Original I am Ivan the Great
According to the Global Network, at noon local time on November 2, the Sardar Mohammed Daoud Khan Military Hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan, was attacked by the terrorist organization ISKP. It is reported that the ISKP dispatched a total of five terrorists, including four gunmen and a suicide attacker. The attack was carried out by "human bombs" first detonating bombs at the entrance of the hospital, causing great confusion, and then four gunmen rushed into the hospital to carry out indiscriminate strafing, and shot at people when they saw them. The attack allegedly killed at least 19 people, injured more than 50 others and killed all terrorists by the Taliban.
So, how should we evaluate this terrorist attack launched by the ISKP and the response of the Taliban Interim Government to this attack from the perspective of pure military and social "surface" control? Ivan the Great believes that from the perspective of the ISKP's means of action, there is no progress, which can basically be counted as a "replica" of the ISKP's terrorist attack on the same hospital in March 2017;
Judging from the actions of the Afghan Taliban, it is much faster than the response speed of the Ghani government forces, and even engaged in some remarkable operations, showing the social management ability of the Afghan Taliban from the side.
Details of the terrorist attack
In fact, as early as the morning of March 8, 2017, ISKP had already launched a terrorist attack on the Daoud Khan military hospital, and the attack method was the same, even more brutal:
In terms of the number of terrorists, the number of people involved in the two attacks is not much, in 2017, After interviewing different witnesses, Reuters believed that the ISKP had dispatched a total of 1 suicide bomber and 3 gunmen; in 2021, from the number of people killed by the Taliban, there was only 1 suicide bomber and 5 gunmen, and the target was very small and difficult to find.
The back wall of the hospital was blasted open by explosions in 2017
In terms of the "task distribution" of these terrorists, the attack pattern of the two suicide attacks is also highly similar:
In the 2017 attack, THEKP chose to blast the back wall of the hospital and then enter the hospital for a gun battle; in the 2021 attack, the suicide bomber chose to detonate the "human bomb" directly at the entrance of the hospital. According to some witnesses, when the bombs were detonated and caused chaos, several ISKP gunmen in the second echelon entered together among the rescuers, using automatic rifles, light machine guns and grenades to carry out massacres, and even witnesses claimed to Reuters that some ISKP terrorists also "changed into the doctor's white coat" and tricked the patients out of bed and shot them.
IsKP's subsequent reconnaissance photos show that before the attack, there were several Taliban armed guards standing guard at the entrance of the hospital. (Source: Sham Lion _EL)
Overall evaluation, ISKP's attack methods, quite inhumane, quite no lower limit, but also look at the vast majority of countries in the social control of some defects, look at the majority of people in the human nature and habits of some weaknesses, otherwise it will not be "repeatedly successful".
Taliban coping strategies
Judging from the Afghan Taliban's response to the ISKP terrorist attack, Ivan the Great believes that it is better than the former Afghan government army.
Let's start with the attack launched by the ISKP on the morning of March 8, 2017. After the attack, the Afghan government army security forces quickly arrived at the scene, but in the face of the ISKP terrorists who were wantonly slaughtering people in the building, none of the Afghan security forces dared to enter the building, but only blocked the intersection around the hospital, and then sat and waited for the Afghan government army special forces to come and deal with it.
After the Afghan government army special forces arrived late, I don't know whether it was because there was no helicopter, or simply afraid to participate in the war, grinding outside the building for an hour, until the helicopter came, it is said that there are foreign special forces to come to help the war, the Afghan government army special forces landed on the roof of the hospital by airborne, and then began to surround and suppress terrorists layer by floor. The slowness and sluggishness of the response, which allowed three ISKP gunmen to wreak havoc in the Daoud Khan military hospital from morning to noon, took more than six hours to be killed, which led to the 2017 terrorist attack, which according to Reuters' post-mortem investigation, may have killed as many as hundreds of casualties.
The wounded were taken to an ambulance
In contrast, the Afghan Taliban have done at least a few things in place in the terrorist attack on the Military Hospital of Daoud Khan:
First, the patrol reacted quickly, and after the iskP's first suicide attacker detonated the bomb at the front door, the Afghan Taliban guards stationed around the hospital and the patrol patrolling nearby arrived at the scene in about ten minutes. After arriving at the scene, the Afghan Taliban immediately engaged in an exchange of fire with the ISKP's gunmen, effectively interfering with the ISKP's massacre in the hospital and minimizing the casualties of the terrorist attack as much as possible.
It is said that the Afghan Taliban guard unit on duty nearby that day was personally led by Mura Ahmed, commander of the Afghan Taliban "Capital Army", and after the attack, Ahmed also rushed to the scene and commanded the Taliban forces to encircle and suppress the ISKP terrorists. However, in the ensuing exchange of fire, Ahmed was unfortunately killed by an ISKP bullet, and there was also news that the commander of the "Badri 313 Combat Battalion" of the Afghan Taliban special forces was also killed in the exchange of fire (unconfirmed, possibly false news). From here, we can see that the Afghan Taliban seems to implement the principle of "commanding from the front" well, and with senior commanders present, it is more convenient for the Afghan Taliban of different combat units to concentrate on the offensive, but this "front" is inevitably too far ahead.
After the terrorist attack, the Afghan Taliban guards and patrols who rushed to the scene were only the first echelon, and the second echelon was said to be the special forces of the Afghan Taliban "Badri 313 Combat Battalion" located at Kabul airport and in standby. Judging from the released video, the "Badri 313 Combat Battalion" took off directly from the airport in a Mi-17 transport helicopter after receiving the order, carried out airborne operations on the roof of the Daoud Khan Military Hospital, and then began to clear the ISKP terrorists layer by layer. These Afghan Taliban special forces reacted extremely quickly, acted decisively, equipped more professionally, and had a clear and eye-catching tactic; after arriving at the scene, they eliminated all the terrorists in less than half an hour.
Overall, the Afghan Taliban performed relatively well militarily in the ISKP attack on the Daud Khan military hospital, with a rapid response of the troops, the commander able to command from the front, and the dispatch of air assault infantry to participate in the clearance operation, which calmed the incident in less than an hour and minimized the losses of the attack.
At the same time, the political factors behind the purely military factors are also worthy of our further affirmation:
For example, the Afghan Taliban's guard units and patrol units can arrive at the scene in a very short time, which means that the Afghan Taliban have done a good job in social control and can scatter a large number of combat troops to patrol;
For example, the rather professional airborne and clearance operations of the Afghan Taliban Special Forces mean that the Afghan Taliban have made certain progress in the professionalization and regularization of military forces, which is worthy of our affirmation to a certain extent.
The Taliban government faces challenges
But, as the saying goes, "tactical superiority does not change strategic disadvantage", although the Afghan Taliban have responded well to the recent ISKP terrorist attacks, each time clearing out a group of ISKP terrorists, and it is said that after the Daoud Khan hospital attack, the Afghan Taliban captured two more ISKPs in Kabul from a Central Asian country.
Afghan Taliban security services arrested two foreign members of the extremist group ISKP in Kabul. (Source: Sham Lion _EL)
However, the current political and economic situation in Afghanistan is still not optimistic overall:
Acting Deputy Prime Minister Hanafi and other interim government officials held a simple ribbon-cutting ceremony at Kabul Airport, and Chinese Ambassador to Afghanistan Wang Yu also participated in the send-off and jointly opened the "Pine Nuts Air Corridor".
In terms of economic situation, after entering Kabul, the Afghan Taliban basically received a "mess", with an extremely low level of domestic productivity, foreign trade being better than nothing, and domestic finances dependent on charity from Western countries. Although the Afghan Taliban has begun to make efforts, such as the recent export of "Brazilian pine nuts" to China, and the restoration of border trade relations with Pakistan, Iran and other countries, it is still very far from a comprehensive economic recovery. Not to mention, the urgent problem facing the Afghan Taliban is that winter is approaching, and the domestic grain and warm clothing reserves in Afghanistan are insufficient, and the foreign exchange reserves have basically been rolled up by the senior officials of the Ghani government.
In terms of the political situation, the most urgent problem facing the Afghan Taliban after entering Kabul is how to transform from "destroyers of order" to "builders of order". Political maturity and military regularization are only one of the contents, and the Afghan Taliban have indeed done some work at present, but there is still a certain gap from the expectations of neighboring countries.
In Khost province in eastern Afghanistan, some officers and men of the former government army returned to work at the request of the Afghan Taliban. (Source: Sham Lion _EL)
Not to mention, the economic dilemma will constrain the political construction of the Afghan Taliban to a greater extent, most typically, it is said that in the recent operation to eliminate the ISKP in Kunduz, the Afghan Taliban has discovered that former Afghan Government Army Special Forces soldiers have joined the ISKP, while the southern Afghan Taliban have begun to mobilize former Afghan Government Army soldiers to "come out to work". This means that the Afghan Taliban have realized that if these people with military skills are allowed to mingle in the civilian sector and the economic situation is generally unfavorable, these former government veterans joining the ISKP is only a matter of thought.
However, if the economic situation continues to be unfavorable, even if the Afghan Taliban has more appeal, it is estimated that more Afghans will not be able to join the ISKP with international support and even financial assistance from Western countries. At that time, I am afraid that there will be an embarrassing "offensive and defensive translocation", the ISKP occupies the ecological niche of the Taliban in previous years, and the Taliban is thrown to the ecological niche of the Ghani government, which means that for the Afghan people, history has begun a new cycle, and ordinary Afghans are afraid that they will really suffer the second stubble.
After the hospital attack, a woman waited outside the hospital for news about her brother. (Source: Sham Lion _EL)
Therefore, Ivan the Great believes that the most pressing issues for the Afghan Taliban at present are as follows:
The first is to quickly establish a relatively reliable border defense force, especially the northern border line, which has always been the "hardest hit area" of the ISKP infiltrating into Afghanistan to the south, and must be strictly guarded;
The second is to quickly complete the regularization of the troops, at least buy some cheap uniforms and equipment, so that everyone does not wear Afghan robes, and it is not clear who is who;
The third is to do everything possible to pull international aid, funds, food, and clothing, and then implement "work for relief" at home, and first spend the winter of 2021.
Somewhere in Afghanistan, a child sitting on the side of the road writing homework. (Source: Sham Lion _EL)
All in all, Ivan the Great still says: I hope the Afghan people have good luck, and I hope that the Afghan Taliban will go on the road a little more, after all, now the Taliban is not the lord who can go with the wind and waves, and it really has the Afghan people on its shoulders.