In the past 7 trading days (11.2~ 11.10), I have been sticking to the current point of A shares, and its future market has limited room for decline. At the same time, since October 8, I have maintained the qualitative judgment that the market belongs to the institutional settlement superposition of position adjustment and stock exchange.
In this regard, I have repeated a sentence many times: that is, when investors feel that the market is broken, the next trading day has a high probability of reversing the yang line, and when investors feel that the market may accelerate upwards, Leng Buding will change faith with a yin line.
Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were led by real estate, and their upstream and downstream building materials, steel, household goods, household appliances, etc. were linked up and down, and the stock index closed a beautiful Zhongyang line. So I made it clear in yesterday's article: this is either an acceleration signal, or the New Year's Market may have quietly arrived. Unfortunately, many investors have only defined yesterday's rally as an oversold rally.
SSE daily candlestick
The logic is:
1, the change of the real estate sector, suggesting that the market is expected to change the plate, although the future regulation and control probability will not be relaxed, but the most difficult moment or has passed, superimposed that the sector itself is preoccupied, under this and other sides, real estate and its related upstream and downstream or will not be a flash in the pan.
2. Recently, major securities companies have intensively released the 2022 annual strategy report, and the overall tone summarized is still the shock upward, cautiously optimistic.
If the brokerage strategy is most likely correct, then what sectors in the microstructure can stand out?
Personally, I believe that this responsibility is likely to fall on undervalued banks, real estate, traditional industry white horses and industry leaders.
The reason is very simple: although the future prosperity of technology growth is high, but the market to give the valuation is also too full, if more than expected, investors think it should be so; conversely, if the growth rate of these industries declines slightly or retraces, the market will concentrate on selling. More importantly, standing in the present, combined with current and future information, I think the probability of the future exceeding expectations is very small.
Real Estate Sector Index
On the contrary, banks, real estate, securities companies, traditional white horses and other performance certainties are high, the winning rate is larger, the valuation is superior, the probability of this group rising is greater, and the index will not have too bad performance.
Yesterday's rise or just a warm-up, the market or under the leadership of the aforementioned plates, has quietly completed the "inflection point" action.
3, the north of the funds once again backhand rush, following yesterday's net purchase of more than 8 billion, the first hour of today's net purchase of 2.634 billion, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect net purchase of 730 million, Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchase of 1.904 billion.
Northbound funds
4, from the current disk point of view, the Shanghai 11.10 day bottoming up to close the "big long legs" hammer line, yesterday the yang pulled up, the K line combination is obviously the morning star combination, the stage of the bottom features are visible to the naked eye. On the other hand, the K-line combination is 90% similar to the trend on and after August 20 this year, and the market has come out of a better upward trend after 8.20.
From the perspective of the weekly K line, in the past 8 weeks, the Shanghai Composite Index has pulled back from 3730 to 3448, and the phased short-selling power has almost been released, and at the same time, this week is about to close the hammer head line, and its K line entity will have a high probability of completely engulfing the yin K line entity of the previous week, which is also a symptom of the stage bottom.
The daily K line and weekly K line of the ChiNext board are slowly rising along the 10-day moving average and the 5-week moving average, respectively, and the moving average is scattered, the upward slope is about 30 degrees, and there is no acceleration action.
Comprehensive analysis: Wednesday bottomed out, yesterday Changyang confirmed the bottom, today (as of now) a small shock retracement, digestion of short-term profits, the market upward trend is healthy, inflection point or form.
As for the afternoon, considering yesterday's sharp rise and today's Friday special time point, the afternoon market is likely to continue to maintain volatility, but the center of gravity has shifted slightly.
(The article is a traceable investment idea, for reference only)
I am a traceable and minimalist investment practitioner!