Not long ago, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first three quarters of this year. Judging from the situation in all aspects, the current situation is that on the one hand, the factors for the improvement of the economy are increasing, and the signs of stabilization and recovery are more obvious; on the other hand, the new momentum of economic growth is not strong enough, and the foundation for stabilization needs to be further consolidated. What is the next step for China's economy? How to avoid the risks? CCTV financial reporters recently interviewed Li Yining, a well-known economist, on relevant issues.
Li Yining, who just celebrated his 86th birthday the day before yesterday, is a figure that cannot be ignored in the course of China's reform and opening up for more than 30 years, because he proposed in the early days of reform and opening up that China should actively introduce the enterprise shareholding system, and he is called the pioneer of the reform of China's enterprise shareholding system, and people often call him "Li Shares". Until now, his shareholding theory is still an important theoretical support for the construction of China's capital market and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
It doesn't matter if the renminbi is a little depreciated, as long as it is within the range of degrees
According to the data of the foreign exchange bureau of the central bank, today (November 24), the midpoint of the renminbi against the US dollar continued to fall by 181 basis points to 6.9085, falling below the 6.90 mark, which also hit a new low since June 16, 2008. The offshore market's renminbi also fell sharply against the dollar, falling below the 6.96 mark to approach 7.0 in early trading this morning.
Statistics show that from November 4 to November 21, the median exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar suffered 12 consecutive declines, with a cumulative depreciation of 1494 basis points, a depreciation of 2.21%, although there was a brief rebound on November 22, but on November 23 it fell again.
CCTV financial reporter Ji Yu: This period of time we are all concerned because the end of the year is coming, many people pay more attention to some important characteristics of china's economy this year, as well as foreign environmental impact, such as the recent US election issues, the problem of raising interest rates to the US dollar, etc. What we observe is that the foreign exchange market has fluctuated sharply, such as the expectation of the depreciation of the renminbi, how do you look at this problem, the next step is to look at the next period of time, in the process of our entire economic transformation and structural adjustment, Will the fluctuations in the exchange rate market have a relatively large impact on our entire process of reform and change, how do you observe?
Economist Li Yining: There are two opinions on this issue, one is that it is very worthy of attention, because the foreign exchange rate, whether it is up or down, will cause speculation, and foreign speculative capital will also come in and out, so this should be to seek stability.
The second one is not too scary, why? Because China's entire economy is still growing in real terms, China's economic strength is large, and the status of the renminbi in the world is stable, and trading is also a normal phenomenon, these two opinions I think are reasonable, the main problem is in the degree, excessive, then there is the first danger, but it does not matter if it is a little degraded, as long as it is within the scope of the degree, it still does not matter much.
The content of supply-side reform is not only to change enterprises, but also to change the rules of operation
Today, Li Yining is more concerned about the supply-side structural reform that the government is vigorously promoting, on the one hand, he believes that the supply-side structural reform is a gradual process that requires patience; at the same time, he also emphasizes that the reform of state-owned enterprises is the top priority of the supply-side structural reform.
CCTV Financial Reporter Ji Yu: The CPC Central Committee and the State Council are making every effort to promote the structural reform of our country's economy, and supply-side structural reform is the top priority of our economic work this year, and it is also a major highlight in our economic development this year.
Economist Li Yining: The structural reform of the supply side is not only to change the enterprise, but also to change the rules of operation, which is very important. The rules that run are mainly referred to in two aspects:
The first is whether the market plays a decisive role, and if the market remains as it has been in the past, subject to the local administration of the government, this task will not be completed.
The second is whether the operation of the entire economy, including the operation of the enterprise, is placed at a height of efficiency first, which includes reducing the cost and removing some unreasonable expenses, so that the enterprise can really have vitality, which is very important.
So, it is not something that can be done in the short term, in the management of the national economy, structural adjustment, structural reform, is usually considered a medium-term task, it takes a long time, so I do not agree with some people now, The economic stability at 6.7 means that the inflection point has arrived, which may be underestimating the difficulty of the entire reform, because one of the most important problems in the reform is not only the vitality of the enterprise, but also the pressure on the enterprise, the enterprise has no pressure or under the original system, it does not feel the need to carry out such a large-scale adjustment.
And in terms of adjustment, it also involves some pain in enterprises, such as more layoffs, products can not be sold for a while, reduce bank loans, etc., it feels very difficult, so this is a problem that needs attention, but we can be sure that the medium-term reform will probably take several years to turn the whole road to the new normal. The job is arduous, don't take it lightly.
In the future, the ranks of entrepreneurs will change
CCTV financial reporter Ji Yu: You just mentioned that this point is of great interest to us, although we are all talking about supply-side structural reform, but supply-side structural reform is a very macro concept, usually now people think, or equate it with what we call "three to one reduction and one supplement", this specific work content, from your analysis, in fact, this macro concept, is not just "three to one down and one to make up" is not it?
Economist Li Yining: In fact, there are many aspects of supply-side reform, manufacturing industry has manufacturing supply-side reform, agriculture has agricultural reform, government management has government management reform, and so on. So, there are many roads but many are connected, and the victory of this reform can promote the progress of that reform, so in the end it is still a game of chess in the whole country, and in this process, there is a new situation that we should pay attention to the transformation of the quality of human capital.
Migrant workers start a business This is a very remarkable thing, the countryside still has some labor force, but today's labor force is different from 20 years ago, 20 years ago, as long as there was work, manual labor on the line, but today he will pick. He is willing to start a business, and he is not afraid to start a business, especially the migrant workers who return to their hometowns, they feel that they also have a place in the countryside. Family farms have been set up, family farms have been set up, and there are those who are willing to engage in handicrafts in the vicinity, and those who are willing to engage in commerce, which is the improvement of the basic quality of human beings, if the structural reform is not combined with the improvement of the quality of human resources, the effect is not good.
You still use the migrant workers from the countryside in the past, but in recent years, people have not used it, why not use it? The use of robots, can be the use of robots, all use robots, these people he must improve its quality to keep up with the current situation, so, in this sense, this is a big change, our manufacturing industry will have an impact, our agriculture for the construction of a well-off society, have an impact.
There are also some young people, because I am working, with college graduates, graduate graduates, contact are more, their favorite job is to start a business, the most want to start their own business, so to find a way to participate in some practical activities in college, this is a gratifying phenomenon, because this means that our entire business structure changes, the entrepreneur team will change, why the entrepreneur team will change? Because the entrepreneurs we are talking about now are entrepreneurs who have been handed down from history, they have worked in the enterprise for so many years, they are called entrepreneurs, but they have little knowledge of innovation and lack of experience. In the new period, they do not take the old road, focus on creativity, after having creativity, they will innovate, after innovation, the final completion is entrepreneurship. New enterprises have risen, and these people cannot be called entrepreneurs now, they can only be called innovators, so entrepreneurs are equal to innovators, which is the view of Western economics, and it seems that it is not possible. Entrepreneurs are entrepreneurs, and innovators may become entrepreneurs, but they are more likely to become leaders and leaders in a field.
The government has done three things to support entrepreneurship and innovation
CCTV financial reporter Ji Yu: Not long ago, the National Mass Innovation and Entrepreneurship Theme Activity Week was launched in Shenzhen, and the Premier also personally attended the activities related to the Double Innovation Week.
From another point of view, China's economy is in a critical moment of structural upgrading and transformation, entrepreneurship and innovation have become a focus of social concern, we are now thinking, as you just said, you have brought a lot of students in the university, but also pay attention to their needs and desires for innovation and entrepreneurship.
From the perspective of society as a whole, how can we provide a good soil and a good environment for these seeds of innovation? What exactly do our governments and our societies have to do?
Economist Li Yining: The government mainly has three aspects:
The first is to help build a platform, no platform is not enough, the platform to the government to help establish, so that entrepreneurs, these young entrepreneurs and some experienced scientific and technological inventors can have a platform to know each other, exchange ideas with each other.
Second, taxes should be reduced, because when they need money the most, they have a hard time making some money, and the tax is too heavy. In fact, if the enterprise is enlarged, the government can receive more taxes in the future, and it may be better to actually let the tax be paid for a while.
Third, the flow of talents should be a little wider and more open, because they are people with knowledge, and the current flow is at the postdoctoral stage, there is a relatively large room for mobility, but shouldn't there be a doctoral student graduation? Therefore, the social mobility path for talents should be wider, so that more talents can emerge.
The next step of China's economic and social development and transformation
CCTV financial reporter Ji Yu: The government should do these three very important things, I remember a few years ago you wrote a book called "The Double Transformation Road of China's Economy" In the case of property rights change and clarity, China's economy is facing the transformation from a planned economy to a market economy, from an agricultural society to an industrial society, from this time, if we study China's development, many of the elements of our economic development have undergone drastic changes. As you just analyzed and said that human resources is a very important change, at this point in time, let's observe, how to take the next step of China's economic and social development and transformation? What to watch out for?
Economist Li Yining: The existing policies should further expand their influence, and the confirmation of peasants' rights is a big thing, and the peasants have property income and property rights, which is of great benefit to the modernization of agriculture, the industrialization of agriculture, and the formation of family farms. This needs to be done in time.
Promotion of vocational education. The reason why those young people today are willing to go to technical schools and technical colleges is mainly because they can make their expertise available through this way, China is in need of craftsmen, how to cultivate craftsmen in big countries? To be young people, it is different from the past training path, there are teachers to teach by hand, there is also a position of their own to continue to explore and study, but also have the encouragement and help of leaders. The migrant worker has no chance to learn anymore, because he engages in simple labor, manual labor. How to learn by picking bricks? But the technicians are different, and the technicians have the opportunity to constantly train and update their knowledge. And such a good environment, so the big country craftsmen this point is also put forward in the modern situation after the reform and opening up, is the best, although there were in the past, but the big country craftsmen are too few after all, and many squares are taught by the teacher.
The development and integration of state-owned capital and private capital
CCTV financial reporter Ji Yu: The way the master takes the apprentice, so the efficiency is relatively low.
On the other hand, we have noticed that in your monograph "The Road to The Double Transformation of China's Economy", you specifically mentioned that property rights must be clear, and only after the confirmation of rights can we work hard for our own assets.
From the current point of view, after more than ten years of the overall development of China's economy, in the middle of the main elements of the economy we see, such as state-owned capital, such as private capital property rights have basically begun to be clear, and gradually will mature, now when China's economic transformation in the case of clear property rights, we see that state-owned capital and private capital seem to be moving towards a kind of integration, this road of development how do we do, how do we pay attention to the opportunities in the middle, seize the opportunities, and control the risks?
Economist Li Yining: First, the traditional concept is bound, private enterprises, you let me invest in state-owned enterprises, he lost me what to do, I can't be the master, my money will be wasted, we will do it, in case the situation changes in the next two years, I will spread all kinds of crimes on us, do not do it. This he does not understand since the Eighteenth National Congress, the whole situation is changing, according to the law to run enterprises, so this article to change, but not a process, they are more willing to take us as the mainstay, you to invest in this can, to you as the main I to invest, he is not at ease, afraid of problems. This is a universal sentiment.
Therefore, in this case, the industry is to do, the special industry country has a special policy, the general industry, the commercial industry can adopt a mixed ownership system to complete the corporate governance structure, the board of directors is the real board of directors, regular meetings, exact responsibility, so to do, otherwise, this is still very difficult.
Second, we must encourage young people, including university graduates, including technicians, to start businesses, start small businesses, and start within their capabilities.
Third, we must face up to the opportunities for employment in the economy is many, to take advantage of the opportunity of employment, for example, when the online shopping began, who can expect the express delivery industry to develop so much, can absorb such people employment, someone told me tens of millions, and these people are self-equipped tools, but also to develop. The public service industry is doing now, and the employment rate will increase after the public service industry rises, so our employment problem can only be solved in the course of development, the economy does not develop, it does not take a new road, and if you do not reform the system, there will not be so many jobs.
The PPP model has three problems to solve in China
CCTV financial reporter Ji Yu: Regarding the introduction of private capital to open up more markets to private capital to promote the better development of private capital, recently I have seen more ways to promote the PPP development model promoted by the Ministry of Finance of the National Development and Reform Commission, we are all very concerned about a little, as you just analyzed, private capital is a very key point, if I want to do this thing, because the cycle is relatively long, the investment is relatively large, how do I ensure returns, How can we ensure that my PPP model can be managed continuously and stably in the middle of a long ten-year, twenty-year or even thirty-year development cycle?
Economist Li Yining: The PPP model is common in the world, but it is possible to use it for China now, but there are three problems that need to be solved.
First, the law, if there is no law to guide the guarantee, there may be some people who blame in the future, so it must be under the conditions of the legal system.
Second, after the construction of the public sector, it must take the road of joint-stock system, PPP mode it is not equal to the joint-stock system, to take the road of joint-stock system to hold its organization hostage and fix it, property rights are protected.
Third, these units engaged in the PPP model must pay attention to integrity, can not be halfway back, and changed, so that you can rest assured, PPP model is a very good model, the private capital can be mobilized.