After the intense final round of Huang Qian's 3-2 victory over real blue and black Atalanta, this season's Champions League group stage was all cancelled, and the promotion to the next round of places was also generated. Although the traditional top giants such as Milan and Barca have been eliminated, the overall strength of the winning team is still very strong, and the next draw ceremony will definitely touch people's hearts. This season's Champions League restructuring, the abolition of the rules for away goals will inevitably bring fluctuations; the "potential meeting" between C Ronaldo and Messi is also quite attractive; what are the other points worth paying attention to? And what potential "grudge duels" are worth looking forward to?
Promotion review: All the giants have advanced, and Barca Milan are out
After the first round of the Champions League this season's group stage, the 16 teams from the top five leagues (12) and the other major leagues (4) were selected. Among them, the Premier League has become a big winner, all 4 participating teams have passed (Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City), La Liga except Barca (Real Madrid, Atletico, Villarreal), Serie A is Inter and Juve, and bayern Paris, the hegemon of the Bundesliga and Ligue 1, has also entered the next round without suspense.
In addition to the aforementioned giants, the successful promotion of Lille, Ajax, Benfica, Portugal Sport and Red Bull Salzburg is worth recalling. The surge in the number of non-giant promotions has also adapted to the "football fairness" cause promoted by the national football federations in recent years. Unfortunately, Barca, Milan, Dortmund and Leipzig were unexpectedly out of the game and could not continue to cut through the thorns in the Champions League. Atlanta and Porto were also "killed before the final" and fell on the eve of qualifying.
Liverpool and Ajax are the best teams to play in the first round, they have achieved a full victory and promotion result, and the "big brother of the list" is really deserved. Ajax is even better in terms of loss ratio, scoring 20 goals and conceding only 5 goals is very good, and they have also developed the first scorer Alai (10 goals), which overwhelms Lewandowski. Inter's promotion has also made their fans very happy, which is the first breakthrough of the team in many years, which is of great significance. The Blues Chelsea turned over in the last round, giving up the top spot to Juventus to displeasure the fans. The addition of Cristiano Ronaldo gives United the opportunity to enter the next leg, although the process is thrilling.
Brief description of the rules of the draw: the principle of avoidance remains the same, but the rules of winning and losing have changed
Like the 32-in-16 rule model, the first round of the 16-8 knockout round will also use the lottery to determine fate. The first place in the A-H group will be the seeded team, and the second place in the group against the A-H group. Among them, there will be avoidance principles in the same national league, such as manchester city two males can not meet Chelsea (Premier League), Juve can not touch Inter (Serie A); the same group will also have avoidance restrictions, such as Lille and Salzburg (G group first, second), will not meet again. This rule will be cancelled in the next round.
As for the timing of the match, which will be held in late February and early March next year, it is still a very familiar home and away game system. However, the "away goal" rule will be abolished, and if the two sides are tied in the aggregate score between home and away, then the first and second half will be directly played for a total of 30 minutes of overtime; if the extra time is still difficult to win or lose, it will be directly kicked to decide. This rule change will bring about a lot of fluctuations, and in the past, crazy away goals and home defense were the strategies of many teams; obviously, this will no longer work. In theory, it is more advantageous for teams that advocate offense.
Summary of drawing points:
Highlight 1: The Premier League has once again collectively broken through, what is the fate of the final four
Needless to say, the Premier League's strong performance in recent years is needless to say, after Liverpool won the Champions League, the Blues Chelsea defended the glory of British football last season, they are a force to be reckoned with in this competition. The group battle ended with all 4 participating teams advancing, once again writing a beautiful chapter of collective breakthrough. Among them, Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United are the first in the group, and if Chelsea does not have a "light opponent" in the last round (3-3 by Zenit and relegated to the second place), the Premier League will even occupy the top four groups.
Manchester City has a high probability of drawing a good draw
In the order of the results of the previous stage, they will encounter different fates. According to the big data enumeration calculation, the potential opponents of Manchester City, which ranks first in Group A, include Atletico Madrid, Villarreal, Red Bull Salzburg, Benfica, Inter and Portugal Sports, with the highest probability (19%) of the six opponents drawing Atletico, Villarreal and Inter, the probability of drawing Salzburg is about 15%, and the probability of drawing the rest of the team is about 14%. In terms of probability alone, the difference is not significant. In terms of the current state and overall squad, it is Inter Milan that can create difficulties for Manchester City, and Dzeko is also quite interesting to the old club.
Suffering a bitter defeat to Chelsea last season, Guardiola has kept a lot of tone this season. For the Blue Moon, their goal will never change, that is, to win the Champions League trophy. The first round of the knockout round will be a touchstone for Pep Guardiola to lead the team, and hopefully they can go further.
Manchester United and Cristiano Ronaldo's "Journey to the Past"
Manchester United, which ranks first in Group B, are likely to meet atletico, Paris, Salzburg, Benfica, Inter and Portugal Sport. In terms of probabilities, the biggest are probably Atletico and Inter, with the data reaching 19%, followed by Paris at 18%, and the probability of drawing salzburg, Benfica and Portuguese sports is relatively small.
This group of draws can be described as full of highlights, including a number of "deceased people" in C Ronaldo's career. If he draws on Portuguese sports, C Luo will meet his old club, and what kind of complicated feelings will it be to return to the "place where the dream began"? Especially in the twilight years of his career; if he draws Atletico Madrid, C Ronaldo will meet his old opponent and relive the feeling of "Atletico Madrid killer", Simeone is of course very reluctant; if he draws to Paris, C Ronaldo will meet the eternal enemy Messi, reenacting the story of the "double pride era", which will inevitably make the world focus on this; if inter is drawn, C Ronaldo will not be unfamiliar, in the time of Juve, the Nerazzurri is the biggest opponent.
Liverpool's steady play
Compared with the Manchester City twins, Liverpool are more "stable", they gave the proud record of winning the group stage, and gradually found the feeling of dominance of the year. In the 16-8 draw, their potential opponents are Paris, Villarreal, Red Bull Salzburg, Benfica, Inter and Portugal Sport, and the probability is relatively average overall, and the probability is very high. For Reds fans, avoiding Paris should be something to look forward to, after all, Messi, Neymar, Mbappe are there, and the French hegemon is still very powerful.
Chelsea's 'fall'
The Blues Chelsea have suffered a lot of losses after being forced to draw by Zenit in the final round. Although it was only a very ordinary group stage, it made them lose the top position, and it also made the next draw more dangerous, and the probability of encountering a difficult opponent exceeded "50%." Maybe that's where boss Abramovich is less than happy. After all, the overall performance of the team recently is not good, and the investment in the transfer window does not seem to have much effect.
After the Blues finished second, the potential opponents became four, namely Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Ajax, and Lille. Compared to the possibility of ranking first, this set of hypothetical enemies is indeed a bit "strong". Among them, the probability of drawing Real Madrid is the largest, reaching 33%, the probability of drawing Lille is 25%, and the probability of Winning Bayern and Ajax is 21%.
Real Madrid, the Champions League hegemon needless to say, their heritage is there; Bayern has Levan in it can not be underestimated, the fatal thing is that from another point of view, the Blues or Bayern opponents have the highest probability of being drawn (Bayern draw probability: 21% Chelsea, 14% Atletico, Huang Qian, Inter, 13% or less); Ajax is also revived again, full victory promotion, these opponents do not have "fuel-saving lamps", Tuchel estimates that it is very stressful. Of course, if you can draw Lille, you'll be lucky.
Highlight 2: Inter, who have finally qualified, may encounter fierce opponents
Inter Milan, the Nerazzurri, who finally entered the knockout round again, gave the fans a lot of possibilities and showed a good recovery trend. From winning the Serie A title last season, to the adaptation period after changing managers, selling people, adjusting to the right track at the beginning of this season, and then to the group qualification now, their steady progress has been recognized by the outside world. However, in the second place in the group stage, it is difficult to guarantee that you can get "good luck", and the overall probability of the Nerazzurri encountering a strong enemy is extremely high.
Inter's potential opponents include Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Ajax and Lille. Roughly calculated, the probability of Inter drawing the big club (Bayern, Manns, Liverpool) is as high as 70%, and if you count the old team Ajax, it is almost "nailed down". This result is somewhat worrying, and it is not easy for Inter to qualify. In contrast, the probability of drawing Manchester United and Liverpool is the largest, with a total of nearly 40%. Cristiano Ronaldo is a familiar old rival of Inter, who has not met much in Juve's years, and the two sides are likely to meet again in Meazza this season.
Inter's goals in the Champions League depend on in Jair Inzaghi's attitude. In the unfavorable situation of selling the main force at the beginning of the season, the new coach Xiaoyin still proposed the goal of "qualifying for the group stage", which was a task that Spalletti and Conte did not complete, and people also gave a lot of doubts at the time. However, the result is good, and the Italian young marshal, who is obsessed with the Champions League, will not be satisfied with this, and he must still have dreams waiting to be realized.
Watch point 3: "Big gift package" who can "sit back and enjoy it"
In addition to the giants, the "big package" team is of course also the focus of much attention, they will be the "good helpers" of the giants to advance, but also the "good partners" that their fans are looking forward to meeting. In the round of 16, Portugal Sport, Benfica and Red Bull Salzburg are relatively weak, and they should be the targets that the giants aspire to.
Let's start with Sporting Portugal, which is worth €198 million. In terms of the probability of the draw, they are less likely to meet Bayern and Lille, only about 10%, and the probability of encountering Real Madrid is relatively high, reaching 17%. In Group C, they pushed Dort to advance, they have good offensive firepower, but the defensive end is really bad (losing 2 goals per game). If you encounter a giant that advocates fighting, it is estimated that it will soon lose.
Looking at Benfica, their total value is 281 million euros. In terms of the probability of the draw, they and Ajax and Lille have a low probability of meeting, and they will meet one of Real Madrid, Manchester City, Juve, Manchester United and Liverpool (the cumulative probability is 80%+). It's really too difficult. Compared to the Portuguese, their attack is not good, scoring 7 goals in 6 games in the group stage, and the goal difference is still -2.
The total value of Red Bull Salzburg is 156 million euros. In terms of the probability of the draw, the probability of them encountering Bayern and Ajax is not high, only 10%, and the remaining Real Madrid, Manchester City, Juve, Manchester United and Liverpool have equal probabilities. Salzburg's ability to qualify is considered to have "exceeded the task", and the next game can be enjoyed.
Highlight 4: The Shooter King War is tense and exciting
The group stage shooters who have played well have played very well, Ale forced Levan to score as many as 10 goals, salah, Ronaldo, Sane, Benzema, Messi, Mahrez and others are still in the knockout lineup. They have the opportunity to continue to improve their stats and contribute to the team.
In addition, after the restructuring of this tournament, the two sides are encouraged to fight against each other, which is also a "positive factor" for the shooters. In the Battle for the Shooter King, how the signing is too important. It is estimated that no one wants to touch the atletico of the bandit Simeone, C Ronaldo and Messi's "double pride summit battle" is naturally very much expected, Levan touching Paris is also a very interesting point to watch, can be seen as the sequel to the "Mr. Ballon d'Or" competition.
epilogue
The upcoming knockout draw ceremony will determine the fate of each team and will also determine the direction of the Champions League event. Who will good luck care for and what group of confrontations will become the focus of heated discussion in the outside world? Will the "double pride war" between C Ronaldo and Messi be staged? Who will Lewandowski meet again? Stay tuned for seven o'clock tonight, the curtain is about to slowly open!
(Li Qian)