The Fed's Market Footprint

如果政府成为了主要的买家，那市场还成其为市场吗？这正迅速成为资产领域投资者需要考虑的一个切实问题，因为政府正在对资产市场大举干预。这甚至影响到了股市，比如，对政府未来干预的猜测就已成为影响银行估值的重要因素。不过受影响最大的莫过于信贷市场。最近几个月，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)已制定多套计划支撑去年受到重创的债券市场。政府救助是暂时性的安排，目的是为债券发行人重新打开市场，哄回私人买家。不过投资者也面临着苦恼和担心：政府不能永远支撑资产价格，政府干预的时间越久，投资者就会越来越质疑它继续支撑市场的意愿还剩多少。部分干预措施的明智与否就已经受到了人们的质疑。眼下美联储尚未显示出罢手的迹象。美联储本周说，将把5个流动性支持方案的有效期延长六个月，至10月底结束。虽然美联储资产负债表规模已扩大逾一倍，资产在一年内增加了1.1万亿美元，不过它的胃口似乎还不止于此。而且流动性计划的支持者们称，这些计划已开始初见成效。比如，截至1月28日当周，美联储商业票据融资安排(CPFF)规模下降超过1,000亿美元，表明部分发行人已经能够不通过政府，直接以较低的价格向私人买家销售商业票据。同时，政府干预可能也有助于银行发债市场的解冻。接受了纳税人250亿美元救助贷款的高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)上周顺利发行了20亿美元无担保10年期债券。不过问题在于，这些例子并不能说明太多情况。私人投资者清楚，一旦发行方遇到问题，它们随时可能回归政府救助计划。而且其中还存在一个不小的风险，即政府救助方案可能迫使债券收益率降至不可持续的低水平，从而进一步破坏他们试图加以修复的市场。这一点可能吓退许多私人投资者。那些购买了长期债券的投资者可能在政府从市场抽身时受到沉重一击。比如上月，美联储花了近700亿美元购买房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)担保的抵押贷款支持证券，推动30年期债券收益率跌破4.2%。之后这些债券遭到抛售，目前的收益率已升至4.75%。FTN Financial的吉姆•沃格尔(Jim Vogel)称，在4%-4.5%的收益率水平，私人投资者对抵押贷款支持证券的买盘不可能持续（如果存在买盘的话），以往根本没有过在这些水平的成功投资先例。政府的买进进一步扭曲了部分资产的价格，不过投资者应当牢记，终有一天，市场力量会王者归来。Peter Eavis相关阅读美联储货币互换举措将限制美元涨幅 2009-02-04美联储 PK 国债投资者 2009-02-03美联储准备买进美国国债 2009-01-29美联储提高警惕 防救助资金滥用 2009-01-26 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'UBS'));瑞士银行英文名称：UBS AG (ADS)总部地点：瑞士(Switzerland)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：UBSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'GE'));通用电气公司英文名称：General Electric Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：GEdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'RBS'));Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RBSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'C'));花旗集团英文名称：Citigroup Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：Cdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'UL'));Unilever Plc (ads)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：ULdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'UN'));荷兰联合利华公司英文名称：Unilever N.V. (ADS)总部地点：荷兰(Netherlands)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：UNdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'FNM'));Fannie Mae总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：FNMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'SATS'));Echostar Corp.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：SATSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'SIRI'));Sirius XM Radio Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：SIRIdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'UNA.AE'));Unilever N.v.总部地点：荷兰(Netherlands)上市地点：AMS股票代码：UNcdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'RBS.LN'));苏格兰皇家银行集团英文名称：Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RBSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'ULVR.LN'));英国联合利华公司英文名称：Unilever PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：ULVRdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日14:09', 'UBSN.VX'));瑞士银行英文名称：UBS AG总部地点：瑞士(Switzerland)上市地点：VTX股票代码：UBSN

Is a market really a market if the government is the main buyer?That is fast becoming a pertinent question for investors in asset classes where the government is intervening heavily. It even affects equities. For example, guesswork on future government intervention is a big driver of bank valuations.But most of the impact comes in the credit markets. In recent months, the Federal Reserve has set up several programs to support debt markets that fell apart last year. Government support is meant to be temporary -- aimed at reopening markets for debt issuers and coaxing back private buyers.But there is a nagging fear for investors: The government can't support prices forever. The longer the government intervenes, the more investors will question its will to continue buying. Already, the wisdom of certain interventions is being questioned.For now, the Fed shows no signs of backing off. This week, it said five of its liquidity programs will expire at the end of October, a six-month extension.And though the Fed has more than doubled the size of its balance sheet, adding $1.1 trillion of assets in a year, it seems to have plenty more appetite.What's more, supporters of the programs say they are starting to work. For instance, the size of the Fed's Commercial Paper Funding Facility dropped by more than $100 billion for the week ended Jan. 28, suggesting some issuers were able to bypass the government and sell to private buyers at cheaper rates.Meanwhile, government action may be helping the market for bank debt to thaw. Goldman Sachs Group currently has $25 billion of taxpayer-backed debt but sold $2 billion of unguaranteed 10-year notes last week.The problem is, these examples don't prove much. Private investors know issuers can always run back to government programs if they hit trouble.And a big risk is that government programs further damage the markets they are trying to fix by forcing bond yields to unsustainably low levels. This could scare off private buyers. Those that do buy long-dated bonds could get a nasty shock when the government steps out of the market.For instance, last month, the Fed spent nearly $70 billion buying mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- helping push yields on 30-year paper below 4.2%. They have since sold off and now yield 4.75%.'Private buying will not be sustained, if it occurs at all, for mortgage securities yielding 4% to 4.5%,' says Jim Vogel of FTN Financial. 'There is simply no precedent for successful mortgage investments at those levels.'As government buying increasingly distorts some asset prices, investors should remember that, one day, market forces will return to the fore.Peter Eavis