Zhang Jingwei: Hou Kepi let the bullets fly first

New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi (left) and Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe (right) attend the Vision Summit to talk about urban epidemic prevention. (Courtesy of Taipei City Hall / Fax from Taipei)

2021 is coming to an end, and the pace of elections starting next year is becoming more and more compact, in addition to the local elections at the end of 2022 and the taiwan regional leadership elections in early 2024. After the four votes, the blue-green territory and the political leader's market have undergone subtle changes, the DPP has gained momentum, lai Qingde has shaken off the new situation of Zheng Wencan's succession, and it is more stable; the KMT is sluggish and chaotic, although the masses rise together, they cannot unite and cooperate, and they always shadow internal friction. In contrast, the "blue-white union" and "Hou Kebei" formed by Hou Youyi, mayor of New Taipei, and Ke Wenzhe, mayor of Taipei, have become the hope of defeating lai Qingde of the Democratic Progressive Party.

According to the latest poll by formosa Boulevard Electronics, "Who is best suited to be the leader of the next Taiwan region," Lai Ching-te climbed from 25.5 percent in October to 30.6 percent in December, not only leading the crowd, but also falling from 23 percent in October to 22 percent in December than Hou Youyi, who was originally leading each other, and widening to 8.6 percent; while Ko Wen-che maintained a flat set of 14.1 percent, Zhu Lilun cut off from 9 percent to 4.5 percent, and Zheng Wencan also slipped from 6.4 percent to 4.3 percent.

Combining the overall analysis of a number of polls in the past, we can see that: First, although Hou Youyi has always won the top spot in terms of trust, preference, and even optimism, he has clearly lagged behind Lai Qingde on the issue of "the most suitable person to serve as the leader of the next Taiwan region." This shows whether he is "fit for the future." The public opinion will comprehensively consider the strength and relations between himself and the political party to which he belongs, and Lai has risen because of the DPP's combat strength and unity, while Hou has been slightly looked down upon. Second, Hou's "non-expressive statement" made on the eve of the voting case was obviously negatively impacted, and it remains to be seen whether it can further obtain the recognition and return of the middle voters in the future.

The Kuomintang that lost Hou is very likely to shrink even more, but if Hou is completely cut off from the Kuomintang, the pattern may also be limited, and it is difficult to predict whether he can open the sea and the sky from now on. On the other hand, if the weak Kuomintang Central Committee today only wants to satisfy the happiness and revenge of the deep blue corner, even if it kills Hou, it cannot come up with demands and deeds that truly unite the whole party and inspire people's hearts, and will only die faster and more tragically.

Judging from the current polls, Hou Ruo and Lai are mostly in the lead and the odds of winning are not small; if they join Ko Wenzhe's three-strong competition, the chances of Lai winning will increase; Hou Ke will lose both, and he will still have the opportunity to fight; in order to unite and win, let the DPP step down and give Taiwan the opportunity to be reborn, this is Hou Kepei's most powerful demand and imagination.

Hou Ke and Hou Ke are actually completely different in terms of background and personality style, but there are two points that are subtly consistent. One is that the two are the only politicians who have won the DPP in the polls in recent years, so even if they don't have to be blue, or not so blue, they have always been expected by Blue Camp supporters. Second, in addition to the blue-green changes in the territory of Taiwan's political parties, the middle voters have been greatly expanded, which can be described as "the one who wins the middle wins the world." Hou Ke and his political style can just attract a large number of middle and young voters, which is the key to the decisive victory in the future leadership election in the Taiwan region.

The personalities of the two characters are also completely complementary, Ke is a thoroughly publicized political animal, full of critical sharpness and ridicule every day, and Hou is a deliberately low-key administrative faction, completely committed to the implementation of politics, do not touch political topics to the point of being unacceptable. Now that ke Wenzhe is about to expire, he is a ranger who kills all sides, while Hou Youyi is a bit like Zhu Yuanzhang before he really became a climate, with the three strategies of "building walls high, accumulating grain, and slowly becoming king".

In the past, it was said that Hou Ke was difficult to match, and who was right and who was not sure, but under the deduction of the current situation, the impossible will become possible. Hou Ke's matching is not successful, we must first see how much space there is for cooperation between the blue and white parties in 2022, and the rules and consensus of marshals Hou, Zhu, Zhao, Han and Guo within the Kuomintang. At the moment, let the bullets fly randomly and the shells explode, and then make a decision after the mind is clear.