America
Country differences
The fragility of the right-wing forces under the new crown epidemic, the bottleneck of the neoliberal economic model, and the obvious reduction of pressure from the United States... These epochal backgrounds seem to be powerfully pushing the "pink wave" to rise again. However, it is inevitable to predict the political trend in Latin America based on these clues alone. We must realize that the left forces in Latin America have risen in different ways, and their governing philosophy and governance capabilities are even more different. At the same time, they also withstand various resistances and challenges from inside and outside. This means that the left's ability to remain in power for a long time is still fraught with great uncertainty.
In July 2018, Mexico held the largest election in history, in addition to the change of president and the government on behalf of him, the governor of Kyushu and a total of 628 members of the Senate and the House of Representatives were also re-elected on the same day, so the scale was unprecedented. In the presidential election, the left-wing party National Renewal Movement Party candidate, Obrador, won the election on behalf of the campaign coalition "Let's Make History Together" with 53.17% of the vote. But the election has been called a "violent, bloody" election. The election coincided with the construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA), and some people of insight who wanted to change the status quo became a stumbling block on the road to the expansion of the drug cartel's power. According to statistics, between the beginning of the campaign in September 2017 and June 2018, at least 132 Mexican politicians were killed, of which 48 were electoral candidates. The victory of The left-wing candidate, Obrador, who advocates "anti-corruption" and "anti-mafia", is closely related to the current government's misinformation, popular voice and its personal governance platform.
Source: Wilsoncenter
During the administration of former President Peña, despite the government's push for reforms in areas such as energy and anti-corruption, little was achieved. In the field of energy reform, the Peña government abolished fuel price controls and subsidies, which led to a sharp increase in fuel prices, which triggered strong social dissatisfaction. But Mr. Obrador took advantage of this pledging to freeze fuel prices after coming to power, a policy that won him widespread support. In the area of anti-corruption, although the Government of Peña had introduced an anti-corruption reform law, its implementation was fraught with difficulties. Due to the lack of checks and balances and supervision, even many officials of the government of the ruling Party at the time, the Prima facie party, were involved in corruption cases, which not only made it difficult to reform, which not only reduced the credibility of the government, but even affected the PRI's election in 2018. On a personal level, during his tenure as mayor of Mexico City (2000-2005), Obrador left a good impression on citizens as "diligent and honest", and his personal efforts earned him widespread popularity among the population.
The election of Aubrador ended many years of "three-legged" politics in Mexico of the Privatist Party, the National Action Party and the Democratic Revolutionary Party. Of the 128 seats in the Senate and 500 seats in the House of Representatives, the National Baath Party led by Aubrador won 58 and 193 seats respectively, while the party won a simple majority of seats in both houses with the "Let's Make History Together" coalition, which greatly facilitated the implementation of the left-wing governing platform. Moreover, as Mexico's first left-wing president to come to power in more than four decades, Mr. Obrador has embraced radical left-wing ideals and has launched a series of initiatives to combat corruption, promote economic growth and improve social livelihoods. In the fight against corruption, the new Government has established independent professional anti-corruption prosecutors and increased transparency requirements for public officials; in terms of improving the economy, the new Government has promoted domestic competition and job creation by reducing barriers to foreign investment and trade to attract investment, including increasing women's participation in the labour market; and in the area of promoting equality, the new Government has focused its education expenditure on pre-school, primary and secondary schools and education in disadvantaged areas, A new scholarship and vocational training programme for young people was also launched.
However, as Mexico's third-largest drug production base, drug crime remains a challenge that every government must face. In 2019, Obrador declared the official end of the "Mexican drug war," a joint anti-drug operation launched by former Mexican President Calderon with the fight against drug cartels as a top priority. The end of the war does not mean that the Mexican government has achieved remarkable results in the fight against drug crime, but rather that the new government has shifted its focus to promoting economic growth, ensuring public safety and social equality in order to fundamentally prepare for the drug problem.
Another challenge facing the Obrador administration is the U.S.-Mexico relationship, where, on the one hand, more than 80 percent of Mexico's exports are directed to the U.S. market, and economic complementarity makes Mexico highly dependent on the United States. In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, and Mexico's exports to the United States fell by 17%, dragging the economy back by 6 or 7 percentage points. It can be said that to some extent, the United States has decided Mexico, so reducing the impact of the US economic and financial cycle on Mexico will require changes in the new administration's industrial structure, dependence on the United States, and diplomatic strategy. On the other hand, due to the peculiarities of geographical relations and the immigration law reform of the Biden administration in the United States, the problem and pressure of illegal immigration in Mexico is more severe than in previous years. For this reason, in 2021, He has implemented a series of job creation projects with some countries in the Caribbean and Central America to reduce the generation of illegal immigrants from the source.
Compared with Mexico, the "pendulum effect" caused by the rotation of left and right forces is more common in other Latin American countries. In Chile, the candidate of the left-wing coalition, Boric, won the new Chilean general election with nearly 56% of the vote, becoming the youngest president in Chilean history, and completing the transition of power again with the right-leaning Pinera government. This is another representative event in the revival of left-wing political power in Latin America. Like many Latin American countries, Chile has been elected since the breakup of the Pinochet dictatorship in 1990, with the right taking a back seat and the government long dominated by moderately transformative center-left. After the global economic crisis, affected by the after-effects of the continued economic recession, the center-left showed fatigue in domestic governance, the center-right returned to power, and Chilean politics experienced certain fluctuations. The left wing that grew up in the post-Pinochet era, represented by Boric, seized the opportunity of economic weakness under the new crown epidemic and reversed the situation of Chile's "left-right struggle". Boric is only 35 years old this year, just meeting the minimum age requirement to run for President of Chile. He himself participated in several student movements since 2011, rose to fame in anti-government protests, and by virtue of this election to the House of Representatives in 2013. In 2019, there was a nationwide political upheaval in Chile, with protesters questioning a range of problems under the neoliberal economic system — inadequate housing, low wages, the gap between rich and poor, privatization of public services, an expensive and complex health care system, and so on, arguing that the government was constantly narrowing its capacity and even absent from social construction, demanding economic reforms. Taking this as an opportunity, the 2020 referendum approved the establishment of a new Constituent Assembly, and candidates such as Boric began proposing new reforms for constitutional amendments.
Echoing the biggest rival, the right-wing candidate Castel, Boric is also one of the few candidates since Chile's democratization who has advocated left-leaning social reforms without a middle-line approach. The Washington Post noted that the two candidates entered the final stages of the general election, reflecting the continued polarization of Chilean politics, which has long been opposed. Indeed, Boric's policy ideas are also intended to distinguish themselves from traditional center-left governments, and to point the finger at the unimpressed divide between rich and poor during his tenure and the loose governments brought about by neoliberal economic policies. In his campaign, Boric promised to provide universal health insurance, reduce household higher education debt, reform the pension system, increase taxes on the wealthy to increase government revenues, and invest finances in social financing. Compared with the rigid conservatism of Custer's reforms, Boric's reforms, in addition to being loyally embraced by radical voters, were also friendlier to a large number of moderate, older middle voters. New York University scholar Jorge Castaneda said that Latin America has long had two different styles of "leftism", the moderate and modern left led by Chile and Uruguay in the past 20 years, and the radical and nationalist left in Venezuela, Cuba and other countries. While Boric presents the world with a more skewer toward the latter, his move toward centrism and the unity of many center-left parties in the late electoral period suggest that his government is more likely to return to a moderate social-democratic line.
Boric is elected as chile's new president, credit: The New York Times
Despite amplified ideological polarization, the return of the Chilean left still reflects the importance of "centrist" voters in electoral politics. In the first round of voting, Boric lagged behind his rival Custer, and he immediately expanded his left-wing alliance, and with the higher prestige of the Chilean Communist Party already in the position, he joined the center-left Christian Democratic Party, the Socialist Party, the Democratic Party, etc., and was able to gain higher support in the second round of voting in both the city and the countryside. After his election, Boric also stressed that he would dilute the extreme political color of the candidates in the election, which reminded people that the socio-political balance should not be ignored when paying attention to the "left-right struggle" in Latin America.
Moreover, the case of Chile once again highlights the ability of economic development and reform issues to shape the political landscape in Latin America. Latin America's long-standing role as a primary producer in the world division of labor, politically influenced by the United States, and extremely fragile economically in the face of financial volatility, make both the rise to power of the right and the re-emergence of the left more like a helpless choice in the face of an impasse than a victory with reforms that break structural contradictions. For its part, the Boric government must identify a new finance minister as soon as possible and draw up a plan to deliver on commitments on a range of issues, from the pension system to education spending. Xu Shicheng, a member of the International Advisory Committee of the Chahar Society, director of the Latin American Research Center, and researcher at the Latin American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the economic difficulties caused by the epidemic have helped the left, but this change is cyclical.
Also affected by the "pendulum effect", that is, the cyclical changes of social opinion and ideology "left" and "right", there is also Argentina in the 2019 general election. From 2003 to 2015, the center-left Justice Party leader Kirchner and his wife Christina served as presidents, blowing the winds of the left; in the face of the crumbling third-largest economy in Latin America, the leader of the center-right alliance, Macri, came to power in 2015, advocating for reduced economic intervention, the removal of financial regulations, etc., but the economy did not improve, and its former supporters began to join the wave of opposition. In the 2019 general election, the left-wing figure Fernandez defeated Macri with 47.83% of the vote, and his running mate, former female President Cristina, was elected vice president, and Argentina began to return to the "right back left" pattern.
Image source: BBC
In recent years, Argentina's inflation, unemployment and poverty problems have been particularly serious, in this election, voters have lost patience and confidence in Macri's policy of continuing to implement austerity measures and reviving the Argentine economy, and voters' eagerness to change the number of political parties to govern is an important reason for the return of the Argentine left. However, whether or not argentina's already devastated economy can be healed is a major challenge for Fernandez's administration.
In response to the economic woes, former Argentine President Macri signed a record $57 billion bailout package with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), making Fernandez's negotiations with the IMF to repay foreign currency bonds the first challenge facing the new government, however, in March 2021, Argentina's vice president said Argentina could not repay the IMF's $45 billion bonds. Due to multiple factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and economic stagnation, prices in Argentina are rising and public dissatisfaction with the government is intensifying.
In addition, Argentina's midterm elections, which ended in November, showed a decline in national support for the left-wing ruling coalition, losing control of the Senate for the first time in nearly 40 years and some seats in the House of Representatives. Fernandez's defeat in the midterm elections means that his next two years will become very difficult, and he will need to deal with the domestic economic and social crisis and seek a new debt agreement with the IMF to stabilize the economy. In addition, the failure of the mid-term elections may further exacerbate the internal divisions of the ruling party alliance and deal with the differences and cooperation between different parties, which is also a challenge for Fernandez in the next two years.
In the next year, the political changes in Brazil, Colombia and other Latin American political systems will make the results of the return of the left more clear, especially in Brazil, as the most important economy in Latin America, the current President Bolsonaro has begun to prepare for re-election early, as the first right-wing president since Brazil resumed civilian politics, he is very similar to Trump's policy guidelines and governing style, externally vigilant against globalization and China's rise, internally questioning the legitimacy of the election process. After a series of reorganizations, his former Social Democratic Party was merged into the right-wing political group "Union of Brazil" and rose to become the largest party in the House of Representatives, posing a considerable challenge to the return of the left. In response, Brazil's left-wing forces also mobilized mass demonstrations on October 2 in an attempt to further escalate the electoral campaign, but whether they can overwhelm the right in the campaign remains to be seen.
brief summary
It is undeniable that the series of changes in the political situation in Latin America today are conducive to the development and growth of left-wing forces. However, from a country-by-country perspective, whether it is a country in the ruling stage of a left-wing party, a country where the left has tasted the fruits of victory, or a country where the left and right wings are fiercely fighting, they are carrying the expectations of the people and are also under unimaginable pressure. In short, whether the left can break through the "pendulum effect" of Latin American politics, achieve long-term governance, and reproduce the glory of the "pink wave" still depends on solid achievements rather than empty slogans. This is mainly reflected in whether the left can lead the country out of the haze of the epidemic through strong governance capabilities, whether it can make effective reforms or improvements to the neoliberal economy, explore an economic development model suitable for national conditions, and whether it can prevent internal differentiation while maintaining benign communication with opposition parties.
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*Disclaimer: This article only represents the personal views of the author and does not represent the position of this official account
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