Follow daily grains and oils to understand the frontline dynamics.
Near the end of the year, the domestic wheat and corn market price has seen another wave of decline. The latest data show that today's Hebei Jinmalang wheat purchase price was adjusted to 1.42 yuan / catty, down 5%; Hebei Jinsha River before the rain wheat 1.43 yuan / jin, after the rain wheat 1.418 yuan / jin, up 3%; Xinxiang Wudelipmai 1.428 yuan / jin, down 5%, Suiping Wutori 1.45 yuan / jin, down 5%.
In the corn market, Jilin Boda Biochemical 2500 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan; Jilin fuel ethanol 2530 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan; Cargill biochemical 2440 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan; Suihua Haotian 1.195 yuan / jin, down 5%, COFCO Yushu 2460 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan. Overall, it is also mainly down.
At present, the market is only one month away from the Spring Festival, will there be a big change in the market price?
First, let's look at the wheat market, which we previously judged to be a slight increase in wheat prices for the following reasons:
1. The early wheat corn substitution, the wheat market that is already tightly balanced between supply and demand, the price follows the rise of corn; 2. The precipitation in North China in the third quarter still brings concerns about the future wheat supply; 3. The national reserve wheat is absent from the market in the fourth quarter, making the wheat price increase catch up with the corn, in this context, the feed substitution effect declines, and the wheat rise is weak, but it is also difficult to fall.
In the future, we will no longer look at the substitution between wheat and corn, according to the trend of wheat in previous years, the weather conditions in March will re-stimulate the market trend, and the national reserve inventory of less than 50 million tons at that time should also be smoothly out of storage.
Next, let's look at the corn.
This year, due to the lack of corn in storage, the price of corn in the first half of the year once rushed to a high of 1.5 yuan, and drove the price of new corn all the way up after that, so the gap between supply and demand of corn is still the focus of attention.
Judging from the latest data, China has completed 30 million tons of forward grain procurement, most of which arrive in the first half of next year, which can make up for the lack of corn in storage, but from the absolute quantity point of view, it is still insufficient, and the insufficient part needs to be supplemented from this year's sale.
It is difficult for us to give an authoritative assessment of the sales data now, but from the market trend in the fourth quarter of this year and the market trend in the fourth quarter of last year, it should be judged that at least 10 million tons or so should be sold years ago, but will be sold in February and April next year. In terms of increasing production, we do not make too many assessments, one is the quality of corn, and the other is the rain in North China, which may actually grow less than expected.
On the other hand, corn as a staple grain variety, its price trend will receive attention from many parties, from the position of several shocks of 1.5 yuan this year, it can be seen that the upper pressure is huge, the probability will fluctuate between 1.3-1.5 yuan, and the low will soon come after the Spring Festival.
Of course, the reason why the market is difficult to judge is that there are too many uncertainties, and in the context of the unchanged general trend, it is necessary to adjust the phased purchase and sale strategy at any time.
At present, the biggest uncertainty still comes from the epidemic situation, at present, many provinces need to provide 48-hour nucleic acid testing for personnel from other provinces, which constitutes a big impact on market logistics, and it is expected that the probability of maintaining a small shock before the holiday will be maintained.
In other aspects, the data given by some institutions a few days ago shows that since October 2020, the domestic directional rice turnover is about 22 million tons, assuming that the calculation is based on 80% of the outbound rate, the domestic feed rice in 2020/2021 is about 17.6 million tons. The number of substitutions is expected to remain at this level during the current year.
Finally, it should be noted that the establishment of daily grain and oil was initially only industry information sharing, with the attention of people to food security in the past two years, some people outside the grain circle will use this as a window to understand China's grain market, we are here again to explain - what we do is only the sharing and exchange of industry information, do not make any investment advice, and do not represent any official voice.