——Market Interpretation——
On Thursday (December 1st) in the European market, international oil prices continued to rise, soaring 10% overnight, as OPEC reached a production cut agreement for the first time in eight years! The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an agreement to cut production on Wednesday (November 30), and OPEC decided that member countries would collectively cut production by 4.5% per day (1.2 million b/d) from January 1, 2017, that is, to control the average daily production peak at 32.5 million b/d. Since then, most agencies believe that the OPEC agreement has pulled the "trigger" of the oil price rebound, making the oil market balance another big step, but still need to beware of the FREE ride of US shale oil production. Gold recovered slightly after hitting a new nearly 10-month low, although expectations of a rate hike in the dollar limited the rally. U.S. economic data on Wednesday maintained its recent strong momentum, and the market is optimistic about the pace of tightening next year.
——Intraday Market and Guidance Review——
Intraday crude oil since the opening of the $49 mark, continue to be boosted by production cuts directly upwards, rushing up to a high of $50.2, the beginning of the European session, crude oil began to be blocked to fall, fell sharply near the $49 mark, intraday timely guidance of customers to follow up, the target to see near the $50 mark, at the end of the European session, Iranian oil governor Zangane and then released good news: it is expected that after the implementation of OPEC production cuts, oil prices will be stable above $50 / barrel, crude oil has been boosted, once again near the $50 mark, And refresh the high point of $50.24, more than a single is also a smooth take profit out, intraday Shu Haowen analysis also said, near the 50 mark is a pressure, if continue to explore, oil prices are expected to continue to rise, so give up the idea of short short, but in the vicinity of $50.2 to continue to chase more, the target to see near $51, after the opening of the US market, crude oil continued to expand the rise, intraday continue to 50.5 guidance customers to make up more, the target is still 51 position unchanged, crude oil indeed continued to rise, more than 51 dollars near the profit out, again flipped! Once again, the importance of going with the flow is verified, and the "greed when others are afraid" is once again interpreted, or that sentence, support the bold, starve the timid!
——Summary——
A long order of 49 US dollars and 50 US dollars is profited out, and the profit is 1 US dollar;
More than $50.2, $50.5 plus position are all profited out at $51 position, with a profit of $1.3;
The total profit of the three orders is $2.3! U.S. crude oil fluctuates by 1 US dollar, and the Chinese merchants on this platform fluctuate by 100 points, making a profit of 2 US dollars and temporarily obtaining 200 points of profit!
——Analysis of recent crude oil operations——
Crude oil currently has no technical side to speak of, and the current technical side is also intact bullish form, no big bearish remarks come out, there is no effective blocked signal out, as long as the trend to operate on the line, or Shu Haowen said, do not in the market sharp rise or sharp decline, their own subjective speculation of the top or bottom of the market, otherwise will always miss the opportunity, never make money, you know, the market is not based on people's willpower for the transfer, how to go along with the market to do it, control the position, Take a good stop loss and take profit on the line, think so much about it!
Back to the market, the current oil price to the $51 mark nearby, the intraday increase is also relatively large, due to the time relationship, Shu Haowen is no longer recommended to chase more, the intraday profit has reached more than two dollars, contented, rest early, wait for tomorrow to fight again!
——Non-farm as scheduled——
Shu Haowen warmly reminded that the market is still paying attention to Friday's non-farm payrolls report and the Italian constitutional reform referendum over the weekend. Bloomberg's median outlook shows that non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 180,000 in November, up from +161,000; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.9%, unchanged; the average hourly wage in November is expected to be 0.2% m/m versus 0.4%; and the average hourly wage is expected to be 2.8%, flat last month. Shu Haowen believes that seasonal factors may make the number of employees exceed expectations. Due to the tight labor market, companies recruit scarce temporary workers in advance every year to prepare for the upcoming holiday season (Christmas, etc.), so such seasonal employment may drive up the number of jobs. There is also a degree of political risk that will affect the direction of gold, with markets confused that the government will fail in the December 4 referendum; Prime Minister Renzi has warned that the referendum could be as unexpected as the US election – which will raise enough political concerns to support gold.
——Investment Message——
In the investment market for so many years, Shu Haowen has encountered various types of investors, but many are very worried about their own empty orders when the market rises a little, and they worry about their own long orders when they fall a little, first of all, you have to remember that the entry point of the single is very important, not any point can enter and exit, you do not just find a point to operate, secondly, you go to do a good job of risk control, just catch a point on the full position operation, this is to find death! Do not have to make yourself so tired of investment, the author Shu Haowen timely push daily market analysis and skill interpretation, willing to accompany investors on this confused investment road all the way forward.
Contributor / Haowen Shu (Chief Special Analyst)