Yu Xiaoqing, senior reporter of The Paper
After 13 months, Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, once again held consultations with Xu Xun, director of the South Korean National Security Office. The last time was in Busan, South Korea, and this time in Tianjin.
According to Xinhua News Agency on December 2, Yang Jiechi said that China and the ROK are each other's important close neighbors and partners, and since the establishment of diplomatic relations, the relations between the two countries have developed in an all-round and rapid manner, and have been continuously improving and upgrading. This conforms to the trend of the times and conforms to the common interests of both sides.
With regard to the situation on the Korean Peninsula, Yang Jiechi pointed out that China has consistently supported the improvement of relations between the South and the North of the Peninsula, advocated resolving the Korean Peninsula issue through dialogue and consultation in accordance with the "dual-track" line of thinking and the principle of taking steps and going hand in hand, and was willing to play a constructive role with all relevant parties in safeguarding peace and stability on the Peninsula and achieving long-term peace and stability on the Peninsula. Xu Xuan also said that the ROK is willing to work with the Chinese side to make unremitting efforts to build permanent peace on the peninsula
According to the Yonhap News Agency quoted by South Korea's Blue House on December 3, the consultations between China and South Korea on the 2nd lasted for a total of 5 hours and 35 minutes, and Yang Jiechi and Xu Xuan also had dinner after the consultation.
Expert: The Declaration on the End of War on the Peninsula will not be reached in the short term
Recently, China and south Korea have interacted closely. On November 1, Liu Xiaoming, special representative of the Chinese government for Korean Peninsula affairs, held a video conference with Roo Gy-deok, minister of the Korean Foreign Ministry's Peace Representation on the Peninsula. South Korean Ambassador to China Jang Ha Sung also met with Yang Jiechi and Assistant Chinese Foreign Minister Wu Jianghao on November 17 and November 25.
In addition, it is worth noting that on November 22, Chinese Ambassador to the ROK Xing Hae-ming publicly and clearly emphasized for the first time in an interview with the ROK media that China is open to the signing of the declaration of the end of the war between the ROK and the DPRK. Xing Haiming pointed out in particular that China is one of the parties to the Korean Armistice Agreement, and the relevant matters related to the signing of the declaration on the end of the war should be consulted with the Chinese side.
After this round of close interaction and China's clear statement, Xu Xuan's visit to China is particularly important. South Korean media have generally predicted that the relevant content of the declaration of the end of the war will become the core content of the consultations between China and South Korea in Tianjin. Yonhap News Agency quoted the Blue House on the 3rd as saying that Xu Xuan briefed the Chinese side on the declaration of the end of the war and other efforts made by the ROK side to promote the progress of the peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
However, the experts interviewed generally believe that it will still take time to reach the final declaration. Lu Chao, chief expert of the Center for North Korea and Korea Studies of the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the www.thepaper.cn that from now on, the prospects for the declaration of the end of the war are not very optimistic. After the end of the Korean War, the peninsula is still in a state of armistice, that is to say, from a legal point of view, the peninsula has not entered an era of peace, and in this sense, the declaration of the end of the war is of positive significance to both the South and the North, including the international community, and will bring a new dawn of peace to the peninsula. Moreover, as a signatory to the armistice agreement in that year, only the declaration of the end of the war in which China participated truly has legal significance.
Lü Chao believes that the reality is that the United States does not have a clear attitude on the issue of the declaration of the end of the war at present, and the situation of the United States is obviously contradictory. If the declaration of the end of the war comes into effect, the legitimacy of the US military in South Korea will be questioned; if the United States refuses to sign it, it will lose the attitude and responsibility that a major country should have in the international morality, and the contradictions between the United States and South Korea will be further highlighted. Therefore, the progress of the next final war declaration must first depend on the attitude of the United States.
Liu Tiancong, deputy director and associate researcher of the Korean Peninsula Research Center of the China Academy of Contemporary International Relations, also pointed out in an interview with The Paper that from a realistic point of view, the declaration of the end of the war is not easy to achieve in the short term. At present, south Korea is actively promoting and taking the initiative to mediate, and China is willing to play a constructive role, but the core parties, the United States and the DPRK, are not active. From the perspective of the United States, in order to contain and encircle China, the United States does not want to see long-term peace and stability on the peninsula and solidify peace, and it wants to leave sufficient strategic space for itself to muddy the waters, fearing that signing the declaration of the end of the war will bind itself; at the same time, the declaration of the end of the war may also cause the United States to be passive in legal theory, bring about the existence and abolition of the United Nations Military Command, and the legal status of the US military stationed in the ROK, and affect the closeness of the East Asian alliance system. In addition, there is also a temperature difference between the US and the ROK on the position, order, and conditions of the end-of-war declaration in the denuclearization process.
Liu Tiancong said that from the perspective of the DPRK, the DPRK does not reject the declaration of the end of war itself, but he believes that judging from the policies and measures taken by the United States and the ROK toward the DPRK in recent years, the two countries have not stopped their hostility toward the DPRK and have not released political sincerity toward the DPRK.
In 1953, China and North Korea signed an armistice with U.S.-led United Nations forces. However, an armistice agreement is not the same as a peace agreement, and in fact the Korean Peninsula has not theoretically ended the state of war for decades, but only a state of armistice. In September, South Korean President Moon Jae-in briefed the international community on the idea of an end-of-war declaration in his address to the United Nations General Assembly. Since then, the declaration of the end of the war has become a high-frequency word in the situation on the peninsula.
Notably, the North Korean leadership has publicly mentioned its position on the end-of-war declaration at least twice. According to the KCNA news on September 24, Kim Yo-jong, vice minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, made a speech on the 24th. Kim Yo-jong said that south Korea's declaration of the end of the war is a very interesting proposal and a good idea. But "it is only right to look first at whether the time is right and whether all the conditions are met for discussion".
The policy address delivered by The Supreme Leader of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un, delivered on September 29 at the meeting on the second day of the fifth session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea also pointed out that before the end of the war is declared, mutual respect must be guaranteed, and it is first necessary to change the dual attitude of prejudice and injustice towards the other side, and withdraw hostile views and policies, which is the constant demand that we have always insisted on.
As the main signatories of the armistice agreement, the DPRK, China, and the ROK have all made clear statements on the declaration of the end of the war, but the United States has not yet taken a clear attitude towards the end of the war. In this regard, Liu Tiancong believes that since the Biden administration came to power, the "new policy" for the DPRK is "new bottle of old wine", has no political sincerity and operability, and the DPRK issue is also very low in the ranking of the Biden administration's domestic and foreign policies. Some gestures against north Korea are mainly for allies to show in order to tighten the alliance system, and North Korea knows all this.
In stark contrast to the attitude of the United States is the urgency of the South Koreans, who will step down in the middle of next year, leaving insufficient time for the current government to make a breakthrough. Hong Hyun-il, president of South Korea's National Diplomatic Academy, warned on November 30 that the summer of 2022 would be a "very dangerous" summer if the final declaration did not materialize. To this end, the ROK and the United States should postpone next year's joint military exercises in order to resume negotiations with the DPRK as soon as possible.
The Beijing Winter Olympics will be an opportunity for the North and the South to meet?
Next year, China-ROK relations will lead to an important node for the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. Statistics from China's Ministry of Commerce show that the total bilateral trade between China and South Korea in 2020 exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year. China is South Korea's largest foreign trading partner and has maintained its number one for 17 consecutive years, while South Korea is also China's fifth largest foreign trading partner in 2020.
Yang Jiechi said in consultations on December 2 this year that this year and next year will be the "Year of Cultural Exchange between China and South Korea" determined by President Xi Jinping and President Moon Jae-in, and next year will be the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The Chinese side is willing to take this opportunity with the ROK to uphold the spirit of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, strengthen high-level exchanges and strategic communication, deepen pragmatic cooperation and integrated development, enhance national feelings, and jointly build a more mature and stable China-ROK strategic cooperative partnership.
In this regard, Lu Chao analyzed that the current Sino-South Korean relations are in a relatively good stage, since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, China and South Korea have grown a lot in economic and trade, in addition, China and South Korea on many international issues also have similar opinions, "Therefore, I think the opportunity of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations next year will further promote the development of bilateral relations." As for the general election that South Korea will usher in next year, I think this will not have a big impact on mature China-South Korea relations, and no matter which party is in power, the new government will not adjust the direction of actively promoting China-South Korea relations. ”
At the same time, due to the interaction between the two koreas during the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in 2018, the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics are also widely believed to be a breakthrough opportunity for Sino-South Korean relations and even the situation on the peninsula. On more than one occasion, the South Korean side has publicly expressed its hope to take advantage of the Beijing Winter Olympics to carry out interaction with the DPRK. In a meeting with State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in September this year, Moon said he hoped that the Beijing Winter Olympics would become a "nother turning point" in improving inter-Korean relations and contribute to peace in Northeast Asia and world peace.
Wang Yi also said at the time that China firmly supports the two sides of the peninsula in overcoming difficulties, eliminating interference, improving relations, and will continue to play a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula and achieving long-term peace and stability on the peninsula.
According to Yonhap News Agency on December 3, an unnamed senior South Korean government official said on the 3rd that at present, South Korea and China are promoting the visit of South Korean Minister of Culture and Sports Hwang Hee to China, and the possibility of Moon Jae-in taking the opportunity of the Beijing Winter Olympics to visit China is not ruled out. Xinhua News Agency also specifically mentioned in the report on the 2nd that Xu Xuan expressed "support and wish China a successful hosting of the Beijing Winter Olympics."
Liu Tiancong analyzed that the Beijing Winter Olympics is a good time for contacts and interaction between the North and the South, and the Chinese side is willing to provide support for easing the situation on the peninsula and promoting the resumption of dialogue; the DPRK's policy stance is consistent; the Moon Jae-in government hopes to leave a meaningful and complete political legacy in its relations with the DPRK during its term of office, and whether the two sides can complete the interaction mainly depends on the policy strength of the ROK. However, there is another important external variable – the pandemic. Recently, a new wave of global epidemic has come, and the pressure of epidemic prevention in South Korea is also very large, and the DPRK attaches great importance to epidemic prevention and control and always adheres to zero infection in China. Whether the two sides can meet and interact offline during the Beijing Winter Olympics also depends on the epidemic situation at that time.
Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Jiang Lidong
Proofreader: Yan Zhang
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