ORNL study projects geothermal heat pumps’ impact on carbon emissions and electrical grid by 2050
ORNL研究预计到2050年地热热泵对碳排放和电网的影响
February 14, 2024 2月 14， 2024
ORNL study projects how geothermal heat pumps that derive heating and cooling from the ground would improve grid reliability and reduce costs and carbon emissions when widely deployed. Credit: Chad Malone/ ORNL, U.S. Dept. of Energy
ORNL的研究预测了从地面获得供暖和制冷的地热热泵在广泛部署后将如何提高电网可靠性并降低成本和碳排放。图片来源：Chad Malone/ORNL，美国能源部
A modeling analysis led by the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory gives the first detailed look at how geothermal energy can relieve the electric power system and reduce carbon emissions if widely implemented across the United States within the next few decades.
由美国能源部橡树岭国家实验室（Oak Ridge National Laboratory）领导的一项建模分析首次详细研究了地热能如何缓解电力系统并减少碳排放，如果在未来几十年内在美国广泛实施。
Researchers created a simulation model of the mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps, or GHPs, in commercial and residential buildings from 2022 through 2050. The simulation results indicated that if GHPs, also known as ground-source heat pumps, were deployed on a national scale along with building envelope improvements in single-family homes, the stress on the power grid would be relieved, energy costs lowered and carbon dioxide emissions reduced substantially.
研究人员创建了一个模拟模型，该模型显示了 2022 年至 2050 年在商业和住宅建筑中大规模部署地热热泵 （GHP）。模拟结果表明，如果在全国范围内部署GHP（也称为地源热泵）以及单户住宅的建筑围护结构改善，将缓解电网压力，降低能源成本并大幅减少二氧化碳排放。
“GHPs have traditionally been seen as a building energy efficiency technology,” said ORNL’s Xiaobing Liu, who served as the primary researcher on the study. “This analysis found that GHPs have a tremendous impact on electric power systems by reducing the requirements in capacity, generation, and transmission, as well as carbon emissions.”
“GHPs传统上被视为一种建筑能效技术，”ORNL的Xiaobing Liu说，他是该研究的主要研究员。“这项分析发现，GHPs通过降低容量、发电和输电方面的要求以及碳排放，对电力系统产生了巨大影响。”
Groundbreaking numbers 突破性的数字
GHPs provide an environmentally friendly, energy-efficient alternative to conventional heating, ventilation and air-conditioning, or HVAC, systems. They operate by transferring heat to and from the ground through underground pipes. The pipe system extracts heat from the ground to warm buildings in the winter while using the ground as a heat sink to cool buildings in the summer.
GHP 为传统的供暖、通风和空调 （HVAC） 系统提供了一种环保、节能的替代方案。它们通过地下管道将热量传入和传出地面来运行。管道系统在冬季从地面提取热量以加热建筑物，而在夏季则将地面用作散热器以冷却建筑物。
Liu said that mass GHP deployment in both commercial and residential buildings, coupled with building envelope improvements in single-family homes, can reduce more than 7,000 million metric tons of carbon emissions through 2050, with more than 3,000 million metric tons of reduction coming from the electric sector and the remaining coming from the replacement of natural gas for heating in the building sector.
Liu表示，在商业和住宅建筑中大规模部署GHP，加上单户住宅的建筑围护结构改善，到2050年可以减少超过70亿公吨的碳排放，其中超过30亿公吨的减少来自电力部门，其余来自建筑部门替代天然气供暖。
“It is well understood that GHPs are beneficial for lowering building energy costs because of their high efficiency and ability to supply heat without fuel purchases, resulting in zero on-site emissions,” Liu said. “Until now, though, few studies have investigated the impacts of large-scale deployment of GHPs on the electrical grid.”
“众所周知，GHP有利于降低建筑能源成本，因为它们效率高，能够在不购买燃料的情况下供热，从而实现零现场排放，”刘说。“然而，到目前为止，很少有研究调查大规模部署GHPs对电网的影响。
ORNL buildings and electrification researchers worked with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, or NREL, to build co-simulations of the U.S. building stock and the electric power systems using ORNL’s GHP system simulation tool and building data available in NREL’s Energy Use Load Profiles. The first-of-its-kind study simulates the energy use impacts if GHPs were deployed into 68% of existing and new building floor space across the contiguous United States. Researchers studied three scenarios: continuing to operate the grid as it is today; reaching 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050; and expanding grid decarbonization to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating. The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without mass GHP deployment coupled with building envelope improvements in single-family homes.
ORNL建筑和电气化研究人员与国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）合作，使用ORNL的GHP系统模拟工具和NREL的能源使用负荷配置文件中提供的建筑数据，构建美国建筑存量和电力系统的共同模拟。这项史无前例的研究模拟了如果将 GHP 部署到美国本土 68% 的现有和新建筑面积中，能源使用的影响。研究人员研究了三种情况：继续像今天一样运营电网;到 2035 年实现 95% 的电网减排，到 2050 年实现 100% 的清洁电力;扩大电网脱碳，包括包括建筑供暖在内的广泛经济领域的电气化。分析团队对这三种情况中的每一种都进行了建模，无论是否大规模部署 GHP 以及单户住宅的建筑围护结构改进。
Xiaobing Liu, who directs the Thermal Energy Storage group at ORNL, led a study that analyzed the impact if geothermal heat pumps were deployed in most buildings across the U.S. by 2050. Credit: Carlos Jones/ ORNL, U.S. Dept. of Energy
ORNL热能存储小组负责人刘晓兵领导了一项研究，该研究分析了到2050年在美国大多数建筑物中部署地热热泵的影响。图片来源：Carlos Jones/ORNL，美国能源部
“The results were developed using the current capability of existing tools and data,” Liu added. “We combined NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System model and PLEXOS, a commercial software for more detailed simulation of electric power systems, to perform multiyear simulations of U.S. electric power systems in different scenarios in contrasting regions, in different seasons and during times of peak and low energy demand.”
“结果是利用现有工具和数据的当前能力开发的，”刘补充道。“我们将NREL的区域能源部署系统模型与PLEXOS（一种用于更详细地模拟电力系统的商业软件）相结合，在对比地区，不同季节以及能源需求高峰和低谷的不同场景中对美国电力系统进行多年模拟。
Although savings in electricity demand and reduction in carbon emissions were realized in almost all regions of the country, the simulations indicated that in cold climates, GHPs are more effective at reducing carbon emissions and energy consumption compared with conventional HVAC systems as the result of displacing natural gas furnaces and reducing the use of electric heaters. In warmer climates, such as in the South and other milder climate zones, GHPs generate higher electricity savings. Peak electric demand reduction is also highest in densely populated areas of the South.
尽管该国几乎所有地区都实现了电力需求的节省和碳排放的减少，但模拟表明，在寒冷气候下，与传统的暖通空调系统相比，GHP在减少碳排放和能源消耗方面更有效，因为取代了天然气炉并减少了电加热器的使用。在温暖的气候中，例如在南方和其他温和的气候区，GHPs可以节省更多的电力。在南方人口稠密地区，峰值电力需求减少率也最高。
“We showed that a mass deployment of GHPs coupled with building envelope improvements can reduce the generation and capacity needs of the U.S. electric power system by up to 11% and 13%, respectively, in 2050,” Liu said. “The peak electric demand in some hot climate zones can also be reduced up to 28%, which will ease grid operations.”
“我们表明，到2050年，GHP的大规模部署加上建筑围护结构的改善可以将美国电力系统的发电量和容量需求分别减少11%和13%，”刘说。“一些炎热气候地区的峰值电力需求也可以减少多达28%，这将简化电网运营。”
These percentages translate into saving approximately 600 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2050 while eliminating more than 5,000 billion megajoules of fossil fuels, which is equivalent to 5% of the primary energy consumed in the United States in 2022, including natural gas, heating oil and propane. If GHP deployment were to increase steadily from 2022 through 2050, more than $300 billion cumulative electricity payments would be saved, too. Liu said this would require the deployment of approximately five million GHPs per year.
这些百分比意味着在 2050 年节省约 600 太瓦时的电力，同时消除超过 50000 亿兆焦耳的化石燃料，这相当于 2022 年美国消耗的一次能源的 5%，包括天然气、取暖油和丙烷。如果从 2022 年到 2050 年，GHP 部署稳步增加，累计电费也将节省超过 3000 亿美元。刘说，这将需要每年部署大约500万个GHP。
Decreasing outages 减少中断
As extreme weather events continue to strain the electrical grid, extended power failures or rolling blackouts have occurred in recent years. GHPs could be a solution to improving grid stability. To prove the capability, the study analyzed the impact of mass GHP deployment on the Texas electrical grid, which experienced significant power loss with winter storms in 2021.
随着极端天气事件继续给电网带来压力，近年来发生了长时间停电或轮流停电的情况。GHP可以成为提高电网稳定性的解决方案。为了证明这种能力，该研究分析了大规模 GHP 部署对德克萨斯州电网的影响，该电网在 2021 年的冬季风暴中经历了重大的电力损失。
“During these intense weather events, mass deployment of GHPs could have improved the operation of the grid by reducing total electricity demand,” Liu said. “This preliminary analysis can provide insightful information to Texas and other regions that have experienced higher demand for electricity than the power plants can provide during periods of prolonged severe weather.”
“在这些强烈的天气事件中，大规模部署GHP可以通过减少总电力需求来改善电网的运行，”刘说。“这项初步分析可以为德克萨斯州和其他地区提供有见地的信息，这些地区的电力需求高于发电厂在长期恶劣天气期间所能提供的电力需求。
Liu said that although the initial evaluation indicates that mass deployment of GHPs can improve grid reliability in Texas, a more detailed analysis is needed to get a precise picture of how they would perform in different regions.
Liu说，尽管初步评估表明，大规模部署GHP可以提高德克萨斯州的电网可靠性，但需要更详细的分析才能准确了解它们在不同地区的表现。
Jamie Lian, who served as a coinvestigator of the study, added that if GHPs were to be deployed across the United States, many installations would be done by utilities in district-scale systems so that ground drilling can be leveraged across numerous buildings. The study provides a basis for utilities to evaluate the investment of GHP deployment.
作为该研究的共同研究员杰米·连（Jamie Lian）补充说，如果要在美国各地部署GHP，那么许多安装将由公用事业公司在地区规模的系统中完成，以便可以在众多建筑物中利用地面钻探。该研究为公用事业公司评估GHP部署的投资提供了基础。
“A lasting benefit of this study is that we’ve developed a nationwide analysis that scales up from the building analysis to the regional impact and to the entire grid,” Lian said.
“这项研究的一个持久好处是，我们开发了一个全国性的分析，从建筑分析扩展到区域影响和整个电网，”Lian说。
Timely Tools 及时的工具
To better understand the cost and benefits of GHP applications, the ORNL research team has developed a consumer-friendly, web-based tool for estimating the cost and benefits of applying GHPs in residential and commercial buildings.
为了更好地了解GHP应用的成本和收益，ORNL研究团队开发了一种消费者友好的基于Web的工具，用于估算在住宅和商业建筑中应用GHP的成本和收益。
The free tool is openly accessible to homeowners, builders, installers, and manufacturers. It allows users to calculate the energy savings that can be achieved by GHPs when installed in any type of residential or commercial building in any U.S. climate zone. The tool leveraged ORNL’s AutoBEM software, which can automatically create a building energy simulation model for almost any existing building in the nation based on minimal information, including the building footprint, vintage, principal function and other information from DOE’s prototype building models.
房主、建筑商、安装人员和制造商都可以公开访问该免费工具。它允许用户计算 GHP 安装在任何美国气候区的任何类型的住宅或商业建筑中时可以实现的节能效果。该工具利用了ORNL的AutoBEM软件，该软件可以根据最少的信息，包括建筑占地面积，年份，主要功能以及来自DOE原型建筑模型的其他信息，为全国几乎任何现有建筑自动创建建筑能源模拟模型。
“When there is a massive deployment of GHP systems, we now have a starting point for what it would look like in terms of capacity, generation, emissions, cost and resilience for the electric power systems,” Liu said. “That picture looks very promising.”
“当大规模部署GHP系统时，我们现在有一个起点，可以在电力系统的容量，发电量，排放，成本和弹性方面是什么样子，”刘说。“这张照片看起来很有希望。” 编译 陈讲运
In addition to Liu and Lian, contributing researchers on the study include Xiaofei Wang, Mini Malhotra, Yanfei Li and Jyothis Anand from ORNL; Jonathan Ho and Weijia Liu from NREL; and Sean Porse and Jeff Winick, from DOE.
除了Liu和Lian之外，该研究的贡献研究人员还包括来自ORNL的Xiaofei Wang，Mini Malhotra，Yanfei Li和Jyothis Anand;来自NREL的Jonathan Ho和Weijia Liu;以及来自美国能源部的肖恩·波尔斯（Sean Porse）和杰夫·威尼克（Jeff Winick）。