重磅发声！防止市场大起大落！

图片来源：微信公众号公共图片库，Pexeles提供（图文无关）

2月27日，住建部发布《关于做好住房发展规划和年度计划编制工作的通知》，其中提到了：

根据人口变化确定住房需求，根据住房需求科学安排土地供应、引导配置金融资源，实现以人定房，以房定地、以房定钱，促进房地产市场供需平衡、结构合理，防止市场大起大落。

之前官方文件的措辞一般是“促进房地产市场健康平稳发展”，这次特别提到了要“防止市场大起大落”。

这样的发声对于当前的房地产市场来说，具有非常大的现实意义。现在的房地产市场下跌的时间和深度明显有点超预期了。而其中造成这样下跌就有很重要的市场心理导致的“趋势”因素，何解？

市场大起大落，很容易导致市场心理短时间的大起大落，容易导致价格“涨过头”或是“跌过头”了。这几年大家也能感受到了房地产购房者心态的变化，过去是蜜汁自信的认为房价“只涨不跌”，而现在出现了180度的大转弯，变成了对市场后市走势的极度悲观。

说句挨骂的话，过度上涨产生最大问题可能就是以后过度下跌造成的危害。所以最终的危害都会在过度下跌上体现。而目前楼市的下行态势就有点猛了，已经有一些问题产生了，比如不少购房者的已经把首付跌完了，再比如说法拍房的数据剧增。前者可能会影响消费继而影响经济，而每套法拍房背后都是一个家庭。

所以说，这个时候提要“防止市场大起大落”是具有现实意义的。房价会下跌，房地产业会下行，但这个过程不能太短了太剧烈了，真的搞成了硬着陆，谁都不是受益方。我在之前的文章里也系统分析了为何房地产不能在短时间出现大幅下跌，这里就不赘述。

但是观点还是那个观点，房地产已经今非昔比了，房价再也难有普涨行情了，但这并不代表房地产就可以应该立马掉头下行，并在短时间完成去泡沫化。

最后再强调一下，有人说我文章观点转变了，也有人说我是楼市的空头。我想说的是我的观点并未发生根本性的改变，我更不是所谓的空头。我写的文章有时候是对市场现象一种描述和分析，比说我在有些文章里分析到房价在下跌，这是对事实阐述，而并不代表我认为房价在短时间剧烈下跌是好事。所以还是要把对市场现象的分析与表达的观点分开。

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