China's property market has always had three unsolved mysteries:
The media says that house prices are falling, why am I still rising here?
Why are so many people buying a house? Where did the money come from?
In all of China, how many rich people are speculating in houses?
Today, the first two I will not tell you, this has to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.
On the contrary, it is the third one, I have a ready-made answer here, may wish to take a look.
A few days ago, Hurun, a Britishman who loves to study china's rich people, released the latest report.
This time, it is the "2021 China High Net Worth Family Safety Report".
The so-called high-net-worth population refers to high-net-worth families with tens of millions of yuan of net assets.
According to the data, the number of high-net-worth households with assets of tens of millions of yuan in China has reached 2.02 million.
Among them, the proportion of speculators accounts for 10%.
In other words, 1 in every 10 millionaires is flipping houses.
I looked it up and it was the same as the Fortune 2020 report released at the beginning of the year, so this is last year's data.
So, is this more or less?
I compared the data for the past four years, as shown in the following table:
In terms of proportion, it was 15% in 2017 and 10% from 2018 to 2020.
However, because the total base is different every year, the number of tenants among high-net-worth people has also changed.
Therefore, from the quantitative point of view, in 2017, the number of high-net-worth people speculating in the largest number of tenants reached 279,000.
It began to decline sharply to 201,000 households in 2018, fell to 198,000 in 2019, and increased to 202,000 households in 2020.
In addition to high-net-worth people, among ultra-high-net-worth people, there are actually speculators.
The so-called ultra-high-net-worth population refers to ultra-high-net-worth families with assets of 100 million yuan.
According to the data, the number of ultra-high-net-worth households with assets of 100 million yuan in China in 2020 is 130,000.
Among them, the proportion of speculators is higher than that of high-net-worth individuals, reaching 15%.
Similarly, I compared the data for the last four years, as shown in the following table:
In terms of proportion, in addition to 10% in 2019, 15% in 2017, 2018 and 2020.
But in the same way, because the total base of each year is different, the number of speculators among ultra-high-net-worth people has also changed.
From the quantitative point of view, in 2018, the number of tenants speculating in the ultra-high net worth population was the largest, reaching 20,000 households.
It was 18,200 in 2017, 12,700 in 2019 and 19,500 in 2020.
In fact, high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth people basically support half of the sky of China's rich.
So, when I add up the number of speculators in these two groups of rich people, I come up with the following table:
It can be seen that it is still the most in 2017, a sharp decrease in 2018, another decrease in 2019, and a rebound in 2020.
Why is that? What happened?
Looking back at history, we know that 2017 is the big year of regulation, and many popular cities have introduced strict purchase restriction and sales restriction policies, such as Guangzhou's 317 and 330 policies, which were born that year.
And the rich people speculate on houses is not like ordinary speculators, rich and willful, casually buy, they usually only pick popular cities, popular locations of the mansion to start.
Therefore, the strict policies of popular cities in 2017 not only blocked ordinary speculators, but also blocked out many rich people who wanted to speculate.
Later, house prices gradually fell, and policies in various places also began to relax, especially in 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the economy fell sharply, different rescue policies were introduced in various places, and central mothers also began to release water.
Therefore, out of the demand for asset appreciation and value preservation, the desire of the rich to speculate in houses has been ignited again.
According to data from Sohu Finance, in 2020, 43.14% of investors believe that investment real estate is the best wealth tool to resist the uncertainty of the economic environment and the sharp fluctuations in the market.
Of course, the boom in speculation among the rich has also continued this year, and even intensified.
According to Kerry data, in the first half of this year, the national luxury housing market transaction volume was significantly increased.
In the 157 key monitoring cities, the total price of luxury houses of more than 10 million yuan has accumulated 24,451 sets of transactions, an increase of 71% year-on-year and 97% over the same period in 2019.
In the TOP20 cities, the transactions are basically up, like Beijing, which has traded 4102 sets, up 140% year-on-year, and Guangzhou has also traded 1496 sets, an increase of 222% year-on-year.
In the current downturn in the property market, the phenomenon of buying luxury houses in bear markets is not uncommon.
For example, not long ago, the No. 1 Courtyard of Sunac Academy in Haidian, Beijing, opened, and more than 2,000 People grabbed 2,000 Marriott Houses, and sold more than 10 billion yuan at the first opening.
Two days ago, the Biyun Residence in Pudong, Shanghai, opened subscription, and the subscription amount alone was as high as 6 million.
I believe you still remember that this is the luxury house that was on the hot search last year, when buyers fought in order to grab the house.
This time it is a tail of goods, a total of 173 sets, the average price is still 112,000 / ㎡, and even if the developer has also raised the subscription threshold, there are still many thieves who buy it.
2020 Biyun Zundi robbed the scene
The rich rushed to buy, and the price of luxury houses naturally rose.
According to the global urban luxury house price index released by Knight Frank, in the third quarter of 2021, the price of luxury houses in Shanghai increased by as much as 20.5% year-on-year, ranking third in the world.
In front of Shanghai are Miami (26.4%) and Seoul (22.6%) in South Korea, both cities where house prices have soared before.
Some people are buying like crazy, and some people are crazy selling.
After all, the anti-fall mansion can not only be used to show off, but also to pay off debts.
You see, isn't Boss Xu the most vivid example?
The three villas of Shenzhen Bay No. 1, Qiao Xin Hui Yue Tai and Hong Kong were sold.
Unfortunately, not as frank as other big guys, so far, Boss Xu has not even issued an announcement.
In the field of legal auction houses, luxury houses are also frequent customers.
For example, The benchmark of Hangzhou mansions, Wulin No. 1, released a set of legal auction houses some time ago.
Although it was a gimmick of a 1 yuan auction, the actual deposit was 4.355 million yuan.
In the end, after 85 rounds of quotations, the listing was sold for 98.4 million yuan, more than 10 million yuan higher than the market price.
Two days ago, a mansion in Shanghai Gubei No. 1 was also sold at a price of 175 million yuan, with a unit price of more than 260,000 / ㎡, higher than the market price.
Hey, the reality is so magical, everyone is complaining that money is too difficult to earn, but there are still many rich people who spend a lot of money to speculate in houses.
Perhaps, when the real estate tax pilot is officially landed, such a crazy phenomenon will gradually disappear.
Part of the source: Real Estate Intelligence Station
Source: Real Estate Investment PLUS