王一博没有出事，但港股的问题很严峻

2021年9月，我参加港交所在北京举办的一个活动。在活动间隙，我问港交所和中资投行的朋友：“现在中美经贸关系比较紧张，一些外资机构在重新评估香港的定位，港股会不会遭遇流动性问题？”对方的回答相当乐观：“不会！最近的事实一再证明，仅仅依靠中资的力量，也足以撑起香港的一片天。”他们举出了当时正在进行港股IPO的商汤为例——哪怕美国威胁对其进行制裁，也并未影响其上市成功，这是港股韧性和市场深度的最佳体现云云。

两年多过去了，上面的这番回答，如今看来真像个笑话！就在今天上午，乐华娱乐港股一度暴跌80%以上，由此在社交媒体上引发了“王一博是不是出事了”的猜测，甚至导致乐华娱乐不得不发布公告澄清。然而，熟悉资本市场的人都看得出，乐华娱乐暴跌是因为限售股解禁在即，因为担心限售股东砸盘，一部分投资者先跑为敬。仅仅7000多万的成交额，就让乐华这家“中国娱乐经纪第一股”出现了断崖式暴跌，这充分显示了港股的流动性困境，以及由此导致的投融资功能衰退。

其实，哪怕是比乐华娱乐体量更大、质地更优秀的上市公司，在香港也拿不到多少流动性。2023年10月上市的极兔速递，算得上近年来港股屈指可数的“明星IPO”了，上市至今日均成交额也仅有5000万左右。哪怕是“股王”腾讯，平均每天成交额也只有七八十亿，相当于日均换手率千分之三。对于整个港股市场而言，每天成交额能突破2000亿就算谢天谢地，突破3000亿就可以烧高香了。与其说港股是一个处于枯水期的湖泊，还不如说是湖泊干涸留下的小池塘。

有人会说：“以前的港股也是这个样子的！十几年前，港股的日均成交额才只几百亿呢。”没错，由于本地投资者（尤其是散户）规模不足，港股一直不以流动性著称；但是它仍然有能力吃下大规模的IPO、增发、限售股解禁，尤其是那些比较优质的资产。因为香港是一个开放的市场，全球资金来去自由，不是一个存量市场，随时可以有大量增量资金涌入（当然也可以随时离去）。我们不能把港股当做与A股一样的“存量博弈市场”看待，应该把它看做以美元定价的全球资本市场有机组成部分。

现在的问题就是，港股与全球资本市场之间的联系远远不如当年那么通畅了，而且问题不太可能在短期内解决。就像希腊神话中的安泰，双脚离开了地面，不再能从大地母亲那里吸取力量。香港希望从内地引入足够的资金以顶上空缺（就像本文开头时港交所和中资投行的朋友所提到的），但是事实证明，其效果并不十分理想。与美股和中国A股两大资本市场相比，港股就像被夹在三明治里的菜叶，两头不讨好：

美股拥有全世界最丰富的资产（以及一些最优质的资产）、最深的流动性池以及最自由的资金出入机制。只要是具备全球资产配置能力的投资者，谁都需要配置相当数量的美股。

A股虽然是一个封闭的市场，但是背靠庞大的中国内地人民币流动性，有数量庞大的散户投资者以及越来越多的机构投资者。如果你适应了A股的游戏规则，就会发现它能够自洽，总有一部分人能如鱼得水。

对于内地投资者而言，港股市场又有什么独特的价值呢？如果投资者的钱能出境、能进行全球资产配置，为什么不去买美股（以及最近一年炙手可热的日本、印度股市）？如果投资者的钱不能出境，那么理所当然只能首选A股。即便扩大了港股通规模、增设了人民币港股交易柜台，起到的作用也非常有限。由此形成了一个恶性循环：内地投资者越是对港股不感冒，港股的流动性就越差，由此导致内地投资者对港股更不感冒……

哪怕港股市场还存在一些独特的资产（例如部分互联网大厂、消费巨头等），在严重的、恶性循环式的流动性缺乏面前，这些资产的估值也不可避免地大打折扣。就拿刚刚暴跌80%的乐华娱乐来说，不论其业绩如何，至少还是具备一定稀缺性的——可是市场还是没有对它手下留情。

耐人寻味的是，在港股的投融资功能已经大幅衰退的情况下，还是有大批“独角兽”公司正在排队等待港股上市。其中已经公布招股书的就有：菜鸟、货拉拉、蜜雪冰城、古茗、茶百道、嘀嗒，等等；至于小红书和字节跳动策划香港上市的消息已经传了很久，只是尚未尘埃落地。显然，哪怕是现在这个奄奄一息的港股市场，对于很多中国独角兽而言，仍然是根救命稻草。

毫无疑问，现在还指望港股这根救命稻草的独角兽，主要是那些“既不方便去美股、也很难上A股”的公司，大致又分为两类：

自从2021年下半年以来，中国互联网平台公司赴美上市的路径基本切断。然而，这些互联网公司往往以VIE架构存在，难以登陆A股；再加上规模往往很大，A股能否吃得下也是个很大的未知数。

至于线下消费、餐饮、快消等公司，在A股上市也很困难，但美股也很难赋予它们较高估值。此外，近年来线下消费公司的线上配送及会员业务越做越大，从而具备了一定的“互联网平台”属性，赴美上市的难度更大了。

结果，我们看到“新茶饮三巨头”前脚接后脚地递交了港股招股书；极兔速递尚未登陆港股，其竞争对手菜鸟就递交了招股书；看样子小红书正式递交港股上市申请也只是时间问题。按照现在的形势，这些公司选择港股，其估值都会蒙受一定的损失，甚至在IPO阶段就有“贱卖”的可能性；但是如果还有别的选择，谁又会选择港股呢？

或许是注意到了这个问题，就在几天前，上海市发布了关于鼓励符合条件的红筹架构的新经济企业在境内上市的文件；但这只是上海本地的文件，对交易所没有直接的指导意义。关于“欢迎VIE互联网企业回A股上市”的说法已经至少出现过三轮了，但是从未成为事实。即便它成为事实，我们也需要意识到：目前排队等待A股IPO的公司已经很多了，而A股对IPO（市场扩容）的承载能力一贯很弱，在客观上并不具备迎回“独角兽”的条件……

总而言之，乐华娱乐的暴跌，折射了港股面临的严峻问题；如此萎靡的港股市场，竟然还有大批独角兽排队等待上市，不得不说，独角兽们面临的问题显然更加严峻。而独角兽的问题早已传导到一级市场，对创业者和创业投资都形成了明显的压制。

上述一连串的问题，看起来复杂，但是解决起来也容易——经济增长。只要经济出现一波明显、有力、可持续的增长，不但港股流动性问题可以迎刃而解，所有流动性问题都能化解于无形。不要忘记，历史上港股流动性最强的时候，是人们对中国经济最乐观的时候；2022年底的那波强劲反弹，折射的是全世界对中国经济复苏的高预期。在本文开头，港交所和中资投行的朋友，也是基于“中国经济增长将长期冠绝全球”的假设，做出乐观判断的。

发展，不能解决一切问题，但是能解决大部分问题。那么，我们何时能等到“发展”这尊大神显灵，解决港股市场、独角兽乃至创业者面临的问题呢？那就是另一个问题了。

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#6265f1;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #e17719;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(225, 119, 25, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #007dbb;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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#74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: 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