一年涨13%！菜百黄金柜台顾客爆满“越涨越买”，金价历史新高，十年前站岗“大妈”早已解套

转运珠柜台的顾客。

年底年初之际，黄金首饰消费和实体金条投资持续升温，即便黄金价格已经冲到历史高位。有消费者感慨北京菜百首饰门店的现场“里三层，外三层”“买黄金跟买白菜一样”。

影响黄金价格走势的最重要的因素是什么？黄金价格走势将会如何？有人认为黄金涨到1000元/克都有可能；有人表示，买黄金没有技巧，全靠买得早；有人推测，明年美联储真的降息了，金价并不一定会上涨，但是，美联储没有降息，金价大概率会下跌。

业内专家向记者分析指出，美联储降息背景下，2024年金价大概率会震荡上涨。不过，市场仍会博弈美联储降息的时点、力度、频率，加大金价的波动，央行每月购金力度也会对金价产生较大的影响。而在黄金大概率趋势性上涨的情况下，预计黄金的消费市场和投资市场都会保持高景气度。

菜百总店客流状况。

买黄金跟买白菜一样？

“每次去菜百都很感慨，只见到里三层，外三层的人，仿佛买黄金跟买白菜一样。今天还是工作日，后面假期，来买的人应该会更多。”12月29日，一位北京的消费者向《华夏时报》记者表示。

当日下午，记者到访北京多个黄金首饰门店，其中，菜百首饰总店熙熙攘攘、客流如梭。从现场的情况来看，婚庆、转运珠区域人流最为密集，其中黄金转运珠柜台一个销售人员面前就站有十多名顾客，其他新来的顾客想要去挑选转运珠，只能“见缝插针”挤到柜台前。

而不仅仅是菜百总店，北京其他黄金饰品门店销售状况看起来也不错。记者注意到，当日，北京西单大悦城二楼的菜百首饰、中国黄金、老凤祥等门店聚集的区域，顾客也是络绎不绝，颇具人气，尤其是对比位于同楼层电梯口但鲜少有人问津的服装门店。

西单大悦城黄金门店。

事实上，目前黄金不仅不是“白菜价”，价格已经达到历史高位。公开数据显示，2023年全年黄金价格已经累计上涨约13%。有网友告诉记者，自己在1999年购买的黄金饰品的价格仅为88元/克。而从菜百首饰卖场记者了解到，12月29日，菜百首饰足金999饰品价格已经达到612元/克，相比8月15日575元/克的价格，上涨了37元/克。

高价似乎并不能让人作罢，整个市场似乎呈现出了一种越涨越买的情绪；部分消费者一边“望洋兴叹”，一边摩拳擦掌，向记者表示正在蹲守降价节点以入手。

除了黄金饰品消费市场一片火热，实体黄金投资市场也保持着较高的热度。记者注意到，当日，北京菜百首饰总店四楼的投资金条柜台也是挤满了顾客。

有顾客仅在柜台前停留些许，就“阔绰”出手购入了100克的投资金条。以当日菜百投资基础金价480.7元/克，人工费10元/克来计算，100克投资金条的总价为49070元。据柜台工作人员介绍，菜百首饰设有投资金条回收业务，在购买凭证齐全的情况下，回收的价格为实时的投资基础金价，回收人工费为2元/克。

菜百首饰投资金条柜台。

“大妈”群体仍是购买主力之一。有受访者向记者表示：“北京大妈们的收入很少受互联网等冲击，在当下的股票、房地产市场行情之下，他们不炒股，也不买房了，买黄金最靠谱。”记者注意到，门店现场大妈们或三两成群，或搀扶着老伴伫立于柜台。

2013年大妈群体曾经受疯狂购买黄金而高位站岗，而往日的伤口似乎已经愈合。有投资者向记者表示，大妈们高位站岗时金价为每克300多元，如今基础金价已经接近500元/每克，曾经的高位站岗在都已经不复存在。

后市涨跌众说纷纭

对于黄金的未来走势，各界众说纷纭。有业内人士公开表示，黄金未来肯定还会涨价，涨到1000元/克都有可能。有珠宝门店从业者表示：“做珠宝20年，金价从96元/克上涨到历史新高的496元/克，我认为买黄金没有技巧，全靠买得早。”

尽管大妈们愈挫愈勇，部分投资者仍对于购买黄金保持谨慎态度。有位卖房买黄金的投资者向记者表示，其以378元/克购置的4斤多黄金，已经在金价465元/克的时候出手。主要原因是其看跌黄金，“感觉金价肯定要降，可能降到420元/克”。

缩短时间线来看，国际金价保持高位震荡。12月4日Comex期货黄金价格达到2152.3美元/盎司新高后，一周内又回落至1987.9美元的低点，随后近日再次企稳回升，目前达到2050美元/盎司附近。

影响黄金价格上涨的因素到底有哪些，其中最重要的因素是什么？黄金价格还会持续上涨吗？

近年来，世界各国都在大量储备黄金。世界黄金协会称，2023年10月，各国央行继续大举购买黄金，全球官方黄金储备量一个月里净增加42吨。同时，2023年12月7日，国家外汇管理局发布的数据显示，截至2023年11月末，中国央行的黄金储备报约2226.4吨，环比增加约11.82吨，已经连续第13个月增加。

北京时间12月14日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会发布声明，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%之间不变。业内纷纷猜测，美联储降息周期或将在明年上半年开启。

对此，有人分析认为，金价上涨最大的原因是各国央行大量储备黄金。财经博主孙韬煊公开表示，在今年美国加息市场流动性较弱的情况下，金价上涨是更多是受到了各国央行的带动。同时，现在金价达到历史高位，金价的涨幅已经包含了美联储降息的预期了，如果，明年美联储真的降息了，金价并不一定会上涨，但是，美联储没有降息，金价大概率会下跌。

而某全球著名咨询公司商品战略顾问总监潘俊告诉《华夏时报》记者：“2024年金价走势的预测存在不确定性，因为金价的走势受到包括经济发展、地缘政治局势、货币政策等因素的影响。2024年金价的具体走势。需要密切关注相关因素的变化。黄金消费市场走势可能受到经济增长、人民收入水平、文化传统等因素的影响；黄金投资市场走势则可能受到全球经济形势、地缘政治风险、通胀预期等因素的影响，各自的具体走势需要根据相关因素的变化来判断，不可一概而论。”

不过，总的来说看涨的声音似乎更加占据主力。其中，星图金融研究院研究员武泽伟告诉《华夏时报》记者，12月FOMC会议之后，美联储转向降息基本确定，目前金价中的确已经计入了对于美联储降息的部分预期。而在影响金价上涨的各项因素中，美联储进入降息周期，成为未来金价上涨最确定、最有力的因素。各国央行持续购入黄金，提高黄金在外汇储备中所占的比例对金价起到了托底的作用。

“美联储降息背景下，2024年金价大概率会震荡上涨。不过，市场仍会博弈美联储降息的时点、力度、频率，加大金价的波动，央行每月购金力度也会对金价产生较大的影响。而在黄金大概率趋势性上涨的情况下，预计黄金的消费市场和投资市场都会保持高景气度。”武泽伟分析者道。

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