Original Rorschach Junwu sub-plane
Why did His Majesty rebel?
American journalists have recently begun to break the news again.
In a new book, "Peril," published last week, American journalists Bob Woodward and Robert Costa revealed that Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had twice contacted China privately and told the Chinese side that the United States would not attack China.
It is worth mentioning that Bob Woodward was also one of the first two Washington Post reporters to debunk the Watergate scandal.
According to the description in the book, Millie had two phone calls with the Chinese side.
The first call came on October 30, 2020, four days before last year's U.S. election. At that time, Milley judged based on intelligence that the Chinese side thought that the United States would launch an attack, so he contacted the senior Chinese military general by phone.
"I assure you that the U.S. government is stable and everything is fine. We will not launch attacks or take any military action. ...... If we launch an attack, I'll call you in advance. (If there is an attack), it will not be a sudden lightning operation ... If a war or military conflict breaks out between China and the United States, there will be a stage of preparation as in history. ”
▲ Millie
Millikin said by phone that if that were the case, "I would contact you quite often, so now is not one of those moments [in times of conflict]." ”
Millie's second contact with the Chinese side was on January 8, 2021.
Just two days ago, Trump attended a rally in front of the Washington Monument to tell his supporters "Fight, we're going to fight fiercely." If you don't fight fiercely, you'll lose (your) country. ”
On the same day, Trump's die-hard supporters broke into the US Capitol, causing a massive riot.
▲ Trump supporters occupy Congress
Then Millikin dialed the Chinese phone again: "Things may seem unstable, but this is a democratic nature, we are 100% stable." Everything was fine. But democracy is sometimes sloppy. ”
The call lasted a full 45 minutes.
It is difficult to define whether Milly's behavior is out of line, because as early as 1987, Milly's predecessor, William James Crowe Jr., who was also the chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, established a liaison mechanism with the Soviet military in order to prevent an unexpected war, and bypassed Reagan to contact the Soviet Chief of the General Staff Sergei Akhromeyev directly. Since then, successive chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have established similar liaison mechanisms with Chinese and Russian military generals.
But Millie's actions caused a lot of Republican outcry.
In his article, Dreyel, columnist for american magazine "American Conservatives," referred to Milley as "the Chinese man in the Pentagon," "In what country would the top military leader violate the chain of command like this?" ”
Dreier argues that even if Milley thinks Trump will make a crazy move, he should not negotiate with "major foreign adversaries" but should warn Congress and the American people. "I don't care if you hate Trump or not, Millie has to go."
Trump said on September 14 that Millie's private contact with the Chinese side was "treason" and said that he "never thought of attacking China."
This is not the first time that the two people have had a fierce conflict, the Wall Street Journal's senior White House reporter Bend once broke out in the book, when protests broke out in many places in the United States last year, Trump repeatedly proposed to dispatch troops to suppress, but Milley said that he was only an adviser and had no command, but Trump had obviously listened to these reasons enough, and in a meeting, the two people completely broke out.
At that time, Trump shouted at Millie: "I said you TMD to direct!" Millikin immediately roared back, "I can't command!" Hearing this answer, Trump was even angrier: "You TM can't talk to me like this!" ”
A desperate Millie turned to the rest of the room: "Oh my God, this room is full of lawyers, hasn't anyone told him what my legal duties really are?" Finally, then-Attorney General Barr took over: "Mr. President, Millie is right. ”
▲ Trump and Millie
As chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Milley does not have military command, and as the chief military adviser to the President of the United States and the Secretary of Defense, his role is to provide military advice and participate in the formulation of military policy.
At least theoretically.
Because shortly after Milley spoke to the Chinese for the second time, his subordinates handed him a handwritten note: "Speaker Pelosi [of the House] wants to talk to you as soon as possible." Subject: Presidential Handover. Amendment No. 25. ”
▲ Pelosi tore up Trump's State of the Union speech
Under Amendment No. 25, the vice president can impeach the president by submitting written statements to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the speaker of the House of Representatives alleging that the president is unable to discharge the powers and responsibilities of his office.
Although Trump's term has only 12 days left, Pelosi can't wait.
After answering the phone, Pelosi's first question Milley asked was, "What are the means to prevent an unstable president from getting a launch code or launching a nuclear strike?" ”
Note that here is the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the Joint Chiefs of Staff discussing the deprivation of the President of the United States of the right to launch nuclear weapons.
In response to Pelosi's questions, Milley said that although he did not have direct authority, "we have many procedures and precautions" to prevent "the illegal and immoral use of force."
Apparently, the procedure in Millie's mouth did not satisfy Pelosi, and she clearly wanted more specific and rapid measures, "What are you going to do?" What about taking the soccer ball (the nuclear suitcase) away from him? ”
To be honest, this face is beyond my imagination, is it necessary for senior American generals to stand in front of Trump and say, "Mr. President, please hand over the nuclear suitcase in your hand, otherwise you will bear the consequences"?
After repeatedly placating Pelosi and giving assurances, Millie summoned senior officials from the National Military Command Center (NMCC) and said that only the President of the United States can order the launch of a nuclear weapon, but no matter who you receive the order, I am part of the process. And not just nuclear weapons launches, all military operations must be approved by Milley.
In the eyes of some people, What Millie is doing is responsible for the country, Biden said at a press conference on the 15th that he has "great confidence" in Millie; White House spokesman Psaki also responded at the briefing on the same day, "The president has full confidence in Milley's leadership, patriotism and loyalty to the Constitution." ”
But some people have a different view.
Wipin Nalang, an expert on nuclear policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that by definition, Milley's adoption of any kind of "security measure" to stop Trump's launch of a nuclear weapon is in fact a "coup."
Trump has the right to launch nuclear weapons — whether Pelosi likes it or not
"As long as Trump is in office, he has the right to launch some or all of America's nuclear weapons until 12:01 p.m. on Jan. 20, or he's removed from office," Nalang said in an interview. "Any 'security measure' that prevents the president's sole powers from exercising is either illegal or an illusion."
Of course, there is a more essential question here, whether Millie's worries are superfluous, and does the president of the United States have the power to launch military action or even war?
This problem was a mess from the start.
Article 1, Paragraph 8 of the U.S. Constitution provides that Congress has the power to declare war. However, the second paragraph of Article II of the United States Constitution states: "The President is the commander-in-chief of the United States Army, Navy, and state militias conscripted into service with the United States." So since the founding of the United States, the White House and Capitol Hill have been engaged in a protracted struggle over the right to wage war.
And the president of the United States is often in an advantageous position in this struggle. Of the countless wars waged by the United States, congress declared war only five times: the American-British War of 1812, the Mexican-American War of 1846, the Spanish-American (Spanish) War of 1898, the intervention in World War I in 1917, and the participation in World War II in 1941. Congress did not declare war once after World War II.
After the beginning of the Cold War, the power of the U.S. executive branch gradually expanded, followed by a rapid expansion of presidential power.
Neither Truman's involvement in the Korean War nor Johnson's involvement in the Vietnam War went through the U.S. Congress, but the president acted directly.
Because the United States fell into the quagmire of the Vietnam War and suffered heavy losses and domestic anti-war sentiment was high, Congress finally took the lead in 1973 and passed a "war power resolution" that limited the power of the president, stipulating that the president must notify Congress before starting a war, the president must notify Congress within 48 hours before sending troops, and military operations that have not been authorized by Congress or declared war cannot stay in the local area for more than 60 days and withdraw within 30 days after expiration.
However, the "war power resolution" did not play much role in restricting the president from waging war, whether it was bombing Libya, invading Panama or launching the Gulf War, it was directly sent to the army without the participation of Congress, and as long as these actions were effective, the president only needed to inform Congress afterwards.
▲Gulf War
After all, even jacob, the main initiator and drafter of the resolution. K. Javits said, "Congress has no intention of undermining the president's ability to protect the United States from foreign attacks."
After 9/11, presidential power, which had not been effectively limited, was further strengthened. At that time, both houses of Congress overwhelmingly passed George W. Bush's resolution on the use of foreign troops, the "Authorization Act on the Use of Military Force," which authorized the president to use all necessary and appropriate forces to strike against countries, organizations, and individuals that were related to the attack or that might be planning a new attack.
On March 5, 2021, the White House issued a statement saying Biden would work with Congress to seek to repeal the Authorization Act on the Use of Military Force, passed in 2001. The White House said Biden wanted to negotiate with Congress to draft new bills that would create a "narrower and clearer framework" to limit the extent to which the United States is involved in military conflicts overseas.
The problem is that biden ordered airstrikes against Syria in February, again without congressional approval.
▲ U.S. air strikes on Syria
It can be said that although the right to declare war under the Constitution belongs to Congress, whether it is a large-scale war or a small-scale war, the initiative is in the hands of the President of the United States.
While this does not mean that the president can launch attacks on countries at the level of the five permanents at will, because this requires a very large public opinion base and pre-war mobilization, the president of the United States does have a very generous space for free action.
In this respect, Millikin and Pelosi's fears are not empty. But if Trump is not in the final days of his term, their actions will not theoretically limit Trump's exercise of his power, at least you can't silence the president and wantonly destroy the country's power structure just because of party strife.
If they could, the question might be even bigger – who in the United States would decide?