The National Bureau of Statistics reported on the 17th that China's GDP in the first quarter 206504 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year at comparable prices. This is the first time that China has experienced negative growth since the release of quarterly GDP in 1992. A number of Chinese economists said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that this figure is within expectations, showing the major negative impact of the new crown epidemic on China and the global economy, but China's basic people's livelihood and production have not been greatly impacted, and the resilience and growth space of China's economy are still very large.
Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the Counsellor's Office of the State Council and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 17th that the rapid development of the new crown epidemic, the wide range of infection, especially the difficulty of prevention and control, have caused a major impact on the global economy, based on this, the industry has been expecting that China will have a decline of more than 5% in the first quarter. As a result, the 6.8% decline is within the expected range.
Yao Jingyuan believes that although China's GDP has rarely seen a significant decline since the recorded first quarter, the basic livelihood production of China's 1.4 billion people during the epidemic has not been greatly impacted, and the entire society is operating in an orderly manner, showing the resilience and anti-risk ability of the Chinese economy. He believes that China's economy will have a relatively good recovery in the second quarter, but we should pay attention to the risks from the external environment, especially the situation that the epidemic abroad will suppress China's foreign trade.
"-6.8% is a realistic figure, on the one hand, it reflects the actual impact of the epidemic on economic operation, and we must attach great importance to the sharp decline in the economy, and we must support enterprises to bail out, stimulate consumption, and release vitality with reform." For example, Guan Qingyou, president of the Institute of Financial Research, told the Global Times, "On the other hand, the impact of the epidemic has been clarified, macro policies and enterprises can be lightly loaded, which is equivalent to a big bath, the space, strength and rhythm of policy operations are clear, listed companies can squeeze out water, and a new round of reshuffle will come ahead of schedule." ”
Guan Qingyou believes that at the same time, it must be noted that in many fields and many industries, the actual impact is more serious, and enterprise self-help is indispensable, "it is very urgent to make up our minds to start from the reform of factors and stimulate the vitality of a new round of growth." He said that the space and resilience of China's economic growth is very strong, as long as the thinking is correct and the measures are appropriate, China's economy will recover rapidly in the short term, and the growth potential in the long run is still very large.
Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 17th that at present, although the new crown pneumonia epidemic may last for half a year to a year, the direct impact on each macroeconomic body is about 60 days, so it should be regarded as a sudden event for the time being, and it is not expected to lead to a decline in the last three quarters of this year on the same scale as the first quarter. If the figure of 6%-6.2% in the last three quarters of last year is taken as a reference, China's gdp growth rate for the whole year may still reach 3%.
However, Cao Heping stressed that to reach this figure, three preconditions are needed: the epidemic will not repeat itself in China, there will be no serious trade retaliation between countries, and China's economic policies will be moderately effective. He does not believe that the epidemic will have a long-term impact on the demand side, so economic growth will gradually recover after the recovery of the supply side, that is, the production side.
Huang Yuchuan, former director of the World Bank's China Business Bureau, said in an interview with the Global Times that China's factories are gradually recovering production capacity, but measures such as the decline in demand side and market, as well as Western lockdowns, will make it difficult for Chinese manufacturers to obtain orders, and China's economic slowdown may continue in the second quarter. But things are likely to improve in the third and fourth quarters, meaning China's annual growth rate could be between 0 and 1 percent.
"This will be the slowest year for China's economic growth in recent decades, but as long as positive growth can be maintained, it is already very lucky, because there is a high probability that there will be a recession in Europe and the United States." He suggested that China should no longer try to maintain a certain growth target and make maintaining production capacity the most important task, "that is, once the situation improves, China is ready and can quickly raise production capacity to the level it needs."
Yao Jingyuan reminded that compared with GDP data, it is more important to pay attention to the employment situation, and to take stable employment as a key point of economic development, especially the employment of migrant workers and college students. "College graduates reached an all-time high of 8.75 million this year, but the willingness to hire workers in the corporate sector is waning. We should study how to make enterprises not lay off employees and reduce employees, and then study how to let enterprises increase the number of workers and create new jobs. ”
According to the National Bureau of Statistics reported on the 17th, 2.29 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide in the first quarter, and the unemployment rate in the national urban survey in March was 5.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from February. Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said on the 17th that despite the impact of the epidemic, the employment situation was generally stable, and no large-scale layoffs occurred across the country.
Yao Jingyuan said that although China is facing a complex internal and external situation, it is still the country with the most sound industrial chain in the world, and "based on all aspects of the situation, China's economy should have no problem achieving a good report card this year."
Source: World Wide Web