Reference News Network reported on September 8 (text/Chen Rui)
In addition to the traditional power struggle, there is a vague trend that is very worthy of attention, that is, whether the faction-based presidential election will usher in an end, and will the "Abe Aso" system in the past decade be completely changed? The situation is delicate and interesting, very similar to the famous curtain-down movement in Japanese history. Could the "Battle of the Fallen Curtain" of the "Sachang Alliance" have to be repeated yesterday?
The "Sasaga Alliance", the Fallen Alliance between satsuma and choshu domains during the Meiji Restoration in Japan, was concluded in 1866 at the end of the Edo shogunate era (the end of the shogunate) with Sakamoto Ryoma, an activist of the Fallen Shogunate movement, as an intermediary between Satsuma domain and Choshu domain. The powerful combination of the forces of the Fallen Curtain made the armies of Satsuma and Choshu the main force of the Fallen Forces in the future.
One of the reasons why Shigeru Ishiba (former LDP secretary general), who has been hesitant to wait and see, has attracted much attention is that he may abandon the election in favor of the most popular minister of administrative reform, Taro Kono. According to the analysis of Japanese media personality Kenji Goto, Shigeru Ishiba and Kono joined forces to change the presidential election from a factional unit to a presidential election in which individual members vote independently, which is like a modern version of the "Sasaga Alliance" and is very similar to the end-of-curtain movement. If the Ishiba clique elected Kono to establish power, it would mean breaking the "shogunate system" – the political framework of Japan that former Prime Minister Abe and Aso Finance had maintained for nine years.
On September 19, 2018, local time, In Tokyo, Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (right) and Finance Minister Taro Aso attended a rally for the LDP's presidential election in Akihabara. (Visual China)
For a long time, the largest Hosoda faction (96 people) and the second faction (53 members) in the party, which Abe was born from and controlled, cooperated to control about 40% of the LDP's parliamentarians, which is where Abe and Aso's strength and strength lie, and has always influenced the LDP and The political situation in Japan. However, in this presidential election, it seems that it is difficult to completely control the entire faction, because the president election is immediately after the House of Representatives election, and the young and strong parliamentarians with a weak election foundation will give the most priority to which new president will be beneficial to their own election.
Even though Abe has the intention and instructions to support Takaichi Sanae, some of the young legislators who account for about one-third of the Hosoda faction will support Kono. The Aso faction also split into the Shōjo faction that supported Kono and the Elder Faction that supported Kishida Fumio. If Abe and Aso try to force Painai to obey orders, there is a danger of water reversal.
Indeed, the 9-year-long "reign of Abe Aso" has placed heavy factions over individuals, which has also made the party, especially the young and strong parliamentarians, unhappy for a long time. Takashi Yamashita, a member of the House of Representatives of the Ishibath faction, complained that the presidential election was always decided by factions, and such obedience was unacceptable to party members and the people. In addition, the members of the Ishibuchi faction who agreed to join forces with Kono were also very much looking forward to the Kono Ishiba, believing that "kono and ishibath are the strongest and can achieve an overwhelming victory in the upcoming House elections", which is also in line with Kono's strategy: to attract the support of young and elite members who care about the House of Representatives election.
People's hearts fluctuate and people's minds change, which is a rare opportunity for the Kono-Ishibashi combination.
Historically, the success of the "Sacho Alliance" is inseparable from a very key figure, that is, the middleman Sakamoto Ryoma. So, who is the character of this "Sakamoto Ryoma" now? Japanese analysts pointed out that Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi had strongly supported Shigeru Ishiba, and Koizumi and Kono also had a good relationship. In addition, he was also a close confidant of Prime Minister Suga, and he was indignant and even wept at Suga's abandonment of the election. No wonder some media speculate that the "alliance" concept seems to flash behind Suga's shadow.
However, Kono also has a complicated mentality about whether to take over the olive branch that the Ishibuchi sect may extend. For Kono, things are not so simple, although he has a certain multiplier effect on his own election, but he is also worried that if he gets too close to Ishiba, he will offend Abe and Aso, after all, the relationship between "Abe Aso" and Shigeru Ishiba (Shigeru Ishiba was involved in demanding Aso's ouster during the Aso cabinet; during the second Abe regime, Ishiba Shigeru repeatedly criticized the Abe regime) is well known. At the press conference on the 7th, when asked about Ishibashi considering supporting Kono, Kono did not respond positively, obviously with some scruples.
According to Japanese media, Abe seems to be quite jealous of the possibility of Ishiba and Kono joining forces. They believe that "if those two people unite, it is very likely that a trend will form at once." If Kono and Ishibata join forces in the LDP presidential election, the nine-year-long "Abe Aso rule" may collapse, and the new version of the "fallen curtain" will also succeed.
It remains to be seen where to go!
Source: Reference News Network