Will Russia "invade" Ukraine? Will war break out between the two countries? Recently, due to the hot speculation in Western countries on this topic, some netizens have constantly asked me, hoping that I can talk about this issue.
In the history of human warfare, almost all wars have had a cause of war, especially for the initiators of wars. There is a struggle for territory, a struggle for treasure, a strategic position, a struggle for hegemony, and the Trojan War as we know it, as reflected in the movie "Trojan Horse", which is caused by the struggle for the most beautiful woman in the world, Helen.
Recently, some Western media and governments have accused Russia of potentially "invading" Ukraine early next year. For example: "The transfer of Russian troops to the vicinity of the Ukrainian border has caused concern to the United States and Europe", "Satellite images show russian troops strengthening their military forces near Ukraine", "The United States warned Europe that Russia may plan to invade Ukraine", "Zelenskiy talked about the possibility of a Russo-Ukrainian war", "Ukrainian intelligence revealed the date of Russian invasion"...
In addition, Ukraine also accused Russia of deploying 115,000 troops in areas close to the Ukrainian border, Russia responded that Moscow has the right to move troops on its territory, and accused Kiev of amassing 125,000 troops in eastern Ukraine, which is half of Ukraine's total military strength. The Russian side also accused Ukraine of constantly launching provocations.
The United States even claimed on December 1 that it had "evidence" that Russia had developed a "large-scale" attack on Ukraine.
As for the statement that "Russia is ready to invade Ukraine", Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said that it was "alarmist". He said Moscow would also never agree to being a party to the Conflict in Ukraine.
With so many Russians and Ukraine likely to erupt into war, is it really possible for the two countries to go to war?
To judge whether Russia will "invade" Ukraine, we must see what Russia can get if it "invades". From the current point of view, there should be no war between Russia and Ukraine. We know that the war is a continuation of politics, and at the moment, russia's overall economic situation is not good, according to the Statistics of the International Monetary Fund, from 2014 to 2018, Western sanctions caused an average annual loss of about 0.2 percentage points of Russian GDP. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on June 20, 2019, that Russia has lost about $50 billion since sanctions since 2014. Russian-European trade has fallen sharply, from $410 billion in 2013 to about $219 billion in 2020. In addition, among the many sanctions imposed by the West against Russia, financial sanctions and technical blockades are the most lethal, and Russia's two pillar industries , energy and military industry , have been seriously impacted. The main reason for Russia's economy is because of the sanctions imposed by the European and American countries caused by the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
In addition, the current Western countries claim that Russia may "invade" Ukraine, although even the US secretary of state pointed out that he does not know what the intention is, but there are still Western media intelligence personnel to analyze: Russian leaders have repeatedly emphasized that Russians and Ukrainians are "one nation"; large areas of Ukraine are part of Russia's history, which was arbitrarily given to Ukraine by communist leaders during the Soviet Union; Russia in order to build a buffer zone between NATO and Russia to avoid Ukraine from joining NATO. Because Putin strongly emphasized that Ukraine's desire to join NATO is Moscow's red line, he also expressed concern about the plans of some NATO members to build military training centers in Ukraine and have military strongholds in Ukraine.
In fact, at the beginning of this year, Western countries discussed the issue of Russian troops entering Ukraine. Putin pointed out that this did not happen. The reality is that Russia will not, and it is not expected, to "invade" Ukraine for some time to come, unless something happens bilaterally that threatens Russia's core interests.
But why is the West constantly hyping this up?
The biggest reason should be the "unity" of the United States for the West. During the Trump administration, he pursued an "America First" policy that strained U.S. relations with Europe and many of its allies. As a representative of the establishment, Biden plans to reunite and repair the "wounded" US-EU relations after taking office, so values diplomacy has become the main axis of Biden's diplomacy. But simply calling on countries with the same values to unite seems very dry, and the establishment of "enemy" clamor "threats" is the best way to do it. In this way, by declaring in Asia that Chinese mainland will "attack Taiwan by force" and in Europe that Russia will "invade" Ukraine, we can call on countries with the same so-called "values" in the world to unite and resist the so-called "threat" from China and Russia.
In the case of provoking Russia's "threat" for Europe, the United States, Europe and NATO are providing training to the Ukrainian army, aiding weapons, and instigating Ukraine to attack the so-called "rebels" in the east, thus exposing Russia to real danger. When Russia redeployed its forces on its own soil, rumors of a Russian "invasion" of Ukraine were sent from the West.
Therefore, a war between Russia and Ukraine will not break out, but at the instigation of the United States and other Western countries, the crisis between the two countries may increase. In the face of this "conspiracy" of the United States and the West, even if Russia, which likes territorial expansion, should not go to "exhaustive military force", the voice of the United States and other "demonization" of China and Russia will continue.