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<h1 toutiao-origin="h3" >1, haoji railway is not in good operation, and is expected to improve in 2021</h1>
Haoji Railway, originally named "Mengxi-Central China Regional Railway", referred to as "Menghua Railway", is a National Railway Class I electrified railway connecting Haole Baoji in Inner Mongolia and Ji'an in Jiangxi Province, and a strategic transportation channel for "North Coal South Transport" in China. On September 28, 2019, 71,001 10,000 tons of coal heavy-duty trains slowly departed from Haole Baoji South Station in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, marking the official opening of the Haoji Railway. In October 2019, the Haoji Railway ran about 10 trains a day, with a capacity of about 35,000 tons. However, affected by the backward construction of the Haoji Railway Collection and Transportation System, as of November 30, the Haoji Railway has sent a total of 18.057 million tons of goods in 2020, and it is expected to complete the transportation volume of 25 million tons in 2020, which is a big gap from the original target transportation volume.
Figure 1 Haoji railway transport road map
Source: Liding Industry Research Center network data collation
< h1 toutiao-origin="h3" >2, "Three West" regional railway shipments</h1>
The distribution of coal resources in China shows the geographical characteristics of more north and less south, more west and less east. 93.6% of the coal resources are distributed in the provinces north of the Kunlun Mountain-Qinling-Dabie Mountain line, and the provinces south of the line account for only 6.4% of the coal resources. The provinces west of the Daxinganling-Taihangshan-Xuefengshan line account for 89% of the country's total coal resources, and the remaining 11% are distributed in 20 provinces east of the line. In Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, where coal resources are concentrated, raw coal production can basically account for 2/3 of the total output scale of the country, and the output is much greater than the consumption, while the demand for coal resources is mainly distributed in the eastern coast and central China where resources are scarce, and the uncoordinated distribution of this resource determines the pattern of "north coal transportation to the south and west coal to the east" of China's coal resources.
In 2020, Inner Mongolia is still the province with the largest supply of thermal coal in the country, with a cumulative supply of 960 million tons of thermal coal throughout the year, but due to factors such as 20 years of backward inspection and coal mine safety inspections, the coal supply in Inner Mongolia has declined significantly, down 8.2% year-on-year. In recent years, the supply of thermal coal in Shanxi has risen well, with a cumulative supply of 720 million tons in the whole year, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate has accelerated year by year. Shaanxi, the main source of goods for the Haoji Railway, supplied 660 million tons of thermal coal throughout the year, a slight increase of 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate has accelerated significantly. In 2020, the supply of thermal coal in the "Three Wests" region will account for 75% of the national total, of which the Shanxi region is mainly transported directly by railway, and the Inner Mongolia region is mainly transported through the combined transport of iron and water, so the Haoji Railway has formed a major benefit to the coal transportation in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia.
Figure 2 Growth in thermal coal supply by province in the past five years
Data source: China Coal Resources Network, compiled by Shanghai International Shipping Research Center
Table 1 Railway shipments in the Three West Regions
< the transfer of h1 toutiao-origin="h3" >3, "two lakes and one river"</h1>
"Two lakes and one river" provinces are the net transfer of coal into the area, the gap between supply and demand in the region is expanding year by year, and the coal transportation from the Shaanxi-Jin-Mongolia region to the "two lakes and one river" area is mainly through direct railway and iron-water intermodal transportation, and the freight is high and the distance is long. The Haoji Railway includes the Shaanxi-Jin-Mongolia region, which is the main coal-producing region, and the Hubei-Gansu region, where the supply is most scarce. According to the plan, the coal supply undertaken by the Haoji Railway mainly comes from Hujirt, Ningdong, Hanlin and other places, of which more than 50% reach Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi account for 30% and 20% respectively.
In terms of the supply of thermal coal in Hubei Province, the total amount of thermal coal transferred in Hubei Province in 2020 was 43.147 million tons, down 22.7% year-on-year. Among them, the amount of railway transfers fell slightly by 9.5% to 25.994 million tons; the amount of waterway transfers fell sharply by 34.6% to 16.47 million tons. The proportion of railway transportation methods has increased significantly from 51% in 2019 to 60%, and The Haoji Railway has also played a role in 2020, undertaking a total of 3.246 million tons of thermal coal transfers in Hubei Province. Therefore, in general, due to the imperfect supporting infrastructure at the collection and transportation end of the Haoji Railway, the railway freight rate has not fully formed an advantage and other factors, the impact on the coastal coal sea into the river is currently relatively limited, and the preliminary estimate is that the Haoji Railway will replace the two-way transport volume of about 5 million-8 million tons in 2020.
Figure 3 Transfer of electricity and coal sub-transportation modes in Hubei Province in 2020
Data source: Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Shanghai International Shipping Research Center collation
Table 2 Comparison of domestic coal arrivals in the "Two Lakes and One River" region from January to November 2020 (unit: 10,000 tons)
Data source: Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Transport, Shanghai International Shipping Research Center collation
< h1 toutiao-origin="h3" >4, the impact of the Haoji Railway on coastal coal transportation in 2021</h1>
After the opening of the Haoji Railway, in about 3 days, coal from northern Shaanxi can directly reach Jingzhou Port or Yueyang Port, the transportation time is greatly shortened, and the transportation convenience is significantly improved. Among them, the freight rate advantage in the central and northern parts of Hubei is the most significant, while along the Yangtze River in Hunan, the freight rate advantage has decreased significantly, and reaching Jiangxi Province is at a disadvantage, and the equivalent value of the Haoji Railway and the existing railway and the transportation cost of the sea into the river is about the same as that in the Yueyang area. In the later period, the increase in the shipment of the Haoji Line mainly depends on the construction progress of supporting facilities such as the branch line, the coal storage base and the transit port. The collection terminals such as the Xiaoji Khan Coal Mine Special Line and the Yuheng Branch Line on the Jingshen Railway Coal Mine Branch Line, and the Xintao Line such as the Yingpan Trench Coal Mine Special Line, etc.; the most important thing at the evacuation end is the Haoji Line and the introduction and docking renovation project of the Jiaoliu Railway Gaoying Station in Xiangyang, Hubei Province. In 2021, with the acceleration of the construction of regional railways and infrastructure projects at the end of the Haoji Line, the bottleneck restricting the increase in the shipment volume of the Haoji Line is gradually alleviating. It is expected that the transportation volume of the Haoji line will increase by 15-20 million tons, and the total amount will reach 35-40 million tons, further squeezing the market share of the sea into the river. Among them, the impact on the transportation of thermal coal in Hubei and Hunan continues to increase, and the Hubei Provincial Energy Bureau and Shaanxi Coal Group have signed an agreement: 11 million tons of Shaanxi coal will enter Hubei in 2021.
Table 3 The special railway line at the terminal of the Haoji Railway will be opened this year and next year
Source: Easy Coal Research Institute
Table 4 Construction and design of some coal storage bases at the transportation end with a diversion capacity of more than 1 million tons
For details, please refer to the report of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center on "2020 Review and 2021 Outlook of China's Major Coastal Dry Bulk Transport Markets".
▊Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, Institute of Shipping Development
▊Director: Dr. Zhou Dequan, Senior Engineer
▊Assistant Director: Dr. Li Qianwen
▊Main research backbone: Chen Youchao, Wang Yi, Liao Qingmei, Wang Minjie, Sun Jilei, Cai Rui, Wang Shuhua, Chen Weifei, Lu Lipeng, Jia Pingping, Ge Dayun, An Xiaoyi
▊Main report products: "China Shipping Boom Report", "China Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis Report", "China Container Shipping Market Analysis Report", etc
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