专家观点｜雷纳特·别科图尔沃夫：应提高全球贸易路线多样化，推广更多替代路线

雷纳特·别科图尔沃夫

阿斯塔纳国际金融中心总裁

Renat BEKTUROV

Governor of Astana International Financial Centre

问：疫情之后的区域化合作也呈现出新的发展趋势。亚洲各国应该以及可以在哪些方面加强合作？

答：亚洲是人口最多的大洲，经济增长也一直充满活力。特别值得一提的是，亚洲各国的经济颇具互补性，因此可以在许多领域开展合作，但我主要想着重于加强基础设施、深化金融互联互通方面。

地缘政治紧张是导致全球贸易萎缩的原因之一。在此背景下，我们应提高全球贸易路线的多样化，推广更多的替代路线，要实现上述目标，显然要对基础设施进行大量投资，还要实施一系列“软连接”措施，如消除非贸易壁垒、推进数字化转型和改善资产管理水平等。在此我想以中亚为例，据欧洲复兴发展银行估计，要确保欧亚间运输的畅通，需要在中亚实施30多个基础设施项目，总投资需求为185亿欧元。而且在进行这些投资时，还需要结合实施七项软连接措施。

为推动亚欧大陆贸易，哈萨克斯坦为“中间走廊”计划启动了一系列基础设施开发项目。如果上述投资项目和“软连接”措施能够成功落地，经由跨里海国际运输走廊的集装箱量预计将从2022年的1.8万个标准箱增至2040年的86.5万个标准箱，增长约48倍。

在开展贸易、投资实施联合项目及管理相关风险的过程中，我们需要进一步加强本地区各国之间的金融互联互通水平。2013年，中亚与东亚、东南亚的贸易额为525亿美元，此后一直变化不大（2021年约为530亿美元）。在外国直接投资方面也是如此。考虑到过去10年本地区经济增长显著，在贸易和投资方面显然还有巨大的潜力有待挖掘。

在加强东亚、中亚在贸易投资领域的金融互联方面，阿斯塔纳国际金融中心可以发挥重要作用。阿斯塔纳国际金融中心如今已是全面、规范的国际金融交易平台，可以为企业提供多元化的金融工具。凭借符合国际最佳实践的健全监管框架，阿斯塔纳国际金融中心可以为投资者提供安全透明的投资环境，还可以扮演区域合作与协作枢纽的角色，在企业与全球金融机构之间建立起沟通的桥梁。

问：面对技术的快速进步，如何监控AI的发展不危害人类，与人类的价值观和全球利益相契合是必须回答的时代问题。全球各国对此的监管理念和做法有所差异，如何构建一个既能适应AI不断变化的特性，又能满足全球治理需求的监管机制？

答：纵观全球，各大金融组织已经通过应用人工智能技术取得了丰硕成果，比如效率的提升、客户服务体验的丰富和金融风险的降低。高盛和摩根大通等全球性金融巨头打造了许多令人眼前一亮的应用，用实践展现了人工智能的变革能力，在决策流程自动化和优化客户服务运营方面的作用尤其明显。

迪拜国际金融中心打造了积极利用AI技术开展风险分析和市场趋势预测工作的多元化平台，其实践经验可以表明，监管框架必须要能适应AI技术每一次细微的进步。一般认为，在设置统一标准和准则、确保实现负责任的AI治理方面，国际合作至关重要，也只有这样才能促使不同司法管辖区采取协同的监管方法。

金融服务行业在应用AI技术时必须考虑道德方面的问题，必须坚持透明、负责任的原则，只有这样才能维护客户的信任，维持自己诚实守信的形象。比如万事达卡在将AI技术应用于欺诈预防和异常检测时，就对算法流程采用了公开透明的态度，并对相关工作持续进行监控，这种做法在降低风险和防止可能出现的滥用行为方面发挥了至关重要的作用。

要想在金融领域建立AI应用监督机制，必须多管齐下。我们要推动国际合作，采用灵活的监管框架，让利益相关者都能参与进来，要遵守道德准则，确保公开透明、责任清晰，还要持续监控AI系统的运行状况，并对能力建设进行投资，只有这样，监管机构才能很好地驾驭复杂的AI治理工作。全面的监督管理战略不仅可以帮助金融行业更加谨慎地应用AI技术，还能推动金融行业实现可持续的增长和创新，同时防范潜在风险和道德失范问题的出现。

问：纵观产业发展历史，半导体、新能源等改变了社会与发展的科技突破都离不开国际交流与合作。在当前的全球形势下，如何促进科技创新方面的国际合作？

答：要想在当今这种全球格局中推动国际科技创新合作，有几项工作十分关键。

首先，要打造、培育有利于知识共享、合作研究、技术转让的合作平台；其次，鼓励对有关方面开放科研成果、数据和资源的开放准入；第三，各国政府、跨国组织和私营部门实体可以对那些以应对全球挑战为使命的联合研究计划进行投资，取长补短，汇集各方资源和专业知识，解决气候变化、医疗保健和网络安全等复杂问题；第四，通过交流项目、联合培训计划和国际奖学金等计划，加强人才流动，增强跨境合作。

第五，需要协同各国标准和法规，这样可以提高相关技术的互操作性和兼容性。通过在数据隐私、网络安全和知识产权等领域建立共同标准，可以让利益相关方对彼此更加信任。

最后但同样也十分重要的是，我们需要为“科学外交”提供支持。我们要将科学外交作为促进国际合作的工具，帮助弥合政治分歧，推进国家间对话。

问：COP28大会达成了一项重要国际共识，即逐渐摆脱煤炭、石油和天然气这些传统能源，但与此同时，经过减排技术的化石能源仍然将是未来能源格局中的重要组成部分。如何通过国际谈判和合作建立起激励机制让发达国家愿意做，同时帮助相对不发达国家能够有足够的资源顺利完成转型？

答：以保护气候的名义要求发展中国家牺牲国家发展、放弃现代化进程显然有失公平。在非化石能源的竞争力和可靠性足以取代化石能源之前，务实的做法是将采用化石燃料，尤其是天然气，作为实现脱碳前的过渡选项。因此，现在的首要任务是开发出能够最大化清洁化石能源的技术，并加以推广。在世界许多地区，核能也会发挥重要作用，哈萨克斯坦也在认真考虑是否加大对核能的投入。

虽然化石燃料的未来面临重重挑战，但在未来的低碳世界中，也有一些机会（比如二氧化碳捕获和储存技术的进步）可以帮其保留一席之地。经过在发达国家的先期应用，许多高能效、可再生能源技术的成本已经明显降低，现在进行相关投资对于南方国家而言也不失为明智之举。

至于如何激励发达国家协助完成能源转型，除了呼吁相关国家作出更有力度的承诺，扩大气候融资、充实全球气候基金外，进一步优化投资环境，创造更好的合作机会还大有作为。可以采取的措施包括：通过遵守最高标准、提高投资者信任度，鼓励发达国家对欠发达国家的绿色债券和可持续发展项目进行投资；推动发达国家和发展中国家间合作，携手解决双方在向清洁能源过渡的过程中所面临的共同挑战；签订绿色贸易协定，为积极向清洁能源过渡的贸易伙伴双方提供贸易优惠。

Q: New development trends in regional cooperation have emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic. In what areas should Asian nations focus on bolstering cooperation?

A: Asia is the largest continent in terms of population, and the region has been demonstrating dynamic economic growth. Importantly, the Asian nations have complementing economies, therefore there are many areas where Asian countries could cooperate, I would like to focus on enhancing infrastructure and financial connectivity in the region.

Geopolitical tensions are one of the reasons for the decline in global trade. Global trade routes should be diversified, and more alternative routes should be promoted, which obviously requires significant investments in hard infrastructure and implementation of soft connectivity measures, such as removal of nontrade barriers, digitalization, and improved asset management. For example, the EBRD estimates investment needs of 18.5 bln euro for over 30 infrastructure projects in Central Asia to ensure the sustainable transport connections between Europe and Asia. And these investments need to be coupled with seven soft connectivity measures.

Kazakhstan has initiated a range of infrastructure projects for the development of the Middle Corridor to bolster trade on the continent. If the mentioned investment projects and soft connectivity measures are implemented, transit container volume via the Central Trans-Caspian Network is forecast to increase from 18,000 TEUs in 2022 to 865,000 TEUs in 2040, which means an increase of around 48 times.

As we trade with each other, invest in and implement joint projects, and manage related risks, we need to further enhance financial connectivity between the countries in the region. Trade turnover of Central Asia with East and Southeast Asia amounted to $52.5 billion in 2013, and since then has not changed much (around $53 billion in 2021). The same is true in terms of FDI. As our economies have grown significantly over the last 10 years, clearly, there is still significant unlocked potential between our regions in terms of trade and investment.

The AIFC can play a vital role in bridging the gap between Central Asia and East Asia, by facilitating financial connectivity for trade and investment, today the AIFC offers a comprehensive and well-regulated platform for international financial transactions, and provides businesses with access to a diverse range of financial instruments. With a robust regulatory framework aligned with international best practices, AIFC ensures a secure and transparent environment for investors and serves as a hub for regional cooperation and collaboration, connecting businesses with global financial institutions.

Q: Given the rapid advancement of technology, ensuring AI does not endanger humanity and that it is compatible with human values and global interests are key issues for our time. Differences exist among countries in terms of their approaches and methods to supervising AI. How can we build an oversight mechanism that can accommodate the ever-changing nature of AI and meet global governance requirements at the same time?

A: The integration of AI into financial organizations worldwide has yielded remarkable outcomes, including heightened efficiency, enriched customer service experiences, and diminished financial risks. Noteworthy instances from global financial juggernauts like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase underscore the transformative capabilities of AI, particularly in automating decision-making processes and optimizing customer service operations.

Taking cues from initiatives within the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), where multifaceted platforms harness AI for risk analysis and market trend forecasting, regulatory frameworks must exhibit adaptability to accommodate the dynamic nuances of AI technology. International collaboration is deemed paramount in establishing uniform standards and guidelines to ensure responsible AI governance, fostering a harmonized approach across diverse jurisdictions.

Ethical considerations loom large in the deployment of AI within financial services, necessitating transparent and accountable practices to uphold trust and integrity. As evidenced by Mastercard’s utilization of AI for fraud prevention and anomaly detection, transparency in algorithmic processes and continuous monitoring are imperative to mitigate risks and safeguard against potential misuse.

Addressing the question of establishing oversight mechanisms for AI in finance necessitates a multifaceted approach. By fostering international collaboration, embracing flexible regulatory frameworks, engaging stakeholders, adhering to ethical guidelines, ensuring transparency and accountability, continuously monitoring AI systems, and investing in capacity building, regulators can adeptly navigate the complexities of AI governance. This comprehensive strategy not only facilitates the prudent adoption of AI in finance but also propels the financial industry towards sustainable growth and innovation while safeguarding against potential risks and ethical lapses.

Q: International exchange and cooperation is integral to scientific and technological breakthroughs. Given the current global situation, how can we advance international cooperation in the area of scientific and technological innovation?

A: To propel international cooperation in scientific and technological innovation amidst the contemporary global landscape, several key strategies can be employed.

Firstly, creating and nurturing collaborative platforms that facilitate knowledge sharing, research partnerships, and technology transfer is essential.

Secondly, encouraging open access to scientific research findings, data, and resources can foster greater collaboration and innovation.

Thirdly, governments, multinational organizations, and private sector entities can invest in joint research initiatives that tackle global challenges and leverage complementary strengths, which can pool resources and expertise to address complex issues such as climate change, healthcare, and cybersecurity.

Fourthly, promoting talent mobility through programs such as exchange programs, joint training initiatives, and international fellowships can enhance cross-border collaboration.

Fifthly, Harmonizing standards and regulations across countries can facilitate interoperability and compatibility of technologies, thereby facilitating international collaboration. Establishing common standards in areas such as data privacy, cybersecurity, and intellectual property rights can foster trust and facilitate cooperation among stakeholders.

Last but not the least, we need support for science diplomacy. Leveraging science diplomacy as a tool for fostering international cooperation can bridge political divides and facilitate dialogue among nations.

Q: A significant consensus was reached at COP28. There should be a gradual transitioning away from traditional fuels, but fossil fuels that are subjected to emission reduction technologies will remain a key component of the future energy landscape. How can we construct incentives that encourage developed countries to abide by this consensus and ensure that less developed countries have the resources they need complete their transition?

A: It would not be fair to demand that developing countries sacrifice national development and modernization in the name of climate protection. And there is an understanding that fossil fuels, especially natural gas, are a practical bridge toward a decarbonized future until non-fossil energy sources become competitive and reliable enough to replace them. The priority should therefore be the development and dissemination of technologies to process fossil fuels as cleanly as possible. Nuclear energy will also play an essential role in many parts of the world, and in Kazakhstan it is considered seriously. Despite the challenges facing the future of fossil fuels, there are also several opportunities that could help sustain some of their use in a low-carbon world, such as the advancement of CCS technology . Many energy-efficient and renewable energy technologies whose costs have been reduced through prior implementation in developed countries will be good investment targets for the Global South.

As for incentivizing developed countries to assist in this transition, aside from calling for more ambitious pledges to enable a scale-up in climate financing and replenishment of global climate funds, there is a room to provide better investment climates and collaborative initiatives. These include:

Encouraging developed countries to invest in green bonds and sustainable projects in less developed countries by ensuring adherence to best standards to foster credibility among investors.

Promoting collaborative initiatives between developed and developing countries to address common challenges in the transition to clean energy.

Green trade agreements that provide trade benefits for both trading partners actively transitioning to clean energy.