中央經濟工作會議定調明年樓市，房地産闆塊後市怎麼走？機構這麼說

12月13日，房地産闆塊小幅下跌，截至發稿，*ST泛海跌停，城建發展跌超4%，濱江集團、招商蛇口、金地集團等跌幅居前。

中央經濟工作會議指出，要統籌化解房地産、地方債務、中小金融機構等風險，嚴厲打擊非法金融活動，堅決守住不發生系統性風險的底線。積極穩妥化解房地産風險，一視同仁滿足不同所有制房地産企業的合理融資需求，促進房地産市場平穩健康發展。加快推進保障性住房建設、“平急兩用”公共基礎設施建設、城中村改造等“三大工程”。完善相關基礎性制度，加快建構房地産發展新模式。

中指研究院預計，“三大工程”将加快推進。對于城中村改造，因城施策實施細則預計将陸續出台，一批項目有望進入實施階段，從供需兩端支援房地産企穩。對于保障性住房建設，實施政策有望逐漸明晰，配售型保障房供給量将有所增加。“平急兩用”公共基礎設施建設，或與低效、閑置基礎設施相結合，因地制宜實作資源再利用，也将對房地産投資産生積極帶動作用。

中金公司表示，中央經濟工作會議對于房地産領域整體延續了7月政治局會議和中央金融工作會議的相關取态，供需并重、長短兼顧。在供給側，會議着重強調了房企融資問題，目标是“堅決守住不發生系統性風險的底線”，這對新房銷售疲弱背景下房企現金流穩定和信用風險緩釋較為重要。在需求側，9月以來各地在“因城施策”架構下已較為高頻地出台了各類需求支援政策，本次會議強調的加快推進“三大工程”建設對進一步擴大内需十分關鍵。

該機構指出，目前房地産行業基本面走勢折射出前述舉措的必要性。地産行業基本面目前表現仍偏弱，我們認為政策的推進與落地可能是下一步仍須關注的催化劑，如有進展則優質非央國企的彈性或較高，“三大工程”概念股或也有積極表現，待基本面修複更加穩固後，均好型龍頭标的也将迎來價值回歸。目前階段可關注優質紅利股。

國金證券指出，年關漸近多家房企積極處置資産以實作資金回籠。同時，在近期各銀行密集召開房企座談會後，超百億開發貸已投向房企，金融端支援的快速落地展現出監管對于改善房企流動性的堅定信心及實際行動，有助于穩定預期、提振信心。

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