The Qing Dynasty declined rapidly from the "Qianlong Dynasty" to the "Opium War" (1840-1842), a period of less than half a century. Therefore, many people see the "Opium War" as a turning point in the rise and fall of the Qing Dynasty, but this is not the case. Long before the Opium War, the Qing Dynasty was inevitably in decline, and what really crushed the Qing Dynasty was not the invasion of western powers, but the serious problems within the Qing Dynasty.
In the mid-sixteenth century, sweet potatoes, corn, and peanuts transplanted from the Americas began to be planted in Large Areas in China, and the yield of chinese grain crops increased significantly. This provided the material basis for subsequent population growth, which in turn allowed more land to be reclaimed and more food to be produced. Under this two-wheel drive effect, the population of the Qing Dynasty increased explosively in the nearly two hundred years from the end of the Ming Dynasty to the middle and late Qing Dynasty, until the eve of the outbreak of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Movement in 1850, the population of the Qing Dynasty reached 436 million.
In an agrarian society, population is a country's most important resource. Whether it is agricultural production or marching to fight, the large number of people often has an advantage. Moreover, population growth can also bring huge consumption power to the whole society, thus promoting the development of the domestic economy. However, the benefit of having a large number of people has a big premise, that is, society must have enough productive forces to supply a growing population, and once the social productive forces cannot keep up with the population growth rate, especially the shortage of food production, then the large number of people is no longer an advantage, but will become a burden and a serious social hidden danger.
The population of the Qing Dynasty reached 436 million, equivalent to one-third of our population today. However, the social production capacity at that time was a thousand times behind today, and from this alone, we can see how serious the problems faced by the Qing Dynasty at that time were.
Many people have heard of the Qianlong Emperor of the Qing Dynasty who refused the request of the British Magorny Mission to carry out trade, and thus concluded that the Qianlong Emperor was a stubborn fool who would deprive China of an opportunity to develop in tandem with the world's most advanced countries. So was it true that the Qianlong Emperor was too ignorant in his later years? Not really. At that time, the biggest advantage of British industrialized products was that a small number of people could be used to produce a large number of materials, which greatly liberated the labor force. But the problem is that there are fewer British and more Chinese. If industrialization is rushed, it is bound to cause a large number of people to lose their jobs, which will cause serious social problems and endanger the rule of the Qing Empire. If you were an emperor, would you be willing to take the risks that come with this industrialization? The answer is presumably no.
The fear of a labor surplus and the refusal to change was also one of the negative effects of the population at that time. If the problem facing the Qing Dynasty at that time was a shortage of labor, then even a fool would not reject the benefits of industrialization to increase productivity.
The rapid population has led to an increasing number of poor people without land, a large number of landless peasants have left their homes to earn a living as displaced people, and the spread of displaced people has had a serious impact on public order in other places, which has further aggravated the situation.
In the rich Jiangnan region, the situation is relatively stable due to the abundance of products. However, in Sichuan, Chuzhou, Guangxi and other places where there are many people and few places and transportation is inconvenient, how to solve the problem of eating has become a top priority. Many people struggled on the subsistence line, and the Rulers of the Qing Dynasty saw the crux of the problem, but could not find the answer to solve the problem. Therefore, with the continuous accumulation of social contradictions, some people who were dissatisfied with the imperial court began to incite the mood of the masses, so that peasant uprisings frequently broke out in the middle and late Qing Dynasty.
Therefore, the fundamental cause of the decline of the Qing Dynasty was not the "Opium War", but the inability of the Qing rulers to solve the contradiction that the social productive forces could not keep up with the rate of population growth, resulting in the exponential growth of the poor population, and the Qing Dynasty, which had always been proud of being "rich in products and omnipotent in the Heavenly Dynasty", was finally crushed by the "straw" of insufficient property.
Reference: 1368-1953 Chinese Oral Studies, He Bingdi