抖音悄然躍入放貸第一陣營，近4000億天量直逼螞蟻

文  周天

周天财經 原創出品

在被大家遺忘的角落，現金貸仍在生長，且燃燒得更旺，這一波引領網絡放貸的主角是一個令所有人都倍感驚奇的角色：位元組跳動。

我也好奇，一個用來看短視訊的平台怎麼就成了放貸巨頭？

關注到這個水面下的話題，最開始是因為看到一則報道，據《21 世紀經濟報道》：

一家大型網際網路直播平台一面從事助貸，一面也基于自身網際網路小貸牌照，自營消費貸業務。憑借龐大流量，其在貸餘額規模迅速擴張至約8000億元。金融監管部門已對此密切關注，并要求該網際網路直播平台适度壓縮在貸餘額規模。

多方打聽得知，在21世紀這篇文章中含蓄點到的8000億餘額巨頭，就是抖音。不過，8000億的在貸餘額，大大超出市場預期，略顯誇張。

循着這條線索，我在業内多方求證，大體獲知：在2023年底前後，抖音等位元組系公司的放貸餘額至少已經突破了三千億，或許就在撰寫本文的最近一段時間，餘額正在逼近4000億，也就是在大約一年前，抖音放貸餘額僅百億左右的規模。

即使隻是3000多億，也讓多位業界人士普遍深感震撼：「這個增速太恐怖了，隻用一年就幹出來 1.5 個度小滿。」

據業内人士估算，按照2023年的驚人增速，即便是2024年增速大幅回落，以抖音為主的位元組系，放貸餘額達到一萬億并不誇張。萬億，是螞蟻集團一度達到過的高峰。

要了解抖音目前在現金貸的行業地位，不妨拿目前的現金貸領頭羊企業來進行比較：

度小滿，由李彥宏的百度孕育而出，放貸餘額在2300億，已經在現金貸行業遙遙領先了，且度小滿在投放上，是公認的兇猛和大手筆，比如在機場和各類熱門綜藝節目中，度小滿都是廣告贊助的大金主。

僅次于度小滿的，是360借條，主體是奇富科技和360小貸，實控人就是最近剛給杭州網紅上了人生一課的周鴻祎，财報顯示，360借條的餘額是1891億元。周鴻祎教年輕人演講不收學費，但老周借錢給年輕人，是要算利息的。

也就是說，抖音隻用了一年時間，就超過了現金貸行業數一數二的兩大高手，幾乎達到度小滿+360借條放貸量之和。着實給金融行業帶來了一些小小的位元組震撼。

位元組善于跨界擴張，吞并老牌巨頭的地盤，以飽和攻擊、快速放量為特點，而2023年，又一次在放貸領域，激進all in，重演了自己屢試不爽的拿手好戲。

還是熟悉的劇本，還是熟悉的味道。從遊戲、VR 收縮撤退的位元組，實則在另一個角落隐秘擴張。

就這樣，悄無聲息，在一個我們看不見的下沉放貸市場，隻用一年多時間，抖音就猛然發育成為市場數一數二的巨頭，複刻了當年支付寶母公司螞蟻金服的花呗借呗的高光時刻。

餘額其實是一個窄口徑，計算的是以某個時刻作為橫截面，有多少貸款正停留在使用者的錢包裡，尚未歸還給位元組的存量。由于很多使用者會多次借款，如果按照GMV算，其信貸規模就更大了。

抖音放貸的前端産品是放心借和抖音月付，而背後用的是一張小貸牌照，這家小貸公司由位元組跳動實控，最近的12月29日剛從90億資本金增資到了190億。對比來看，目前騰訊旗下的财付通小貸的資本金為105億元，微信分付也在逐漸放量，在抖音優秀業績的刺激下，微信分付應該不會坐視市場被抖音獨享，2024年可能會有更大動作。

聊到這裡，大家肯定很感興趣的是：why，為什麼位元組可以，抖音金融能夠飛速做大。關于 why，準備後續做詳細解讀，此處就先簡單寫寫。

我從業内朋友那裡聽到了大概幾個原因：使用者基數大、資料齊全，算法先進，在金融行業裡是降維打擊，有金融從業者對我說，上一次感受到這樣的震撼，還是看到花呗借呗一度觸及約2萬億的放貸餘額規模。移動網際網路的大資料量召喚出網絡放貸的洪荒之力，改寫了金融的玩法。

業内人士感歎，螞蟻做完使用者教育，抖音接力服務，前人栽樹，後人乘涼。使用者需求始終都在，隻是換了領頭羊。此消彼長之間，悄無聲息又轟隆作響。

這一輪對現金貸公司的調研，不看不知道，一看吓一跳，的确讓我們對于這個被遺忘的行業産生了許多新認知，實際上頭部現金貸公司，比如樂信、拍拍貸信也、小赢等公司以及作為巨頭生态的京東金融，略顯沉默但業績依然保持高增速，背後有着許多耐人尋味的細節，如果大家希望我後續展開講講，請在評論區讓我知道。

周天産業分析 原創出品 | techfinsight

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