蘋果微軟成為最大空頭标的，新三巨頭正在崛起

2024年伊始，科技股在經曆了短暫低迷後重新起步。然而，市場的分歧也在加大。

S3 Partners的資料顯示， 市值最大的蘋果和微軟成為美股市場空頭頭寸最高的個股。相比之下，英偉達、Meta和AMD新三巨頭正在迎頭趕上，成為市場最大寵兒，并貢獻了年初以來标普500指數漲幅的近七成。未來科技股将是老牌明星企業唱主角，還是新三足鼎立的格局将成為一大看點。

蘋果微軟各有隐憂

根據S3 Partners董事總經理杜薩尼烏斯基（Ihor Dusaniwsky）給出的分項資料，今年前兩周，蘋果和微軟的市場空頭規模約為186.3億美元和186.1億美元，處于全市場前兩位，而面臨降價等因素沖擊的特斯拉從第一降至第三。

對蘋果的悲觀立場可能反映了基本面的疲軟。iPhone的需求，尤其是在關鍵的亞太市場放緩背景下，這家科技巨頭尚未找到新的業績增長點。鑒于混合現實頭顯Vision Pro的嘗試，一些機構對前兩年的普及率預測持謹慎的觀點。

Piper Sandler分析師庫瑪爾（Harsh Kumar）年初将蘋果評級從增持下調至中性，理由是擔心估值以及智能手機市場的壓力。庫馬爾表示，他對今年上半年的手機庫存感到擔憂，同時預測手機銷量的增長率已達到峰值。此外，圍繞Apple Watch的法律陰雲可能會分散投資者的注意力。

1月15日，蘋果中國官網上線“迎新春限時優惠”。此次優惠政策幾乎覆寫蘋果全系産品，最高可降價800元。 其中，iPhone 15系列所有機型、iPhone 14、iPhone 14 Plus或iPhone 13最高可降價500元。這也部分印證了此前富士康疲軟的業績指引。這家蘋果供應商兼iPhone主要組裝商去年四季度總營收下降5.4%。公司将營收下滑歸因于智能消費電子産品以及雲和網絡産品的銷售疲軟或持平，同時2024年第一季度的銷售額将繼續同比下降。

上周Redburn分析師将蘋果評級下調至中性，目标價200美元，這是今年以來蘋果公司評級第三次遭到下調。然而新的挑戰即将到來。報道稱，美國司法部正準備提起反壟斷訴訟，最快可能于今年3月。該機構的訴訟可能針對AppleWatch如何與iPhone獨家合作，以及iMessage服務。如果這起訴訟獲得通過，将是蘋果多年來最大的反壟斷風險。

微軟上周超越蘋果成為市值第一，人工智能業務成為了新發力點。在過去的幾年裡，微軟已經向OpenAI投入了超過100億美元，正在将OpenAI的服務整合到其核心業務中，包括必應搜尋引擎。

然而“美股一哥”的麻煩也可能來自于反壟斷和監管方面的限制。據報道，美國司法部和美國聯邦貿易委員會（FTC）正在深入讨論以反壟斷為由調查OpenAI，包括其與微軟的關系。知情人士稱，這兩個機構都不準備放棄管轄權。

在剛剛舉行的達沃斯世界經濟論壇上，OpenAI首席執行官奧爾特曼（Sam Altman）、微軟首席執行官納德拉（Satya Nadella）關于AI行業未來趨勢的讨論與觀點引發熱議。聯合國秘書長古特雷斯批評大型科技公司正在不顧一切地從AI中追求利潤，需要采取緊急行動，減輕這一快速增長行業帶來的風險。他認為,各國政府和聯合國等國際機構需要發揮作用，確定AI成為一股積極的力量。

達沃斯論壇釋出的一份報告顯示，AI驅動的錯誤資訊和虛假資訊是全球經濟面臨的最大風險。全世界都在努力監管AI，這項技術對工作場所、選舉和隐私都有重大影響。

新三巨頭快速崛起

費城半導體指數周一重新整理曆史新高。上周台積電釋出樂觀業績指引，由于人工智能應用中使用的高端晶片需求旺盛，2024年的收入增長将超過20%。

剛過去的CES電子展也展現了晶片行業的迅猛發展。值得注意的是，根據統計，今年以來标普500指數的漲幅中，大部分可歸因于三隻股票：英偉達、Meta和AMD，貢獻了超過60%。

人工智能熱潮領軍者英偉達股價疊創新高，盤中突破600美元，今年累計漲幅已超20%，市值接近1.5萬億美元。OANDA進階市場分析師厄拉姆（Craig Erlam）在接受第一财經記者采訪時表示，越來越多的企業可以依靠新技術來保持低成本和提高生産力，進而在這一過程中提高利潤率。 “在更廣泛地采用雲計算和人工智能的幫助下，無論今年的利率如何，科技公司仍然可以取得成果。”他說。

Banrion Capital Management 首席執行官西塞爾（Shana Sissel）認為，英偉達是最優秀的投資标的，“公司在GPU市場上占據主導地位，擁有強大的客戶關系，并正在快速增長——很難在這個炒作主題中找到太多漏洞。”

AMD近日釋出了全新的MI300系列AI晶片，試圖挑戰英偉達在人工智能晶片領域的霸主地位。公司已經拿到了微軟、甲骨文、Meta的訂單。巴克萊此前将AMD股價目标價從120美元大幅上調至200美元，預計其今年在AI晶片銷售上将實作40億美元的業績。

Meta近一年已經上漲了超過200%，除了通過削減成本的一系列措施提振業績以外，Facebook母公司在人工智能業務上也在努力突破。Meta CEO紮克伯格在社交媒體平台發文稱， 正在加強人工智能研究團隊的力量，并在充實AI基礎設施“彈藥庫”，計劃在年底前向晶片設計商英偉達購買35萬個H100 GPU晶片，進而使公司的GPU總量達到約60萬個，跻身全球最強大的AI系統之列。

厄拉姆向第一财經表示，半導體闆塊的強勢源于業績的支援。從業績預測看，通信服務、科技等闆塊一季度的收入和盈利增長将遠好于市場平均水準，這種勢頭一直有可能持續整個2024年。

不過投資者依然需要注意短期漲幅釋放後的調整風險。Seeking Alpha發現，英偉達市場交投表現出較明顯的伽馬擠壓（Gamma Squeeze）的迹象，認沽與認購比率處于曆史區間的低端，隐含波動率上升并向認購側傾斜。“伽馬擠壓”是一種自我強化的行為，投資者買斷看漲期權，這導緻做市商通過購買股票來對沖标的股票，進而推高股票。

雖然這可以被視為牛市的催化劑，但也可以在過度投機下引發波動，因為通常情況下，一旦看漲期權隐含的波動率過高，“伽馬擠壓”的過程就會耗盡，進而導緻股票大幅下跌。

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.1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}