The market is still very difficult to do these two days, a good day, a bad day. Don't be too aggressive in this environment. Since the suspension and verification of Tuoxin Pharmaceutical, the probability of eating noodles the next day after chasing the rise is still relatively large. On the contrary, stocks that climb up from the bottom, intervene when there is a pullback, and often have some short-term opportunities.
The trend of the market has not changed, but the intermediate process is too complicated, and every day the disk surface shows some strange phenomena, which give people a very uncomfortable feeling.
For example, there are some well-structured targets, which do not play cards according to the routine at all, and there will always be some tricks to clean the retail households before pulling up, and the ultra-short ecological environment is very bad.
For example, the meta-universe we emphasized yesterday, under a comment in the People's Daily today, the morning plate was smashed very fiercely.
However, it is clear that some new concepts carry people's confidence in technological development and expectations for a better life in the future. It takes time to promote new concepts and their industries to mature gradually, and the road to a fascinating future of science and technology requires down-to-earth and a good foundation for development.
Just as the central word is "reality" whether it is virtual reality, augmented reality, or mixed reality, this also indicates that without the support of reality, it is ultimately a mirage without roots. The truth that "the foundation is not solid" should be applicable in both the real universe and the metaverse.
This news is actually not too bearish, but let the market rationally look at the industry. But the market reaction is very strong, and the early metacosm is very seriously suppressed.
However, in the afternoon, the plate suddenly exerted force again, and then quickly went to the Internet to find out if there was any good news, and there was nothing. The old dragon head Tianxia Show and the Lingnan shares mentioned in yesterday's article were once almost the pull-up and stop of the earth-to-sky plate, making the meta-universe plate active again, but at the close, the strength was still weak.
Through these phenomena, several problems can be reflected:
First, the theme of the metaverse will not fall easily, but it needs more time to brew, in fact, to put it bluntly, it is to give capital more time to open positions.
Second, the rhythm of the short-term market is now more difficult to grasp, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, today's good tomorrow is not necessarily good, today's bad tomorrow is not necessarily bad. Therefore, mastering the rhythm is the key, if you can't grasp the rhythm, then be patient with low absorption of shares, or wait for the opportunity in the short position.
Today will not update the content of the plate, yesterday also said, the main line of the market is not clear, a new energy, a meta-universe, although there are pull-ups, but the sustainability is very general. It's hard to tell the direction of the main attack of money now.
When it comes to new energy, we have to talk more about it. The track of new energy must have great development in the long run, but short-term participation should pay attention to grasping good opportunities and not listening to the wind.
In the past two days, some institutions have released some news, believing that the price of lithium resources will rise. In fact, the price continues to rise is basically a clear card, after all, it is a scarce resource, and now the demand is strong. The key question is where is the expected difference?
From a fundamental point of view, the first quarter of each year is the off-season for electric vehicle sales, and the downstream demand is relatively weak, so supply and demand will tend to be balanced. After the second quarter, it will enter the peak season. If you look at the industry in this way, you should consider starting the layout in the first quarter, not now.
And from the structural analysis of the stock price operation, most of the stocks in the sector are still in the downward channel, although the rebound has been two days, but this afternoon's performance, it is obvious that there have been funds to slip, indicating that it is only a rebound of the market, not yet sustainable, then the participation is naturally greatly reduced.
Here are some of my feelings about upstream lithium resources. So why is the market so entangled, I think through the trend can be a good judgment. Because the Shanghai index is in this position, it has never been able to stand on the 60-day moving average, and it has never been able to put the volume.
In the past month, the most expressed macro strategy of institutions is that there is no systemic risk in the market at present. Since there is no systemic risk, there will be no bear market in the market, and the conclusion is that the structural market continues.
Since the structural market continues and is finally implemented into the market, it is necessary to have a natural bottoming process in order to complete the bottoming. Until the stock price does not move, the volume shrinks to the extreme, and then at a certain point in time the reversal occurs, which is called the natural bottom, and the turn that occurs at the natural bottom is very valuable.
Looking at the operation of the Shanghai index now, it is obvious that this process has not been completed, and recently I have been emphasizing that the index will slide to near 3400 points, although I do not want to go here, but all the market characteristics are leading the index to this point.
All we can do is respect the laws of the market and follow the market. On the day of the turn, it will naturally reveal a lot of characteristics that should be there.
Risk Warning: The above content is only a personal point of view, for the exchange of reference, all content does not do the basis for trading operations, according to this intervention, risk at your own risk, investment risk, enter the market need to be cautious.