On June 21, local time, the US political news website Politico quoted 4 people familiar with the matter as saying that the Biden administration is considering using the so-called "forced labor" excuse to ban the United States from importing polysilicon, a key raw material for solar panels from China's Xinjiang region.
It's unclear when the U.S. government will take this action, or whether U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will impose an import ban on the entire Xinjiang region or take action against specific businesses.
Although a number of US congressmen and solar industry insiders have asked the Biden administration to take action for several months, some analysts pointed out that Chinese manufacturers account for 80% of global polysilicon production, of which manufacturers in Xinjiang account for 45% of the share, if the United States really bans the import of polysilicon products from Xinjiang, it is likely to hit the SUPPLY chain of the US solar industry and greatly delay Biden's clean energy plan.
The White House is considering issuing a suspension order
The people told Politico that the Biden administration is considering issuing a withhold release order that would allow U.S. Customs and Border Protection to seize any "imported product suspected of producing forced labor," while the department is studying a ban on polysilicon products throughout the Xinjiang region, but they may also choose specific factories or companies to take smaller action.
But congressional sources also told Politico that they had not received any briefing on what Customs and Border Protection would do. Typically, these agencies submit briefings before taking significant action. A Customs and Border Protection spokesman declined to answer whether the department was investigating the situation of specific entities.
Screenshot of politico's report
Over the past few months, a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the U.S. Congress has been urging Biden to impose import restrictions on polysilicon in Xinjiang, following former President Trump's crackdown on cotton, tomatoes and other products in Xinjiang. For example, Rep. Dan Kildee, a Democrat from Michigan, blatantly slandered China for practicing so-called "forced labor" and threatened to have "enough information" to take action.
Democrat Ron Wyden, chairman of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, also said he had separately raised the issue of banning xinjiang polysilicon imports in the Senate. Wyden claimed he did not have access to so-called "reliable information" about the Xinjiang region, so "aggressive and ruthless means are the solution to the problem."
Although these U.S. lawmakers actually cannot produce any material that would prove the existence of "forced labor," they still brazenly claim that there is "overwhelming evidence" that "forced labor" was used in polysilicon production in the Xinjiang region, saying that the import of these products "violates" the "prohibition on the import of goods mined, produced or manufactured by forced labor" in the US Tariff Act of 1930.
At the request of lawmakers, the White House has begun to consider banning the import of polysilicon from the entire Xinjiang region, but when action will be taken is still unknown. It is also unclear exactly how U.S. Customs and Border Protection will enforce the order.
Politico pointed out that in enforcing the U.S. government's ban on xinjiang cotton, the department has taken a tough approach, forcing companies that import cotton products from China to trace the production and processing of fibers, and if these companies cannot prove that the fibers they use are not related to the Xinjiang region, U.S. Customs will forcibly confiscate the goods.
This is actually very similar to the approach taken by former President Trump. When the Trump administration cracked down on cotton products in Xinjiang, it first announced sanctions on individual companies, and then extended the scope of the ban to the entire Xinjiang region.
In addition to politicians, the U.S. solar industry is also eager to stir up rumors of so-called "forced labor." Earlier this year, the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) led hundreds of solar companies to sign a "pledge" to ensure supply chains are not affected by "forced labor" and called on members to get rid of Xinjiang's product supply.
The group's chief executive, Abigail Hopper, also vowed that the vast majority of solar panel companies in the United States have taken action to remove products from Xinjiang from their supply chains, and that no matter what the U.S. government does, they can avoid supply chain disruptions.
American workers install solar panels for households, video screenshot
"China occupies a huge market share, and it is difficult for the United States to get rid of dependence"
Although U.S. politicians and some industry insiders are full of confidence, some analysts pointed out that Chinese manufacturers dominate the polysilicon market, and the U.S. ban on importing polysilicon produced in Xinjiang may still cause damage to the supply chain of the U.S. solar industry, and will also greatly affect Biden's rush to implement the clean energy plan.
According to Bernreuter Research, a German specialized polysilicon market research firm, China's polysilicon production accounted for 80% of global production in 2020, of which 45% of production came from four manufacturers in China's Xinjiang region, and another 35% of the share came from other parts of China. Regions outside of China account for only 20 percent.
Although SEIA claims that 20% of polysilicon production outside China is enough to supply to the United States; but politico analysis said that the U.S. solar industry supply chain is now in a situation where the progress of projects is slowing and costs are rising, and the potential supply threat posed by the decision to ban the import of xinjiang polysilicon may further damage its supply chain.
This could lead to a delay in the progress of the popularization of solar panels in the United States. The U.S. solar industry had originally expected that the U.S. solar panel capacity would triple over the next 10 years, and this expectation may be delayed. Affected by this, Biden's plan to eliminate carbon dioxide emissions from the grid by 2035 is likely to be delayed.
Nikos Tsafos, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. foreign policy think tank, also pointed out that because China occupies a large share in areas such as polysilicon, it is difficult for the United States to get rid of its dependence on products in Xinjiang and quickly restart manufacturing without affecting its deployment.
He warned the U.S. solar industry: "You can't reshape the entire industry so quickly, and I think one potential reality is that China has a very large share of this industry, and in any reasonable time frame, you can't get rid of this dependency or interdependence." ”
In response to the rumor that Xinjiang's polysilicon photovoltaic products are "forced labor" production, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian pointed out at a regular press conference on March 16 that the so-called existence of "forced labor" in Xinjiang is an outright lie, and its purpose is to restrict and suppress China's relevant parties and enterprise development.
Zhao Lijian said that the Chinese side has repeatedly clarified the facts and truth on many occasions. It is hoped that the US Government, relevant organizations, and enterprises will, with an attitude of being responsible for themselves and others, distinguish between right and wrong, respect facts, not believe rumors and rumors, and make correct judgments that conform to their own interests.
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