Recently, supermarkets and shopping malls around the world have seen a boom in people rushing to buy daily necessities. Everyone frantically hoards rice flour oil and other materials, some supermarkets have hundreds of shopping carts are not enough, queue up to check out or even wait for more than two hours, what is more frightening is that this momentum has swept through many cities, everyone despite dissuasion, crowds of people rushed into the supermarket, there is a great "end of the world" before the arrival of the situation.
Even on the media platform, some network promoters with ulterior motives have wantonly spread "rumors" and used the "first aid kit" issued by the government and the notification documents of state departments as gimmicks to continue to fuel the waves and promote the panic of the people, which is simply unforgivable!
Think about it, we have seen a lot of such scenes, such as the "SARS" period some people claimed that eating white radish can prevent "SARS", so the white radish was fried to 10 yuan a pound of "sky-high price"; a few years ago, some people rumored that there was a "salt shortage" in China, some people frantically bought salt, some people bought dozens of boxes, and now ten years have passed, I don't know if everyone's reserve of salt is now eaten.
No matter what disaster is faced, what is terrible is not the disaster itself, but the fear and retreat of the disaster, thus forming a panic mentality, which is called "disturbing the hearts of the army" in the army and "fearing that the world will not be chaotic" in the country.
Returning to the question we are talking about, why do people stockpil rice flour oil in the near future? There are two reasons, one is that it over-interprets the "Circular on Doing a Good Job in Ensuring the Supply and Price Stabilization of the Market for Vegetables and Other Necessities of Life This Winter and Next Spring" issued by the Ministry of Commerce, which was originally a normal notice to ensure supply and stabilize the price of vegetables, but was involved with Taiwan by people with ulterior motives, claiming that there may be "military operations" in the Taiwan Strait, and the people should reserve grain and make "wartime preparations." The second is that the temperature in winter is low, which is the outbreak period of the epidemic, and once we have a lockdown, we reserve grain for emergency needs.
In the face of the public's panic, the Ministry of Commerce had no choice but to urgently "debunk the rumors" and issue a notice document again: do not over-interpret or even misread the previous documents. However, from the current public opinion, everyone is more inclined to the first point. So in view of the first point, on the Taiwan issue, is it necessary for us to reserve materials?
You don't have to.
We analyze from three aspects: First, is it necessary for us to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue, and second, once we adopt the form of force, how will the United States react? Third, if a military conflict breaks out, can Taiwan pose a threat to the mainland and even cause certain losses to the people's production and life?
On the first issue, we first look at the attitude of the state, which is mentioned in Article 5 of the "Anti-National Separatism Law": Realizing the reunification of the motherland by peaceful means is most in line with the fundamental interests of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and the state has realized peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the greatest efforts. On the Taiwan issue, we do not want the lives of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to be ruined and strive to resolve the Taiwan issue by peaceful means, but we will not give up the use of force under the premise of threatening national sovereignty and reunification.
So is it time for us to "use force"? Multifaceted analysis is required. Here is an example, during the Three Kingdoms period, between Wei shu and Wu, the strength of the State of Wei was the strongest, with a land area of more than 4 million square kilometers, a population of 4.43 million, and a military strength of more than 400,000, followed by the State of Wu, with an area of 1.45 million square kilometers, a population of 2.3 million, a military strength of more than 200,000, and the shu state was the weakest, with a population of 940,000 people and a military strength of only about 100,000.
But even the weakest Shu state, during the Three Kingdoms period, "suppressed and fought" against the State of Wei, a total of 5 Northern Expeditions, the State of Wei was forced to close the city gates and strictly guard against death, why would the strongest State of Wei fear a small State of Shu? Is it really impossible to beat? Otherwise, from a geopolitical point of view, the northern part of the State of Wei is Xianbei, from time to time to invade the border, the northeast is surrounded by the Warlord Gongsun Yuan of Liaodong, and the State of Wei is looking at the Tiger, the south is the State of Wu, the west is the State of Shu, each direction needs to be guarded by troops, 400,000 troops correspond to four directions, the Army facing the State of Shu is only about 100,000 people, and because of the harsh climate and low combat effectiveness, it is normal to be suppressed and fought by the State of Shu.
However, in the later period, when the State of Wei pacified Xianbei, eliminated Gongsun Yuan, and at the same time blockaded Eastern Wu south of the Yangtze River and concentrated on dealing with the State of Shu, the State of Shu was destroyed in an instant.
Looking at our situation again, among the neighboring countries, the current "jumping happiest" is India, in the early stage, India in the border area of 200,000 troops clamoring for China, recently, India once again provoked us with the border dispute, in the two sides of the military commander-level talks without sincerity, constantly put forward unreasonable demands, at the same time the Indian media continue to "spread rumors", the Indian vice president of the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" "visit", recently India tested the "Agni-5" intercontinental missile, and conducted "airborne combat" exercises on the Sino-Indian border.
In addition to India, do not forget the "Diaoyu Island dispute" 9 years ago, this year the relevant Japanese government officials once again tried to "forcibly land on the island", although it ended in failure, but its wolf ambitions were clearly revealed, in addition, due to the overall situation in the Middle East, whether the northwest region will face the threat of hostile forces is unknown; in the south, will the dispute between the South China Sea islands be staged again, the Strait of Malacca, as our energy artery, bears nearly 60% of the oil transportation, is there a risk of being blocked? If the Taiwan Strait is involved, is there a risk of war on the Korean Peninsula?
These are all issues that "involve the whole body" and need to be considered urgently. From a military point of view, the most threatening is India. Especially after the end of the US-Japan-India-Australia quadripartite talks, India's actions are more frequent and ambitious, who gives India the courage? There is no doubt that it is the United States, so what is the flare gun of The Indian operation? Most likely, it is the Taiwan Strait.
At present, the Taiwan Strait side has pinned down our most advanced equipment, the most sophisticated troops, and the greatest energy.
Looking at the second question, if we solve the Taiwan issue, will the United States intervene? In a previous article, "Why Are We Still Waiting for Taiwan?" Because what we are afraid of is never the United States, but self-inflicted damage, and after a detailed analysis, we have come to a conclusion: the possibility of the United States intervening in the Taiwan issue by force is extremely low. Recently, from Biden's statement, this conclusion has been verified to a certain extent.
On November 2, Biden was asked by reporters in an interview with the media: Is the United States worried about the outbreak of "armed conflict" with China? Biden returns: I am not worried, the United States and China are "competing", not necessarily conflicting, the United States has no reason to have a "conflict" with China. Biden said he did not want and did not expect "physical conflict" (with China).
A while ago, a certain US think tank conducted a wargame deduction, and the report showed that if the mainland "uses force" to resolve the Taiwan issue, the US means are "almost zero." It once again verified the possibility of US military intervention in the Taiwan issue. From a military point of view, with the blessing of aircraft carriers, land-based missiles, fighter jets, medium- and long-range anti-access systems and other equipment, our military strength can effectively prevent the intervention of foreign forces within 1,000 kilometers or even 1,500 kilometers offshore.
We have also analyzed the way the United States has adopted economic sanctions to strike at us afterwards, but China's economy has become integrated with the world, coupled with the huge consumer market and the blessing of the "world's most complete" industrial system, any country's economic blockade and sanctions against us are "hurting me eight hundred, self-inflicted losses of one thousand." Russia was not afraid before, so what are we afraid of?
Let's look at the third question, the Taiwan side. What is Taiwan's military strength? Looking at the strength of the troops, since three years ago, Taiwan changed from the "conscription system" to the "conscription system", under the policy of voluntary conscription, Taiwan's military resources have dropped sharply, few people are willing to become soldiers, Taiwan's total strength of 215,000 people, in order to meet the basic "defense" needs, the current few years of conscription, Taiwan is still short of about 17,000 people.
In order to meet the demand for troop strength, Taiwan has tried its best to shorten the time of military service, from the original two years to more than 1 year, and the technical soldiers from 3 years to 2 years. Before entering service, technical soldiers need to undergo several months of training, and the actual service time is only about 10 months, which is equivalent to a military training.
Taiwan even came up with the "weekend fighter" system, organizing officers and men who have retired from the army within 8 years to "enter the camp for a short time", while constantly reducing the difficulty of training, training "special soldiers" in the "swimming pool", and even using female soldiers with better images to make "recruitment posters" to attract young people, and at the same time "luring" with high salaries. What about combat effectiveness? Here is an example, before the Taiwan Marine Corps in Kaohsiung Peach Garden Beach training, there was a rubber boat overturning accident, 7 soldiers fell into the sea, and finally 2 dead and 1 wounded, it is said that the water at the site of the incident is very deep, 1.5 meters ·
But even in this case, the public still has little response. If we change to the mainland, presumably we will not use these "crooked ways and evil ways", and in the case of threats to national interests and sovereignty, will we have any conscripts? From the flood fight, anti-epidemic, earthquake relief and other events, we can see how many great retrogrades we have.
With the United States not interfering, is it difficult for us to resolve the Taiwan issue? At present, Taiwan's so-called "air force" has more than 30,000 troops, F-16 and other types of fighters are less than 700, and on the mainland, the number of military aircraft in active service is about 3,000, of which in addition to J-20, H-6K and other fighters, we also have powerful reconnaissance and early warning forces. In terms of the navy, Taiwan's so-called "navy" has about 38,000-56,000 people, more than 160 ships of various sizes, about 240,000 navy personnel on the mainland side, 2 of our aircraft carriers, more than 300 ships, we also have 10,000 tons of large drives 055, anti-aircraft destroyers 052c, "China Aegis" 052d, etc., the total tonnage of active ships is second only to the United States.
In other respects, we are famous for our missiles, the Dongfeng 21, 26 ballistic missiles, Eagle Strike 12, 18 anti-ship missiles, Long sword-10 cruise missiles, which are the strike forces that the United States is afraid of, and in the absence of military intervention by the United States, our settlement of the Taiwan issue can be said to be effortless, and at the same time, under the blockade of powerful anti-aircraft firepower in the South China Sea and the southeast coast, the possibility of Taiwan causing damage to the mainland is almost negligible.
With such a powerful motherland as the backing, what are we panicking? In the face of the general trend of the reunification of the motherland, what are we afraid of? At the moment of world changes and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, what are we shrinking?
There is really no need to hoard materials and engage in so-called "reserves."