Even people who have never sat on a large passenger plane have heard the big name of the Airbus A380 "Big Mac in the Air". The world's largest passenger aircraft shook the world on its first commercial flight 14 years ago, ending more than 30 years of monopoly on the Market for the Boeing 747. Its birth can be described as a major milestone in the history of human aviation, not only excellent flight experience, but also a monument in technology.
However, due to insufficient reserve orders, Airbus announced in 2019 that it would discontinue the Airbus A380 in 2021. This news is deplorable. Subsequently, the sudden epidemic accelerated the decline of the "giant", and operators have grounded and even announced the early retirement of the Airbus A380 passenger aircraft.
In March, the last Airbus A380 aircraft produced by Airbus flew from Toulouse, France, to Hamburg, Germany, and will be delivered to Emirates after completion. At the same time, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, some operators have successively announced the restart of Airbus A380 passenger aircraft services. In the face of the return of the "giant", people still have to ask: How long can the Airbus A380 airliner fly in the sky?
It is rarely decided to retire in their entirety
In restarting the aviation industry in the post-pandemic era, the reduced demand for air travel means that airlines will need fewer large passenger aircraft over a period of time. When hundreds of seats are hard to fill, the Burden on airline balance sheets is particularly heavy on the Airbus A380.
Cirium's data shows that by the end of March 2021, 61% of wide-body airliners have resumed operations, but the vast majority of Airbus A380 airliners remain grounded. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there were 233 Airbus A380 aircraft in service worldwide, compared to 23 on March 31 this year.
Independent aviation analyst Brendan Sobi said: "If all Airbus A380 operators can start with a blank slate, they will not include airbus A380s in their fleets in the post-pandemic era. "Nevertheless, not many airlines have officially decided to retire all Airbus A380 aircraft from their existing fleets since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The consensus among analysts is that while the Airbus A380 will appear in some markets in the coming years, the focus of operators will be on shrinking their fleets. "A handful of Airbus A380 opportunities continue to operate for a few years and I think some passengers will continue to favor these aircraft, especially considering that the remaining aircraft will have the latest in-flight products," Sobi said. The aircraft will be deployed on "high-density, time-constrained, fast-recovery or high-traffic routes."
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, Air France is the only airline to explicitly retire the Airbus A380. Although Lufthansa almost announced that its 14 Airbus A380 aircraft would never fly again, it did not remove them from its future fleet. Meanwhile, Thai Airways International said on March 12 that it was assessing market interest in 2 of its 6 Airbus A380 aircraft.
Operators that have only a few Airbus A380s and are older may "not reactivate Airbus A380s at all, or will only operate Airbus A380s for a very short period of time," Sobi said. In the current situation, phasing out these long-lived Airbus A380 aircraft is feasible and even reasonable, despite the high cost of doing so. Some airlines continue to retain the Airbus A380, in part because the cost of eliminating this "young" aircraft is astronomical, so they want to use it for a few more years.
Expectations of the largest operator
It is foreseeable that in the coming years, Emirates will continue to be the largest operator of the Airbus A380 aircraft. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Middle Eastern airline had 115 Airbus A380 aircraft, about half of the global total. Emirates President Tim Clarke made it clear that Emirates' pre-pandemic business model remained valid. In a speech in February, he predicted that Emirates would "use Airbus A380 aircraft on its main routes, but the Boeing 777X will gradually take its place". This means that the Airbus A380 will remain a feature of Emirates in the 2030s.
Alvind Chandrasekhar, Associate Partner at Lufthansa Consulting, said: "The Airbus A380 is unique in that it connects large global hubs with high passenger traffic, thereby reducing the cost per seat, especially at airports where flight schedules are limited. Middle Eastern airlines rely more on this business model than airlines with large home markets and peer-to-peer markets. ”
Still, it's unclear how many Airbus A380 aircraft Emirates will restart, and how quickly.
Clark believes that in the next few years, as the recovery of the demand side is stronger than the industry expects, there may be a shortage of "supply side" in the medium and long-range aviation business, which provides an opportunity for Emirates to increase capacity.
John Strickland, head of JLS Consultancy, said Emirates' presence at the Dubai hub maximises the volume and passenger traffic it can offer. In Strickland's view, growth markets – particularly in Asia – and their peer-to-peer market with Dubai are very important, meaning that "Emirates has a better chance than other airlines to maintain the capacity of the Airbus A380 fleet". He also said Emirates would use the current grounding opportunity to refurbish the Airbus A380 and install new high-end economy class seats, which will be an important source of revenue in the post-PANDEMIC era.
Still, Strickland and other analysts believe it's too early to say whether Emirates will resume operations on all Airbus A380 aircraft.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Ascend Consultancy, said: "It is too early to tell if Emirates can rebuild its network during the recovery phase of the industry. But it's clear that even if they have the ability to do so, the number of Airbus A380 aircraft required by their route network will be reduced, as there may be some permanent reduction in demand. ”
Bigger market
Despite these challenges, it's not just Emirates that is taking a positive view of the role that Airbus A380 will play in the fleet in the coming years.
British Airways chief executive Sean Doyle said in March that the Airbus A380 "works well in some larger markets". As a result, the airliner is "an important part of our fleet and at the moment our plans are clearly to be reactivated", just without a specific timeline.
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, 12 British Airways Airbus A380s flew from London to Johannesburg in South Africa, Los Angeles in the United States, Hong Kong and Singapore.
In Strickland's view, British Airways' relatively young Airbus A380 fleet and its network dynamics mean that the model could still be useful to it. "Considering that there are many high-traffic routes departing from London and that there may be aviation products that may require more attention to the leisure market in the coming years, the Airbus A380 aircraft have a useful place in these market segments, especially since Bahang has only 12 Airbus A380 aircraft and the Boeing 747 fleet has been retired."
Qantas said it could re-launch the Airbus A380 in the future, but not in the short term. The company's chief executive, Alan Joyce, said in early February that while all 12 of Qantas's Big Macs were parked in the Mojave Desert, "we do think that if you look at Qantas' network, you'll see opportunities to deploy these aircraft". "If you've ever been to Los Angeles between 22:00 and midnight, you've seen 6 to 7 Qantas planes take off from here to Australia," he said. If cash flow can be generated, an Airbus A380 that reduces its book value is entirely useful, rather than using other types of aircraft to fly from flight to flight. ”
In addition, he also mentioned the possibility of the Return of the Airbus A380 to saturated airports at take-off and landing times such as London Heathrow Airport in the United Kingdom. After several write-downs, the Airbus A380 has also eased its burden on Qantas' balance sheet. Joyce added: "So we're sure we need the Airbus A380 fleet and it generates cash flow. Cash flow is important when we restart our international business. ”
Attractive alternatives
However, for Qatar Airways, the economics of the Airbus A380 are a limiting factor in any case. Akbar Al Baker, the Middle Eastern airline's chief executive, said in January that Qatar Airways plans to keep only five of the 10 Airbus A380 aircraft while recovering from the COVID-19 crisis. Compared to the Airbus A380, the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 are more economical and have less environmental impact.
For wide-body operators, there are other attractive options besides the Airbus A380. With the recovery of the long-haul international market expected to take several years, multiple airlines will try to wait for some or all of the market to recover without an Airbus A380 and let new, smaller twin-engine aircraft fill the void.
Chandrasekhar said: "A look at the past order records of Airbus A380 operators shows the future trend – most operators believe that the Boeing 777, Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 will help their future remote networks." Many airlines have introduced Boeing 777-300ER, which can operate long-distance flights. ”
Malaysia Airlines has been operating its 6 Airbus A380 aircraft for many years. At the start of the outbreak, the company operated a number of Airbus A380 cargo flights. In contrast, most airlines operate such flights with twin-engine wide-body aircraft.
Compared to other wide-body aircraft, the oversized cabin of the Airbus A380 does not match the same excellent belly capacity. Increasing the cargo capacity of the Airbus A380 through cabin loading has strict restrictions on the cargo and weight that can be carried. In addition, cargo-based airports are unlikely to invest in infrastructure to secure Airbus A380 flights.
Richard Evans, senior adviser at Ascend, said that new twin-engine aircraft like the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 not only earn 15 to 25 percent less emissions per passenger kilometer than the Airbus A380, they can also carry more cargo. (Compiled by You Xi)
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The Airbus A380 aircraft on the used market
For the circulation of the Airbus A380 airliner in the second-hand market, most industry analysts believe that such opportunities are very few.
It is commercially feasible for long-range airliners to carry cargo due to rising freight rates, but the Airbus A380 has limited use as a cargo aircraft. In addition, amid a growing broader review of sustainability efforts in the aviation industry, airlines take their environmental impacts very seriously and are unlikely to see the four-engine oversized aircraft as a solution to environmental challenges. Coupled with the recovery of the business market and the long-range market in the post-epidemic era, the recovery of the short-haul leisure market has lagged significantly behind the recovery of the short-haul leisure market, and the high cost of refurbishing or modifying super-large passenger aircraft has deterred many airlines. All of these factors add up to further reduce the likelihood that the Airbus A380 will circulate in the second-hand market.
In 2020, Hi Fly decided to convert one of Singapore Airlines' used Airbus A380s into cargo aircraft. Just a few months later, the Portuguese wet-lease operator announced it would ground the plane altogether.
Alvind Chandrasekhar, deputy partner at Lufthansa Consulting, commented: "So far, only one used Airbus A380 aircraft has found a new owner, but even it has not survived the impact of the epidemic crisis, which is not a good sign. The attempt to convert an Airbus A380 airliner into a freighter proved very challenging. ”
Independent aviation analyst Brendan Soby believes that most retired Airbus A380 aircraft may eventually be dismantled into parts rather than returning to service with other airlines. "There are a number of Airbus A380 opportunities that have been dismantled, which will help support the operation of the remaining fleet and perhaps make it cheaper for airlines such as Emirates, Singapore Airlines and Qantas to operate the Airbus A380. I think what you're going to see is that some airlines like Singapore Airlines choose to seek out parts solutions on their own, rather than selling the aircraft at very low prices and then having to buy those parts back at a premium."
Rob Morris, global head of Ascend Consulting, said that "the secondary market is always extremely challenging for a large aircraft like the Airbus A380", and few airlines will operate this type of aircraft except the initial operator. Unexpectedly, however, the pandemic led to a sharp drop in demand, and operators retired Airbus A380 aircraft ahead of schedule. That could mean that a small number of operators whose route network can support such large aircraft after the pandemic ends could buy Airbus A380 aircraft at very low prices and then carry out repairs and refurbishments, he said. He suggested that BA could "pick one or two" on the second-hand market at some point. (Compiled by You Xi)