It was so exciting, and when others were afraid, I was greedy

Hello everyone, I'm Ye Qiu.

I have to complain that yesterday's dry goods article reading volume actually hit a new low, but in the snowball, it directly pushed on today's topic.

Sure enough, most people just want to copy homework and don't want to spend time learning and improving, but can this continue to make money?

Personally, I have great doubts, please copy homework and continue to make money friends to leave a message to say.

Well, without further ado, let's get down to business.

Today is another exciting day, PPI data is more ugly, the morning opening is all the way low, the three major indexes once fell nearly 2%.

Northbound funds are also crazy outflows, many stocks are also falling to the ground, such a big tragedy I don't know how many people are scared to pee and cut meat.

Taking advantage of the sharp decline, I can't help but bottom out pharmaceutical stocks and part of the real estate industry chain today

Contrarian investing is difficult, especially when it is down, ghost stories are the most, there will be various voices with strict data and logic to persuade you not to buy; plus human nature is inherently afraid of uncertainty and anti-public.

Darkest

moment

Pharmaceutical stocks and the real estate industry chain are both policy-sensitive industries, and since this year, everyone has been saying that the three mountains of "education, medical care, and real estate" should all be beaten down.

But to be honest, it is still necessary to distinguish between education and education, education has not fallen, what has fallen is the education and training of private construction anxiety.

In the same way, the just demand for real estate and the innovation of medicine will not fall, real estate should eliminate excessive financial attributes, and pharmaceutical collection should suppress corruption and pseudo-innovation resource internal consumption.

The people's demand for good housing and longevity has not changed, but it is clear that the real estate industry chain and pharmaceutical stocks have basically reached the darkest moment.

Pharmaceuticals are suppressed by collective procurement, and policy expectations are very pessimistic, even if there is a performance and valuation, it is a one-way decline.

The real estate industry chain is affected by deleveraging, the head housing enterprises have a cash flow crisis, the entire industrial chain is at risk, and accounts receivable have become a time bomb.

The industry is always born in despair, and the most dangerous time is the safest, because the turnaround can happen at any time.

Turn

Here it comes

To be honest, there have been several incidents of excessive force at the top this year, which is the pain of the transition period, but fortunately, every time it can be corrected in time and get back on track, such as the energy consumption double core of the last time, this time real estate and medicine are no exception.

Take pharmaceutical policy, for example, the turnaround has quietly occurred:

a. Introduce high-quality development policies for APIs,

b. Medicare negotiated PD1 prices are significantly better than expected;

c. The third phase of the clinical phase of the mRNA enhancement needle was approved;

These three industries correspond to APIs, innovative drugs, and biological products, and it is clear that the attitude of the top level to medicine is not directly erased like education and training, but to encourage medicine to take the road of high-quality development and innovation, which is far better than the pessimistic expectations of the current market.

On the other hand, the financing and cash flow problems of real estate have also turned around:

a. The regulator noted the problem and held a symposium on real estate enterprises in Shenzhen;

b. Some housing enterprises plan to issue bonds in the interbank market in the near future;

c. The collective surge in real estate stocks and dollar bonds is the best evidence.

In short, the most dangerous time for pharmaceutical stocks has passed, this week is the medical insurance negotiation week, the negotiation results are significantly better than expected, referring to last year's medical insurance negotiations after the policy vacuum period, pharmaceutical stocks will most likely have a wave of valuation repair market.

I will not touch the real estate stocks, but the real estate industry chain can still be engaged, not only to B attributes, but also to C attributes, and the logic of industry concentration is tested by time.

Now that the real estate policy correction has come, the darkest hour has passed, and the post-cyclical stocks implicated in real estate will usher in a wave of violent rebound.

Based on the above logic, today I can't help but bottom out some of the pharmaceutical stocks and real estate industry chain stocks with reasonable valuations, and whether it is a mule or a horse to be verified next.

Churchill once said, don't waste a good crisis! Every crisis hides opportunities! Even the greater the crisis, the greater the opportunity!

Special note: The above content is only personal investment thinking and record, and does not constitute investment advice.