Local time reported on September 12, 2021, the mayor of Paris, France, Anne Hidalgo, announced her candidacy for the presidency of France, seeking to become the first female president of France. Photo/IC Photo
With the 2022 French presidential election still five months away, presidential candidates from various Political Parties in France have stepped in.
On the 4th local time, the right-wing republican party Nominated Pekrés as the party's presidential candidate, which is the first time in the history of the party to introduce a female presidential candidate. Together with the candidate of the Socialist Party of the Left Grand Party, the current mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, and the president of the far-right "National Union", Marina Le Pen, there has been a rare "explosion" of female candidates in this French presidential election.
Will the 2022 French election become a drama for three women to sing the protagonist, and will France usher in the first female president in history?
Each of the three female candidates has an advantage in the future
Two of the current candidates for the French general elections are in the spotlight: one is Jean-Luc Mélange, chairman of the left-wing "indomitable France" party. He made it clear that Taiwan is a province of China and that "France does not have to follow the United States through muddy waters," and that the other is zemmer, a far-right independent candidate and commentator on current affairs, who was at one point in the lead in the October polls.
In the first round of the 2022 French general election, incumbent Presidents Macron, Le Pen and Zemour were in the top three, receiving about 25%, 20% and 15% of the votes respectively, according to a Poll of 28.
As for the three female candidates, at the time of this round of polls, Pekrés had not yet won in the Republican Party and was not included. Judging from the latest survey results, only Le Pen has the hope of standing in the decisive moment of the three female candidates, but in fact, Pecres and Hidalgo also have a certain back-end advantage.
Pekerez's Republican Party, which has produced four presidents, De Gaulle, Pompidou, Chirac and Sarkozy, still holds a majority in the Senate, and the party advantage helps Pecqueres to work in the future.
Hidalgo's Socialist Party was hit hard in the 2017 election and has not recovered. But after all, the Socialist Party is the main big party in France, there have also been two presidents, Mitterrand and Hollande, macron was also a member of the Socialist Party, if the left camp can be integrated in the late stage of the election, it may also become a key force affecting the outcome of the French election.
As a veteran politician, Le Pen has a wealth of experience in elections. Zemour, who shares Le Pen's political spectrum, was still ahead of Le Pen in October polls, but was easily overtaken by Le Pen just over a month later. This proves that Le Pen is "full of staying power".
On June 20, 2021, local time, the first round of voting for the 2021 regional council and provincial council elections in France was held, and French President Macron participated in the voting. Photo/IC Photo
The candidates on the table also have their own weaknesses
However, the candidates on the table at present also have their own weaknesses.
Macron founded the Republican Forward Party in April 2016, taking a middle line beyond the left and right, and in just two months the Republican Forward Party became the largest political party in France, defeating Le Pen in the 2017 general election. After Le Pen's fiasco, he began to revise the far-right line slightly, no longer defending the Nazis, and cautiously moved toward the center right. But her revisions, which led to the loss of votes from the far right, were less recognizable, and had not been fruitful in recent French local elections and Senate re-elections, giving Zemour an opportunity.
Peckles was somewhat lucky to be the Republican presidential candidate. In the first round of the party primary, Pekrés had no advantage, trailing Behind Theotti. It was Theotti's own "work" that ultimately gave Pereix the victory— Theotti advocated nationality based on descent and even demanded the establishment of a "French Guantanamo prison", leading to the joint election of Pekers by other party candidates, which ultimately helped Pekrés win.
In addition, the French Republican Party has a tradition of "infighting". Macron's rise in 2016 was related to the fact that he attracted a large number of Republican moderates. Therefore, whether Pékrés can win the support of the whole party is still unknown.
Hidalgo is a descendant of Spanish immigrants, and her roots in the Socialist Party are not very strong, and French public opinion does not regard her as a popular candidate. She has been successful in containing the decline of the Socialist Party.
As for Zemur, he was almost attacked in the campaign campaign for a series of claims in France, such as banning Arab names, banning the entry of African students, and suspending immigration approvals. These obvious political flaws doomed him to go further.
Eric Zemour, a far-right political amateur known as the "French version of Trump", was suddenly attacked on the campaign campaign on December 5, local time. Screenshot of the figure/ring video
It is likely to be a tiebreaker that is uncomfortable for all parties
According to the law, Macron can announce his candidacy by January 30, 2022 at the latest.
Although Macron has yet to announce his candidacy, most believe he will pursue re-election and wait for the arrival of his final opponent in the decider.
As things stand, Macron's eventual opponents are likely to come from the right and far right, namely Le Pen and Pecqueres.
It will be a tiebreaker that will be uncomfortable for all three parties.
On the one hand, Macron will be caught between two right-wing female generals, Le Pen and Pekerez. In particular, Pekrés, whose main campaign platform is her exposition of authority, freedom and equality, is quite close to Macron's economic advocacy of liberalism and social governance emphasis on equality, which may divert the votes of centrists and right-wing moderates.
At the same time, Le Pen and Pecrés had a hard time. At the time of the Republican primary, the five candidates competed against each other on immigration and security issues, similar to the far-right claims, which threatened to divert votes that originally supported Le Pen. In turn, it is also possible to divert votes that would otherwise support the Republican Party.
In fact, Macron himself has recently quietly pandered to some of the right's views, such as: beginning to emphasize security issues – behind the immigration issues ; and began to pander to the right's nuclear energy claims. This is the tactic that Macron mastered in the 2017 election, that is, to grab the vote on the right wing. This seems to imply that whoever wins the trust of the right will take the initiative in the 2022 French election.
The French election will be a "center right" and "right" dispute.
Beijing News special writer | Xu Lifan (Columnist)
Edit | Li Xiaoxiao
Proofreading | Chen Diyan