"The End of an Era".
At 1:34 a.m. today, in a group of e-commerce practitioners gathered, someone said this.
His emotions originated from the Double 11 War Report. On November 11, 2021, in the war reports released by e-commerce brands, it was more data like "live room viewing times" than sales with bayonet light.
As if in a 100-meter sprint final, the live horn broadcasts the shoe size, hairstyle, and pace of the contestants, without mentioning the results of the dash.
This is especially true of platforms.
2020, 2019, 2018... In the past, when the "Double 11 Carnival" opened, Tmall would be like the Olympic commentators, from the first minute to broadcast the platform sales results in real time, until "we broke 10 billion", "We broke 100 billion", the numbers on the LED screen of the venue sparkled, shining on the endless heads of people in the Alixixi Park, running in the social network.
In previous years, Tmall official micro frequently released the Double 11 war report
This year, from 00:00 on November 11 to 8:00 a.m., Tmall's official Weibo account only sent two lottery messages, and even at noon, even these two Microblogs were actively deleted.
It's hard to see the crowded Ali command in any public channels in previous years, and the big LED screen that has been breaking records seems to have completely disappeared.
This kind of even deliberate avoidance and quietness can be felt unusual by even the most obtuse person. By the way, Ma Yun is in Spain at this time, playing his golf for his birthday, and he can't go to the scene to supervise the battle and cheer up. As a foil convention, this year's Tmall Double Eleven Night Party was jointly organized by Oriental Satellite TV and Zhejiang Satellite TV, and Hunan Satellite TV undertook the task handed over by Pinduoduo.
On the stage last night, the most popular celebrity idols at the moment were still gathered, but due to the requirements of epidemic prevention, the number of on-site audiences was restricted. The stars still sang and danced the stage, but the audience dispersed. It's like a metaphor. In the era of "Double Eleven" fierce cooking oil, the glory of the battle seems to be coming to an end.
Tired. Today's "Double Eleven", which opens with a pre-sale, has been stretched into a 10-day or even 20-day series, but since the day of the pre-sale, there have been incessant sighs coming from all directions.
Although in previous years, there has been this kind of "end of the crossbow", but it has never been as decisive as this year.
In a public account article that was deleted afterwards, "Li Jiaqi killed double 11", the former founder of Afu essential oil, Diaoye, shouted, "After being trained by the anchors in turn, consumers no longer care about the 50% discount!" "The core is the consumer's end, and the 50% off has not quenched the thirst."
Because on weekdays, Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi, Sydney, Simba, Luo Yonghao, Chao Ran, etc. Hundreds of thousands of people, from the head to the middle waist live broadcast room, the five-fold discount is a yarn?! Now the popular is to buy one get eight free, buy one get thirteen free... Seeing your heart beating, the concept of fifty-fold is so unsay, it has long been unable to hook any consumer impulses. ”
The preferential competition between Sydney, Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi live broadcasts may not be unfair to blame all the "causes of death" on Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya. Broadening and lengthening the horizon, there are too many reasons for the "decline" of "Double Eleven".
The changes in the overall economic environment are obviously the underlying reasons. Although the epidemic has greatly accelerated the rise of live e-commerce, the prevention and control that has lasted for nearly two years has indeed put pressure on the development of more industries and the income expectations of more people, and the figures of the National Bureau of Statistics on GDP and total retail sales of social consumer goods have explained everything.
The antipathy to the monopoly of capital and the resistance to consumerism have also affected more and more people.
Their consumption concept is becoming more and more rational, and various promotional routines of "lip service but not reality" are failing at a speed visible to the naked eye. The timely advent of a regulation before the "Double Eleven" has also objectively reduced the promotion performance of Double 11.
On November 1, the personal information protection law was officially implemented, people's privacy data has been more strictly protected, and one result is that the hit rate that originally relied on snooping privacy to "guess what you like" is declining, a well-known information flow advertising service provider told the new list, which directly led to a decline in ROI effects by at least 20%.
The "double eleven" that is being stretched longer and longer, looking back at this moment, is more like a kind of "drinking and quenching thirst".
People's enthusiasm is repeatedly consumed in excessively long foreplay.
As Xiaoma Song said this morning in "The Disappearing Double Eleven", "When the original day's shopping carnival is diluted into ten days, it is like the feeling of a latte mixed with ten glasses of water, dull and tasteless." ”
Consumers are not willing to spend money blindly anymore, and may not be able to spend it; brand merchants are overwhelmed, ROI can not be corrected in any way; the platform is hung above the heavy sword of "anti-monopoly" and "privacy protection", lowering their past publicity.
The "killing" of "Double Eleven" is not like an accident, but more like the inevitable result of pushing the boat along the water.
As a challenger of traditional e-commerce, live e-commerce, interest e-commerce, and content e-commerce still maintain the overall high-speed progress.
This is also the focus of the new list. In fact, today's e-commerce, it can be said that no one does not talk about short video with goods, live streaming with goods, after the evolution of the past two years, this is already the standard.
This year is the highest concentration of live broadcasting platform double 11, Douyin, Kuaishou, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Xiaohongshu, WeChat video number also raised the banner of double eleven for the first time, still maintaining the GMV far ahead of Taobao, and even added a first-level entrance to the homepage of "live broadcasting".
On October 20, Taobao anchors Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi took the lead in opening the super long war of double 11, and in the end, the cumulative number of live broadcasts between the two exceeded 500 million people, and the pre-sale amount of both of them was around 10 billion, #Wei Ya was 2 times faster#, #Watching Li Jiaqi live than exam nervous # and other topics also appeared on Weibo hot search as expected.
On the eve of double 11, as the "millennium old third", Sydney also shouted out the bold words of "did not take the first place, everyone should not praise me" in the program, hoping to establish the status of the head anchor of Taobao through double 11.
Douyin is even more powerful, and there are more anchors who have broken 100 million, including "Qianhui", "Ride a 'Casual' Couple", "Zhu Zixiao", "Mr. Dong Jewelry", "Ma Shuai Return" and so on.
On the one hand, the anchors of the talents and the institutions and merchants behind them still regard the "Double Eleven" as a place where soldiers must compete, on the other hand, they are also caught in the contradiction of traffic and price.
Taobao anchor "Meng Meng Abby" told the new list, "no anchor will give up double 11", but, "in large-scale promotional activities, the advantages of the head anchor will be very obvious, forming a strong sense of oppression for the middle waist anchor".
"The higher the traffic concentration of double 11 anchors, the greater the discount, the more profitable consumers will be, but the enthusiasm of merchants will also decline." In the view of Tong Wei, Luo Yonghao's partner and co-founder of Making a Friend, "this kind of too 0 and 1 will aggravate the contradiction."
As early as the eve of Double 11, Huang He, the founder of Make a Friend, said in an interview that he would not set a special goal for Double 11, because Tao and JD.com would spend a lot of money to do traffic delivery, "We have no traffic available."
The data also proves the common sense of "making a friend".
New list of new jitter data show that last year's double 11 period (October 30 - November 11), Luo Yonghao's "make a friend" Douyin live broadcast room accumulated 360 million with goods, this year, make a friend has begun a 24-hour live broadcast, by Luo Yonghao and young anchors together to take turns live, single sales are basically stable at more than 10 million yuan, the best result is 112 million yuan on October 31, the total amount should be roughly the same as last year.
In addition to the new jitter belt data masters who made a friend last year and forwarded the official micro-forwarding of the live broadcast room, as the brand's self-broadcast service provider on Douyin, DP has also blossomed everywhere in the past year.
With the mission of building new counters for brands in live broadcast rooms, these PDPs have been squeezed by traffic, price and cost, and the complaint of "not making money" has never stopped. The test of "Double Eleven" is even more cruel for them.
A number of DP service providers told the new list that the traffic will be concentrated to the head during the double 11 period, and the promotion cost will grow rapidly, "everyone is competing for traffic, hand-to-hand combat, inevitable."
There are former star players who have left the field. Last year, from October 30 to November 11, as the representative of the merchant's self-broadcast, "Suning Tesco Super Buyer" accumulated nearly 600 million yuan of goods, becoming the overall champion of Douyin's "Double Eleven" live e-commerce.
This year, since October 20, the single-game sales of this live broadcast room have basically stabilized at hundreds of thousands of orders of magnitude, and the best result is 1.0455 million yuan on October 23, which is far from last year. This is related to the departure of star anchor Jia Nailiang, and may also be related to the adjustment of Suning Tesco's live broadcast strategy, obviously, they no longer pursue the "Double Eleven" flashpoint.
In another set of articles aimed at revealing the real living conditions of the new consumer brand "Double Eleven", Yu Xiaoge, who was once a new media big V and now a new brand entrepreneur, also sighed: "In the middle of the night of Double 11, I looked at the background of a brother's TP company, saw a food brand with a unit price of thirty or forty, made a link of 10,000 pieces, brushed more than a thousand orders, and then quickly gave this link down. ”
Yu Xiaoge's comment area is full of confirmators, according to them, "brushing equals death, not brushing is equal to waiting for death."
While the rhythm of "planting grass - gathering momentum - harvesting - breaking orders" has been broken, in order to be able to "convince" the next round of investors, some new consumer brands are collectively falling into the quagmire of vicious brushing orders.
In fact, after experiencing the popularity of the people since last year, new consumer brands began to stall in the middle of this year, looking back at last year's double 11, hundreds of new consumer brands were listed as the top 1 of the subdivision industry, and this year, the new consumer brands that used to shine brightly have disappeared.
Ebang Power in "Plummet! stall! disillusionment! Double 11 "massacre" new consumption" article described that during the double 11 pre-sale period, many categories were still dominated by international brands, not only new consumer brands did not rise but fell, even domestic brands began to decline.
"It's simply a collective 'disillusionment', the new consumer brand 'Great Leap Forward' after the sudden 'stall', most entrepreneurs sit in front of Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi live broadcast room, dreaming of waking up." A brand owner who specializes in new consumption of offline makeup said, "We are all too young, 'too young too simple'".
The "fall" of new consumer brands in Double 11 cannot be hidden, because they dare not fight a price war at this node. Compared with the promotion of sales, the form of new consumer enterprises participating in double 11 is more to launch various new products, such as cross-category, IP joint name, and landing on the anchor live broadcast room.
Or more grasses.
The month before "Double Eleven" was the peak of the year for brand marketing to plant grass.
The content marketing business data of the new list shows that the amount of grass planted through Xiaohongshu and Douyin KOLs\KOC has more than tripled compared with last year.
For these brands that do not blindly pursue the release of satellites on "Double Eleven", they are trying to integrate products and effects in a longer cycle and plant grass minds. The traffic of "Double Eleven" is too expensive and crowded, so it is better to camp and form a village.
Lu Danping, director of Ruan Shi Pearl Live E-commerce Channel, revealed that on the eve of Double 11, a top-stream anchor had issued a cooperation invitation, but the pit fee was doubled than usual, and finally they chose to give up.
In essence, e-commerce festivals are a large-scale traffic aggregation and redistribution, and the head effect is the inevitable of live streaming with goods.
Low-price promotion is almost the biggest magic weapon for double 11 and anchors to attract consumers in the past, and making the cake bigger and attracting new external traffic is the key to maintaining ecological balance.
Big businesses and big anchors eat meat, small businesses and small anchors drink soup, and occasionally lucky ones can soar to the sky. But now, things have changed.
Low-price promotions don't work that well anymore.
For merchants, frequent low prices began to break the original price system, so that some merchants had no money to earn: either directly exited the market; or inferior goods supported the market, and then exited after the word of mouth collapsed.
For consumers, the daily low prices make them begin to desensitize, and finally choose "not to buy equals the biggest offer." ”
Double 11 is not so easy, this is the consensus, double 11 after all lost the merchant / anchor a battle of fame, users stay up late to grab a single sexy.
Perhaps, in a few hours, when the clock on November 11 moves to the last second, Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Kuaishou, and Pinduoduo will still hold a general battle report that surpasses previous years, and the numbers on it will still be able to remain bright and beautiful, maintaining a continuous upward curve.
But "Double Eleven", as a shopping carnival that once contributed to one battle, this day has passed. Traffic, branding and content are looking for new breaking points.