The focus shifts to the Fed decision spot gold trend forecast

In the US market on Friday (December 10), spot gold rose about $15 in the short term, refreshing the daily high to $1789.40 / ounce, pulling up nearly $20 from the daily low, and then rushing higher and falling back. Previous data showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose further in November, the biggest year-over-year increase since 1982, and now the focus will turn to the Federal Reserve's December 14-15 policy meeting.

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Kitco's Weekly Gold Survey shows that for next week's gold market, Wall Street agrees that the precious metal is unlikely to fall when the Fed announces accelerated debt purchases.

13 Wall Street analysts participated in this week's survey, and there is no difference between the bullish and the bullish camp. Analysts each expect gold prices to move higher and laterally fluctuate 46% each. The remaining 8% believe gold prices may fall.

The general public is more optimistic. Kitco's survey showed that of the 1,039 retail investors who participated in the survey, 53.6% were bullish on next week's price, 23.9% were bearish and 22.5% were neutral.

Next week's gold market: The Fed is in the spotlight

In the last week before Christmas, top events will come pouring in. However, one thing that stands out is the Fed's policy decision. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely to accelerate the pace of curtailing bond purchase programs and signal a rate hike. The Fed is dealing with rising inflation and a scalding economy. For gold, this move is unfavorable, but gold has basically absorbed this expectation. It is worth noting that Powell sent such a signal long ago. However, any modest acceleration from $15 billion to $20 billion per month could destabilize the market. A sudden announcement of a $25 billion monthly bond purchase would hurt the value of precious metals. Conversely, if the Fed is concerned about the Omicron variant and decides not to change its policy, gold will shine.

Also noteworthy is the Fed's latest interest rate forecast, the so-called "dot plot." Members want to bet on a one rate hike in 2022, and the market has already digested two hikes. If officials hope to achieve two rate hikes in 2022, the dollar could move higher and gold is likely to fall under pressure. The decisions of the other two major central banks are also worth noting. The ECB will announce the expansion of one bond-buying program to make up for the maturity of another bond-buying program. A substantial increase in bond purchases would be good for the price of gold, while not announcing any new news would be bad for the price of gold. At a time when the coronavirus is wreaking more and more damage to the economy, the Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Unexpected rate hikes will put pressure on gold prices, while holding still may not affect the market.

Gold technical analysis: From the daily line, Friday spot gold opened slightly higher after the launch of the downward, the evening once rushed higher, recovered the MA5 day moving average after the fall, recorded with the upper and lower shadow line of the Middle Yang, the daily line, because the gold market did not break the recent highs and thousand eight, there is still a possibility of short-term decline;

From a 4-hour point of view, on Friday, the gold price showed a shock downward trend in the morning after the recovery, and after piercing the middle rail MA20-day moving average, it was blocked by the upper rail resistance to fall, holding near the middle rail, the current Bollinger band is in the opening period, the MA moving average is out of the golden cross, the KDJ random indicator three lines are together upwards, the MACD indicator red kinetic energy column began to appear, and the fast and slow line golden cross is upward.

On the whole, gold is currently recovering at the bottom of the support, there is still an upward trend in the short term, but the previous high is still the current resistance, next Monday the gold price above the 1790-1795 first-line resistance, as well as the 1800 resistance, below the 1770-1775 first-line support, while next week pay attention to the upper and lower breakouts, if the upper breakthrough, then continue to rise to, as the following breakthrough, then return to the bears.