On February 5, local time, the US State Department announced that it would remove the Houthi armed forces in Yemen from its list of "foreign terrorist organizations", which caused widespread concern.
This clearly foreshadows the differences in the Middle East policy of the Biden administration and the Trump administration.
Only stayed on the list for half a month
In the generally rich Arabian Peninsula, Yemen is a relatively poor country.
Historically, North and South Yemen have been divided for a long time, and after World War II, they have also established independent states and been recognized by the United Nations.
Among them, North Yemen has long been ruled by Saleh and pursues a pro-Saudi, pro-American line; South Yemen was first pro-Nasser regime in Egypt, and later became a vassal of the Soviet Union.
After the end of the Cold War, South Yemen lost its patron and was forced to merge with North Yemen in 1990.
After the merger, there were sharp contradictions between the former North and South Yemen, between Sunni and Shiites in Yemen, and between the various tribes.
The Shiite and Sunni populations are 5.5 to 4.5, but the leader of yemen for a long time, Saleh himself, is a Shiite but has long maintained a fragile balance with Sunni Saudi Arabia as a backer.
The Arab Spring led to unrest in many Arab countries, and the Saleh regime in Yemen collapsed in late 2011.
The Shiite Houthi rebels, who were originally anti-Saleh allies, and former Sunni Vice President Hadi turned against each other, and a new civil war broke out in September 2014.
The Houthis, with the support of Iran, expelled Hadi from the capital, Sana'a, while the "legitimate president" Hadi, who fled to the south, asked Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council to send troops to help.
On March 26, 2015, Saudi Arabia organized a coalition of eleven nations (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Egypt, Senegal, Colombia, Pakistan, Qatar, Sudan withdrew, and Pakistan did not participate in the initial stage) armed intervention in the Yemeni civil war, resulting in the disaster of war in Yemen that continues to this day.
Despite the intervention of the United States and Saudi Arabia and other countries, the United Nations and the vast majority of countries in the world still recognize the Hadi government as the "only legitimate government of Yemen"; despite the armed intervention of Saudi Arabia and other countries, the houthi armed forces have so far controlled about 70% of Yemen's territory and about 80% of the population, and control most of the central and northern ports.
Yemen's Houthi armed forces were "overtime" on the list of "foreign terrorist organizations" (TTOs) by former Secretary of State Pompeo, the head of the U.S. State Department, on the evening of January 19 this year, just 11 hours before the transition of the Trump administration and the Biden administration.
Although the Trump administration has long sided with Saudi Arabia in suppressing the Houthis, they remained more measured until their defeat on November 3, 2020.
But after that, Trump and Pompeo began to "press the clock and add weight": on the last day of their term, they not only approved the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates, an important external intervener in Yemen's civil war (an hour before Biden's inauguration), but also conveniently stuffed the Houthis into the FTO.
After taking office, Biden is trying to "lock" Trump's "open lock" in Yemen.
On January 24, it was reported that the US F-35 arms sales to the United Arab Emirates had been canceled; on February 4, Biden announced in his first foreign policy speech since taking office that the United States would no longer support the Saudi coalition military operation in Yemen; just one day later, US State Department spokesman Price announced the decision to withdraw the Houthis from the FTO, so that the Houthis had only been in the FTO for half a month.
International pressure and partisan struggles are needed
As early as Trump and Pompeo threatened to beat the Houthis into the FTO, the international community expressed strong dissatisfaction.
Many international organizations have pointed out that as a result of the civil war, Yemen relies on imports for 90 per cent of its food and 80 per cent of its population depends on foreign aid for its livelihoods.
According to the United Nations, 16 million Yemenis will go hungry in 2021, with another 5 million on the brink of starvation.
Because the Houthis control most ports, food merchants, bankers, shippers and other related agencies stop dealing with Yemeni food importers for fear of U.S. sanctions once the group is included in the FTO.
Although Pompeo has said that "purely humanitarian food shipments will not be prevented", many experts have pointed out that such exemptions are just a drop in the bucket and will inevitably have serious consequences.
U.N. spokesman Duharik noted that the inclusion of the Houthis in the FTO "has a negative impact that is irreparable from the efforts of all humanitarian organizations."
Norwegian Refugee Council Secretary-General Egeland criticized Trump and Pompeo's approach as "reckless and destructive" and would create "the most horrific famine and humanitarian catastrophe in a generation," said Abdi, the group's Yemen chief, saying the move would "limit the ability of aid agencies to respond to an already dire situation."
Former British Foreign Minister Miliband, CEO of the International Rescue Committee (IRC), called the move a "pure diplomatic nuisance".
Many point out that Trump and Pompeo's last-minute actions are themselves political manipulations aimed at giving their successors a conundrum.
In fact, this practice will not further suppress the Houthis – Houthi leaders have no assets to freeze overseas, but will drive fish and birds for the bushes.
As Gulf analyst Eliani et al. put it, "the Houthis can rightly claim that the suffering of the People of Yemen is the result of a 'conspiracy by the United States and its proxies.'"
A bigger game of chess
Obviously, whether from the perspective of alleviating international pressure or from the need of partisan struggle, the Biden administration must untie this "Yemeni knot" as soon as possible.
This includes, but is far from limited to, the category of "punching Trump in the face." Because of this, although some analysts previously thought that Biden would not change course soon, it turned out that as long as it was urgently needed, it was not difficult.
Many observers believe that the removal of the Houthis from the FTO may be part of Biden's "bigger game" in the Middle East.
Biden has appointed Randkin as special envoy for Yemen's peace talks, suggesting that the United States intends to mediate between the two factions of Yemen's civil war, rather than continuing the approach of Trump and Pompeo.
The Houthis are Shiite, and the branches of international terrorism that have been rampant in Yemen belong basically to the Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) factions, and belong to the Sunni Wahhabis.
Trump does not know that such accusations may not be valid, but since the Trump administration has set the tone of the US Middle East policy as "United Saudi Arabia (Special) Governance of Iran (Lang)", it is bound to support Saudi Arabia and oppose Iran.
In his first foreign affairs speech on Feb. 4, Biden said nothing about Iran, and it is clear from his words and deeds that he has no interest in continuing to treat Iran as america's number one imaginary enemy in the Middle East, in which case it would be unnecessary to risk continuing to support Saudi Arabia unconditionally.
Of course, the Biden team is still accusing the Houthis of "human rights violations," but they have also begun to whisper accusations against the Saudi side for the same behavior.
The Biden administration is also referring to the Trump-era "unscathed" U.S.-Israel-Saudi "iron triangle," but has made it clear that it "will not go to the forefront of securing this relationship," such as providing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with arms that could be used to bomb civilian targets in Yemen.
In this regard, The Houthi officials, who have always spared words like gold, also expressed "cautious optimism", but this "optimism" can only be "cautious".
Hatred and distrust between the two sides of Yemen's civil war have piled up, and the Biden administration clearly does not want to make a bigger difference in the Middle East. In this case, I am afraid that what can be changed is only a slight improvement in Yemen's much-needed food supply.
Tao Short Room (Columnist)
Editor: Chen Jing Intern: Pan Yujie Proofreader: Wang Xin