Author | Li Huiru, Gu Huaiyu, He Fan, Lv Shuang, Chen Hao, Guo Yuwei, Lu Political Commissar
Banks, investment and financing instruments
In terms of the repo market, the open market operation at the beginning of the month was mainly based on the withdrawal of liquidity, the reverse repo in the middle of the month was close to zero, and the cross-month liquidity was increased at the end of the month. The operating rate remains unchanged at 1.80% for the 7-day reverse repo rate and 2.50% for the MLF. In April 2024, the average value of DR001 was 1.76%, up 2bp from the previous month; The average value of DR007 was 1.88%, down 1bp from the previous month. As far as liquidity is concerned, it is expected that the impact of standardizing "manual interest supplement" will continue, ultra-long special treasury bonds will begin to be issued, the net financing scale of government bonds will rise, and the capital side will converge slightly.
In terms of the bill market, as of April 30, 2024, the yield on the 6-month rediscount notes of national stocks closed at 1.34%, with a monthly average of 1.63% and a monthly value of 1.92%. From the perspective of comprehensive economic fundamentals, financial fundamentals and funds, it is expected that the center of the 6M bill interest rate may fall at 1.15%-1.25%, the high point of the bill interest rate may rise to around 1.35%-1.40%, and the low point of the bill interest rate may be around 1.1%.
In the interbank certificate of deposit market, as of April 30, 2024, the yield on the 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit closed at 2.14%, with a monthly average of 2.16% and a monthly value of 2.32%. Looking forward to May, pay attention to the impact of the central bank's investment efforts and manual interest supplements, although the capital side will converge slightly, but the scale of wealth management has rebounded, foreign buyers have brought allocation demand, and the one-year interbank certificate of deposit has a high relative value, with the current support level near 1.9% and the resistance level near 2.2%.
In terms of commercial and financial bonds and capital instruments market, as of April 30, 2024, the yields of 5-year, 3-year and 1-year AAA commercial and financial bonds were 2.34%, 2.31% and 2.15% respectively, down 15.41bp, 11.11bp and 8.59bp from the beginning of the month, and the yields at the beginning of the month were 2.50%, 2.42% and 2.23% respectively, with an average monthly yield of 2.36%, 2.29% and 2.12%; The yields of 5-year, 3-year and 1-year AAA-Tier 2 capital bonds were 2.49%, 2.39% and 2.22% respectively, down 14.67bp, 15.51bp and 13.42bp respectively from the beginning of the month, and the yields at the beginning of the month were 2.64%, 2.55% and 2.36% respectively, with an average monthly yield of 2.50%, 2.38% and 2.20%; The yields of 5-year, 3-year and 1-year AAA-perpetual bonds were 2.54%, 2.44% and 2.24% respectively, down 19.15bp, 16.69bp and 15.97bp from the beginning of the month, and the yields at the beginning of the month were 2.73%, 2.61% and 2.40% respectively, with an average monthly yield of 2.55%, 2.43% and 2.23%.
As of May 12, 2024, the available quotas for the approval of secondary permanent bonds of major state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks and other banks were 454 billion yuan, 319 billion yuan, 128.2 billion yuan, 33.51 billion yuan and 3.5 billion yuan respectively. In April 2024, the net issuance of bank second permanent bonds was 141.25 billion yuan, an increase of 100.5 billion yuan over the same period in 2023. In addition, in May 2024, a total of 2 secondary perpetual bonds will face the question of whether to exercise the right of redemption. As of 13 May 2024, the relevant banks have announced the exercise of their redemption rights. In terms of insurance company bonds, in April 2024, the issuance of insurance company bonds will be 1 billion yuan, and the maturity amount will be 10 billion yuan.
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