Everything in the world is soaring, hyperinflation is happening, or it will change everything! But behind every round of inflation is the reshuffle of wealth, and only the prophetic can avoid stepping on the pit and even grasp the trend of salted fish turning over. Today, Prudential will unveil the puzzle of global inflation for you, as well as the three major sinkholes that ordinary people absolutely cannot enter in 2022.
2020 began with the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, but 2021 ended with a soaring price, these two things are actually a causal relationship, prices do not rise to see two aspects, one is the number of goods in circulation, the second is the number of currencies in circulation.
Beginning in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world, and almost all countries were not immune. As a result, the economies of many countries have been affected, the most direct of which is that the isolation of all employees has led to the suspension of factories, workers on holidays, and shops and entertainment facilities have closed their doors.
In the middle of this year, the news about the outbreak of the epidemic in India should have been seen, India such a manufacturing country, in the world is also a big world factory, many European and American products, are in India OEM production, especially some drugs, known as the "world pharmaceutical factory" india, the production of more than 20% of the world's generic drugs, after the outbreak of the epidemic in India, on the surface we saw everywhere corpses on the streets of India, but behind the rupture of the global industrial chain.
The same thing has happened in Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar and other countries, and even many of our large domestic enterprises have built factories and manufactured in these places, so whether it is industrial products, semiconductor products, pharmaceuticals, or even agricultural and sideline products, there has been a contraction in the supply chain, which has directly led to a significant reduction in the number of goods flowing into the market.
Especially in the United States, the feeling of supply chain shortage is the most obvious, first of all, the United States is a big consumer country, the vast majority of primary industrial products and daily consumer goods are imported, the overseas epidemic directly led to foreign factories can not be as before to receive orders, it is said that now the United States domestic toilet paper and other daily necessities are often out of stock, out of stock in turn exacerbated the panic of the people, many people began to grab goods, hoarding goods, and this irrational behavior has exacerbated the shortage of supply chains, this dead cycle is difficult to walk out.
On the one hand, there is the contraction of the global supply chain, and on the other hand, there is an infinitely loose release of water. During the epidemic, the world's major countries have released water fiercely, and I don't need to say that everyone knows it, and it can be said that it has created several historical maximums.
Taking the United States as an example, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2008, relying on a large number of treasury bonds to survive the difficulties, at that time, the issuance of US Treasury bonds did not exceed 5 trillion US dollars, and by this year, the scale of the Us foreign debt has exceeded 28 trillion, even to the point of asking Congress to meet to raise the US debt ceiling. The U.S. government releases water, ostensibly to domestic enterprises, the people a certain amount of support, in the short term, many American companies have received a large number of government subsidies, it is also very easy to get cheap loan funds in financial institutions, the people, many people take subsidies than work to earn more money, but in this process, also brewing a history-making inflation.
The price increase tide in 2021 should have been felt by everyone, from oil, automobiles, to daily consumer goods, food, there are a certain range of price increases, from the world's point of view, our domestic price increase is still relatively moderate, the United States on the other side of the ocean, to the second half of this year, the consumer index CPI has been maintained at more than 5%, according to the forecast of domestic CITIC Securities analysts, by 2022 the us inflation level will reach a peak, more severe than this year.
Inflation is very harmful to the economy, and it is also fatal to us ordinary people, a large-scale inflation, many families for years, or even decades of hard-earned money may be lost in inflation. Inflation has most directly led to the devaluation of the currency and the decline in the purchasing power of the people, we now look at the number of deposits has no use, 10 years ago 1 million can buy a 100 square meters of house in Shanghai, Beijing and other big cities, now, Shanghai, Beijing 100 square meters of house has increased to 10 million, increased tenfold, and 1 million, not to mention Beijing and Shanghai, even the domestic third-tier cities can not buy the house. In this example, if you measure the house, 1 million has depreciated by 90% in ten years, which is the currency shrinkage caused by inflation.
Many people know that the currency depreciation is getting faster and faster, there are also many friends, thinking of exchanging the cash in their hands for other assets, or looking for some better financial channels, since this year, give me private messages to ask investment planning friends are very many, many friends ask me a lot of questions, such as some people ask, can you buy bitcoin to preserve the value, can you buy school district housing to preserve the value, ah, there are too many problems, I really can't reply one by one. 2021 is also about to pass, today I specially did this episode of the show, is to tell you about the next year, there are a few pits do not touch, touched although you have a chance, may skyrocket, but the remaining nine thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine, ordinary people are going to be unlucky. Why? Below, I will explain to you one by one:
First, don't blindly make cross-border financial investments. The content of cross-border investment here is very extensive, including cross-border stock markets, such as US stocks, but also virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and so on.
Many friends ask me, the United States has been in the bull market for ten years, people's capital market is so stable, can you buy something, do not buy anything else, buy the leading companies in the United States, is not the risk is not high. There are also many people who see many cases of getting rich by hyping bitcoin on the Internet, and their hearts are also itching, they are on the virtual currency, and they can't get out of the dream of getting rich.
The original intention of these friends is understandable, but I also want to remind you here that doing these transnational investments is very risky, mainly for two reasons:
First of all, let's first talk about legality and compliance, and now our country has declared that the investment in virtual currency is illegal in our country, and those Internet brokers engaged in US stock investment have also been regulated to seize the problem, and have exposed the existence of hidden dangers such as lack of licenses and improper protection of personal information. So ah, everyone invests in U.S. stocks, the legitimacy of investing in overseas virtual currency is problematic, this problem is big, the legitimacy is problematic, which means that once you have an accident, there is no place to appeal, nor can you protect your rights and interests through judicial channels. Therefore, in such a big environment, we must take the lead with a steady word and do not have a gambler mentality. Unless you can afford to lose, you have 10 million in your hand, I take 1 million out to fight, no more, no more, no harm. Otherwise, ordinary people, I advise you, don't touch it, because you can't afford to lose, don't ruin your family because of this, and your wife and daughter are separated.
Second, let's talk about rationality. Many policies are already in the stage of life extension, high debt, domestic economic recovery is not as expected, social problems are frequent, foreign policy is becoming more and more unacceptable, all of which have led to the gradual weakening of the Hegemony of the United States in the world. Whether it is investing in the US stock market, or investing in other US dollar assets, they are bound to the national fortune of the United States, the United States has been in power in the world for many years, an epidemic has come down, all the domestic problems have been exposed, even the small follow-up of the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries, but also gradually sell US dollar assets in the capital market, why should we have to fight against money and take over at a high level?
The second pit that must be avoided is to invest in some domestic properties. Why I say here is part, because there are many types of real estate investment, many people buy houses because of rigid demand, they want to live, this is of course OK, but there are a large number of friends, buying a house is for investment, is to speculate on the heat, in order to earn the difference, this situation, I advise everyone not to participate. Some people may say, my stock fund does not understand, a buy will fall and sell on the rise, and there is no other investment channels, money in the hand and more and more depreciation, only to buy a house is the simplest. If you insist on investing in real estate at this time, then the following types of houses should not be bought:
The first category is the house developed by a developer with weak financial strength and general reputation. Since 2020, the policy regulation of the real estate market has exceeded 100 times, and many of them have been introduced at the national level, marking that the state's attitude towards this industry has completely changed. In particular, now the relevant departments have drawn three red lines for real estate developers, the scale of liabilities of enterprises has been limited, and those real estate developers whose financial strength is not strong enough, the shareholder background is very general, and the scale is not large, it is more difficult to raise funds in financial institutions such as banks in the future, once the capital chain is broken, these enterprises may go bankrupt in the debt crisis, so ah, this kind of developer's development of the house everyone do not touch, once an accident occurs, you can not even cry.
The second category to avoid is school district housing investment. School district housing investment refers to those who buy houses not for their own children to buy this school district house, but for the purpose of speculation and earning the difference. This year there has also been a major reform in the domestic education policy, a very obvious change is that our country has taken educational fairness as the top priority, the future to take various measures to ensure educational fairness, school district housing is originally in conflict with educational fairness, rich people can buy a house can let their children enjoy better educational resources, and people without money can think of few ways, so that the gap between rich people and ordinary people will become larger and larger, the country of course to avoid the occurrence of these phenomena, so, The sustainability of the school district house is very problematic, once the policy changes greatly, the attributes of the school district house are not there, the depreciation of the house is not a little, for example, there are now some places that have implemented a slice enrollment policy, those who bought a house at a high price can only think that they are unlucky, a house of five or six million, a loss of one or two million is only a matter of a few days.
Finally, I urge you to avoid doing high-debt expansion, including high-debt entrepreneurship and high-debt investment. Many people say that today's young people have no momentum, unlike the young people in the seventies and eighties, they all want to make a career, and many people have the courage to resign and go to the sea to start a business. This sentence reflects the reality of society to a certain extent, but it cannot all be blamed on today's young people.
In the seventies and eighties, the work package distribution, the house may also be a unit, the individual's work, the education of the children have a good guarantee, to put it bluntly, the pressure on the individual is relatively small, many people can of course fight, fight, now many domestic large enterprise bosses, are in that era began to go to the sea to do business, such as Wang Jianlin, such as Cao Dewang. But now, young people want to get married, most families will first go to buy a house, the house means a mortgage, many people are young and carry a lot of mortgages, you let these people go to the sea to start a business, to participate in high-risk investment, it is certainly not realistic.
At the same time, the current environment does not support high-debt entrepreneurship and investment. Take the investment thing, the current financial market has been completely different from more than a decade, decades ago, can you imagine that one day the deposit will not be completely safe and secure? Not only that, this year, after the transition period of the new asset management regulations has arrived, the bank's financial management will not be able to be rigidly paid, and we ordinary people have also bid farewell to the era of being able to buy capital-protected financial management, all of which are telling us that the current market is more and more emphasizing the refinement of the division of labor and emphasizing the professionalism of investment, especially with the reduction of the demographic dividend, the era of real estate dividends is gone, the entire market in the future, the risk is universal, but the opportunity is a small number of people can seize. I don't support everyone to start a business, to invest, if you have the ability, the conditions, can make the enterprise bigger, it is a good thing for the country and the people, I just don't support everyone to do these things in high debt when the conditions are not enough, the preparation is not enough.
Entrepreneurship and investment actually need a very pure mentality, once you are saddled with debt, you have a lot of pressure, bent on making money, you will always worry: if you fail, what to do with these debts, if you can't make money, how to account for it at home, the more you think so, the more difficult it is to calmly analyze and calmly cope, this will affect, and even change the decisions made when starting a business and investing, the mentality is not good, and it is more difficult to do anything!
Well, the end of the article, to make a summary for everyone, 2021 is about to pass, a lot of major events have happened, it is worth our good analysis and summary, in 2022, high inflation may continue, we ordinary people must guard their money bags, the three things mentioned above can not be touched or try not to touch, the above is all the content of this issue, there is not comprehensive, leave me a message in the comment area, we will see you in the next issue. #Entrepreneurship Exchange ##投资理财 #