How many three-pointers will Curry end up shooting in his career? 5000 balls is realistic

The Warriors won 105-96 on the road to the Knicks. In this game, Warriors guard Stephen Curry played 35 minutes, shooting 8-of-19 from the field, including 5-of-14 from three-point range, and had 22 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists.

As a result, Curry's career three-point shooting (2977) surpassed Ray Allen's 2973, ranking first in history.

ESPN data expert Kevin Pelton wrote an analysis of how many three-pointers Curry will eventually shoot in his career?

Curry, 33, is averaging a career-high 5.4 three-pointers per game. The biggest variable predicting Curry's career total three-points is health. If it weren't for the fact that he only played five games in the 2019-20 season, he would have been at number one on the all-time three-point chart a year earlier.

Another factor is how long Curry himself wants to play? His technical characteristics guarantee him the seniority of role players late in his career. If his health allows, Curry can easily stay in the NBA in his 40s. The question is how long does Curry want to stay in the NBA when he can't stay at MVP level?

Pelton conservatively estimates that Curry will play another 5 seasons before retiring at 39 in 2027 and playing in 80 percent of the Warriors' games before, so with his SCHOENE prediction system, Curry will shoot at least 1,450 more goals, including the remaining 201 goals of the season. That's equivalent to 50 percent of Ray Allen's career hits. Of course, when Curry retired, Ray Allen's second place in history could not be saved.

The challenger behind Curry is James Harden, who entered the NBA younger than Curry, and the two were selected in the same term, but Harden is 17 months younger. Harden's second advantage is that career attendance is better.

Harden's current 2509 three-point shooting percentage is more than Curry's (2495) in the same age group. He's likely to overtake Reggie Miller during the All-Star period, and it's also a matter of time before he overtakes Allen.

But harden has a hard time surpassing Curry: The frequency of his three-point shots plummeting after joining the Nets, averaging "only" 2.6 three-pointers per game, less than half of Curry's season. And after Harden joined the Nets, the attendance rate is also worrying.

If harden is also predicted to play at the age of 39 and play 85% of the game, his career three-point shooting will still be 800 fewer than Curry.com.