The climate situation is exacerbated by "chronic" problems related to water distribution and dilapidated water infrastructure in Central Asia. Experts warn that in the future, drought will become the norm in all Central Asian countries.
Do these countries have enough time to avoid this? Why does water scarcity lead to power outages in the area?
< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="11" > farmers to experience high temperatures
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Since the beginning of June, temperatures in Central Asian countries have risen abnormally. In some parts of Tajikistan, the air warms to 48 degrees, Uzbekistan 44 degrees, Kazakhstan 40 degrees and Kyrgyzstan 37 degrees.
In July, the weather continued to be hot, and the amount of water in the river became less. Thus, according to the Data of the National Hydrometeorological Service of Kazakhstan, 6 of the country's 14 oblasts are facing severe drought. President Tokayev drew attention to the plight of the peasants.
"The situation in Mangistao and Kyzyllonda regions is particularly difficult due to weather conditions. In Mangistaw state alone, 3,000 cattle fell," the head of state said.
Due to water scarcity, farmers in Kyrgyzstan's Chuhe Oblast may not have a harvest. Back in June, of the 100,000 hectares sown, about 6,000 hectares dried up. The National Water Authority warned that shallower rivers this month will only intensify.
Drought in Central Asia does not only threaten agriculture. Alexei Maslov, dean of the School of Oriental Studies at the Higher School of Economics, said the consequences could be much more serious.
"When the temperature exceeds 40 degrees, the reservoir begins to dry up. The water level in Toktogur, Kyrgyzstan's largest reservoir, is already alarmingly low: less than 9 billion cubic meters, which is normally 19.5 billion. This is a warning for farmers. Drought is dangerous and threatens hydropower. For Kyrgyzstan, hydroelectric power plants provide up to 40 percent of the country's internal demand. Another consequence of drought is fires. There is a 30% chance of occurrence. He explained.
Experts acknowledge that this year's drought is inevitable, but what is more worrying is that the phenomenon is becoming the norm and intensifying year by year.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="55" > habit of living in scarcity</h1>
The problem of water scarcity in the Central Asian countries is affected by a variety of factors at the same time. The first is the high demand for irrigation in agriculture. Albert Belogradov, an expert at the Institute for Central Asia, said the region's main crops – cotton, rice and melons – need to be watered daily.
"The wear and tear of irrigation systems created during the Soviet era led to huge water losses (up to 50%). The situation is adversely affected by the water system for hydropower facilities, where water accumulates in reservoirs during the summer and is not accessible to farmers. To generate additional electricity, water is discharged into the river in winter when watering is no longer necessary. He added.
The expert went on to say that with the rapid growth of the population of Central Asia (about 49 million at the end of the Soviet period, it is now more than 75 million), the increase in industrial production and the expansion of crop areas, the demand for water will increase, and the scarcity of water will also increase.
Nor should we forget the issue of global climate change. By the end of the century, Central Asia could warm up by 7 degrees. Albert Belogradov stressed that this would lead to desertification of the territory and the drying up of rivers and lakes.
The rise in average annual temperatures will accelerate the melting of the glaciers that fill the rivers and reservoirs in the region. The two main waterways, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, could shrink by 10-15% by 2030. Aziz Nyaz, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that as a result, the productivity of hydropower plants will decline (according to the World Bank's forecast, it will fall by 20% by 2050).
Maslov said the unequal distribution of water resources is another cause of the shortage. Water scarcity is most acute in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as they are located downstream of major rivers.
"Our water supply depends mainly on the economic policies of other countries. Syr Darya – depending on Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Chu and Taras rivers depend on Kyrgyzstan. The Ili River depends on China, and the Ural River depends on Russia. If they don't share water, we run into shortages. Badashev, a former member of the Kazakhstan Water Resources Commission, said.
The situation is better in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Albert Belogradov said up to 85 percent of the region's surface water is formed on the territory of these countries.
Even so, countries will not be able to avoid water shortages. Principal investigator Andrei Kazantsev, a professor of world economics and politics, added that the antiquated water infrastructure, which has not been upgraded since the Soviet era, is to blame.
Mikhail Borgov, head of the Surface Water Simulation Laboratory at the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that to some extent, the problem for all countries in the region is the inefficiency of irrigation and land reclamation technologies.
According to him, modern irrigation methods, such as drip irrigation, are only used on a small part of agricultural land. Flood irrigation is used in all other regions.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="57" > awaiting overhaul</h1>
Albert Belogradov believes that the Central Asian countries can overcome water scarcity only if they coordinate their efforts in both technical and political terms.
In the first case, countries must modernize irrigation systems in the "downstream" countries (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) and build new hydraulic structures in the "upstream" countries (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) to control the flow of water.
Such projects require significant financial investment. No country in the region can offer this level of investment on its own. Therefore, the most correct step is to establish a regional body to manage the entire water sector.
Igor Savin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that in the short term, the countries of Central Asia have two options. The first is to minimize water loss by switching to drip irrigation. The second is the abandonment of water-intensive crops, mainly cotton and rice.
"We can go the Way of China, dig deep wells, pump water from the depths of the Earth. But this is expensive, and the water produced is drinking water and not suitable for irrigation. Another option is to divert and widen rivers in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan so that they can better supply space. But this also involves the issue of funding. Alexei Maslov thought.
Source: New Observations of Tajikistan