Li Bei, the "private equity witch", often goes out of the circle with a rather personal point of view and personal gossip. Last weekend, her article "Never Go Back to the Past" published on the public account of Banxia Investment once again aroused heated discussion, and netizens called her "the first fund manager of the year to actively disclose her emotional life".
In the article, she combines her own emotional experience to analyze the current real estate market, believing that the current market expectations for real estate have changed, and it is difficult for real estate to reproduce the previous prosperity.
According to public information, Banxia Investment was established in August 2015, the founder Li Bei, who served as a special account investment manager in the Bank of Communications Schroder Fund, Shanghai Honghu Investment as an investment director and fund manager, and established Banxia Investment in 2015.
A real estate analysis article that comes out on its own
The article that caused heated discussion was published on the public account of Half Summer Investment on December 12, and the number of readers was already 10+ shortly after its release.
In the article, Li Bei combed the development history of real estate for more than 20 years, from the sweet period of harmony and quiet to the introduction of strict regulation and control policies, she believes that the current market expectations for real estate have changed.
"In the eyes of the bank, the vast majority of private real estate developers are no longer safe, and lending money to them is tantamount to a moth to a fire; in the eyes of the people, buying a house is a risk of bad tails; the rise in house prices is no longer inevitable; real estate taxes are the costs that are likely to be borne in the future."
Li Bei believes that when expectations change, the contradiction of insufficient credit lines for development loans will give way to the contradiction of insufficient willingness of financial institutions to lend; the contradiction of insufficient mortgage loan amounts will give way to the contradiction of insufficient demand for mortgage loans. Then returning to equilibrium is also the proper meaning of the medium term, which is nothing more than a matter of time. Even if the regulatory pressure has receded, everything will never return to the past.
In January this year, Li Bei said in an interview that this year, the trend of deleveraging domestic residents has strengthened, and real estate and financial companies may be suppressed. There are certain problems with the safety of companies in the real estate sector, especially private enterprises.
At the beginning of the year, I sang more Hong Kong stocks and misread real estate
According to the information of the private placement network, Li Bei currently manages a total of 9 funds, and the volume of investment management in the middle of the summer is 2-5 billion yuan. At the same time, the performance of Banxia Investment this year is relatively prominent, and among the private equity funds that use macro strategies, the Banxia steady hybrid macro hedging managed by Li Bei ranks fifth among 291 products.
As a macro hedge fund manager, the grasp of cyclical fluctuations has become an important factor affecting the performance of the fund. After the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China at the end of 2019, she allocated more stock index put options, which played a hedging protection effect after the outbreak of the epidemic. In April 2020, the economy recovered faster than expected, and she turned to equities.
At the end of 2018, Li Bei predicted that A shares would come out of the W shape in 2019. At the macro level, there was first a resonance of the decline in real estate, the destocking of the manufacturing industry and the decline in exports, and then there was a scene of major funds cutting heavy stocks against each other.
However, in 2019, real estate continued to exceed expectations. In that year, both the amount of real estate sales and real estate investment were on the rise.
Then, in her speech, she reflected, "Maybe in the next six months, real estate will remain high, but it is dangerous after the second quarter of next year (2020)." "Specifically, because credit support is still maintained, house prices have not been significantly loosened, and house prices will not significantly inhibit the impulse to buy before they are significantly loosened, so from a national perspective, relatively high sales and relatively stable house prices should still be maintained in the coming months."
"If three months ago, about two-thirds of the cities were raising prices and one-third were falling prices, now it is basically in half. In another three to six months it is possible to become two-thirds of the price decline, the cycle inflection point comes more slowly, it is a very flat flat top. Maybe after half a year, you can see that the house price is significantly loose, such as two-thirds of the city house prices fall again, the impulse to buy a house is to increase the willingness to leverage will definitely decline, at that time will enter a negative cycle, the more it falls, the more it does not buy. ”
At the beginning of this year, Li Bei also firmly sang about the multi-Hong Kong stock market. Li Bei believes that from the data point of view, whether it is the trend of industrial capital or the change of the trend of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, it is based on the medium-term capital environment and valuation level, which is a rational choice made by professional investors and has a certain degree of sustainability. These two forces no longer support the strengthening of A shares. She called on investors to sell A shares and buy H shares.
Fund managers have mixed views on real estate
Combing the positions of public funds, it was found that there were not a few fund managers who over-matched real estate, including Zou Xi, Wang Junzheng, Zhang Yanmin, Qiu Jie, Han Wenqiang, Dong Li, Wang Dongjie, Mo Haibo and others, including many investment veterans.
Lu Feng Jinxin fund manager Lu Bin is optimistic about real estate and its industrial chain, and is in charge of fund re-allocation to Vanke A, he believes that the pattern of the real estate industry and profitability and valuation should be reconstructed. This year's changes in the real estate industry have brought about an accelerated liquidation of the industry.
"It looks like these are risk events, but they're good for the real estate industry as a whole in the long run." In the next five years or more, the output value of this industry may decline significantly, but the number of players in the industry will be greater. In the past, there were more than a thousand players, and then there were dozens of them, most of which were large central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and high-quality private enterprises. ”
He believes that this industry may become a leading concentrated industry like utilities in the future, "I don't know when the opportunity for such investments will be grand narrative, but in the next 2 to 3 years, the implied rate of return of this industry is very high." 」 We may see a company in this industry with a market capitalization approaching trillions in the future. ”
According to the latest disclosed three quarterly reports, poly development, gemdale group, Vanke A, Jinke shares, and New Town Holdings are the top five heavy stocks of the fund, and among the top ten heavy stocks, there are octos, two bank stocks and two consumer stocks.
In early November, he said that real estate is emerging as the main catalyst for counter-cyclicality, "the first three quarters of the market growth of steel, mining, utilities, etc., are low valuations and the worst performers in the past two years (2019, 2020)." Under the action of various catalysts in the industry, valuation repair. Entering the fourth quarter, the only remaining undervalued sector is bank real estate, and real estate, as the main gripper of the counter-cycle, is emerging in the case of accelerating economic downturn and accelerating the collapse of the industry. ”
This article originated from Blue Whale Finance
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