According to the forecast of the climate trend in 2021, combined with the occurrence data of diseases and insect pests in the 143 regiments and the overwintering base survey in 2020, it is estimated that the overall incidence trend of the main diseases and insect pests in agriculture and forestry in our regiment in 2021 will be grade 3 (moderate), and the local area will be grade 4 (moderate). Insect pests are more important than diseases.
First, climatic factors
According to the forecast of the agricultural and animal husbandry meteorological trend of the Shihezi Meteorological Bureau in 2021, the agricultural and animal husbandry production in the Shihezi Reclamation Area in 2021 (January to December) will be slightly more abundant. The light and heat conditions are slightly better than usual, and the impact of meteorological disasters on agricultural and animal husbandry production is slightly lighter than in 2020. The average annual temperature is slightly higher, and the precipitation is slightly less; the ≥ 10 °C, the ≥ 15 °C accumulated temperature is slightly more than usual. The opening of spring is slightly earlier, the final frost period is slightly earlier, and the initial frost period and winter period are slightly late. Stronger cold air in spring occurs mainly in mid-to-late March and early April. The main precipitation period during the flood season will occur in late June and mid-to-late August.
1． Temperature: Expected to be slightly lower in the post-winter (February 2021); slightly higher in spring; slightly higher in summer; slightly higher in autumn; slightly higher in annual.
2． Precipitation: Expect more precipitation in the later winter (February 2021); slightly less in spring; less in summer; slightly less in autumn; and slightly less in annual.
3． Critical period of agricultural affairs
It is expected that the spring period in all parts of the reclamation area in 2021 will be from the end of early March to the beginning of the middle of March, which is earlier than usual; the final frost period will be in the late to early April, earlier than the normal year; the first frost will be in the late middle of October, slightly later; and the winter period will be in the late middle of November, slightly later.
4． Cumulative temperature prediction
It is estimated that in 2021, the accumulated temperature of≥ 10 °C in the reclamation area will be 3800 to 4000 °C, which is slightly more than usual; the accumulated temperature of 15 °C ≥ 3250 ~ 3380 °C, which is slightly more than usual.
Second, the prediction of the occurrence trend of major crop diseases and insect pests in the 143 regiments in 2021
(1) Agricultural pests
1, cotton aphid: the degree of occurrence is expected to be 4, the local lot is 5, and the occurrence area is 330,000 mu.
According to (1) the temperature and humidity in the autumn of 2020 are conducive to the breeding of cotton aphids. On November 15, the amount of cotton aphid eggs was surveyed outdoors, and the golden tree: 20 cm branches averaged 14 eggs, up from the 2019 average of 11 eggs. (2) Flower survey, the average aphid pot rate was 1.6%, and there were 6 aphids in 100 plants, which was lower than the same period in 2019 (1.9%, 8 heads). (3) Spring in 2021 starts early, the spring temperature is high, and the occurrence period is earlier than in previous years. (4) In the summer, the temperature is slightly higher from June to August, and the precipitation is slightly less, which is conducive to the breeding of cotton aphids.
2. Cotton leaf mite: the estimated degree of occurrence is 3, the local area is 4, and the occurrence area is 210,000 mu.
Basis: (1) Last autumn, the temperature was high, the winter was late, and the wintering base of cotton leaf mites was 20 heads/㎡, which was slightly higher than the survey value of 19 heads/㎡in the same period of 2019. (2) The area of stubble irrigation in autumn is small, which provides favorable conditions for cotton leaf mites to overwinter. (3) In the summer, the temperature is slightly higher from June to August, and the precipitation is slightly less, which is conducive to the occurrence and reproduction of cotton leaf mites.
4. Cotton bollworm: the estimated degree of occurrence is grade 2, the local area is grade 3, and the occurrence area is 140,000 mu.
It is estimated that the degree of occurrence of one generation is level 2, the degree of occurrence of the second generation is level 2, the degree of occurrence of generation of three generations is level 2, and the degree of occurrence of local lots is level 3.
Basis: (1) 2020 cotton bollworm pupae overwintering base survey: cotton land 0.08 head / ㎡; tomato land 0.1 head / ㎡; corn field 0.13 head / ㎡; compared with the average cotton bollworm overwintering base in 2019 has decreased. (2) The area of stubble irrigation in autumn is small, which provides favorable conditions for cotton bollworms to overwinter.
5. Ground tiger: the estimated degree of occurrence is Grade 1, the local area is Grade 2, and the occurrence area is 30,000 mu.
According to the 2020 wintering base survey, the number of larvae is 0.03 heads/㎡, which is the same as the wintering base of the 2019 survey.
6. Corn borer: the estimated degree of occurrence is 2, the local area is 3, and the occurrence area is 110,000 mu.
According to the 2020 wintering base survey, there are 8 larvae in the 100 poles, which is 1 head lower than the 9 heads of the 100 pole survey in 2019. Due to the large planting area of corn, the promotion of tillage measures such as straw returning to the field and dense planting is conducive to the continuous accumulation of populations and provides a favorable living environment for the occurrence of pests.
7. Cotton blind bugs: the estimated degree of occurrence is 2, the local lot is 3, and the occurrence area is 40,000 mu.
8. Cotton thrips: the expected degree of occurrence is 3, the local area is 4, and the occurrence area is 120,000 mu.
9. Double-spotted fluorescent leaf beetle: the estimated degree of occurrence is 2, the local lot is 3, and the occurrence area is 50,000 mu. Basis: In 2020, the corn planting area is large, the continuous harm time is long, and the base number is large.
(2) Pests of the forest and fruit industry
1. Spring inchworm: the degree of occurrence is expected to be level 3, and the occurrence area is 0.5 million mu.
According to the wintering survey: there are pupae 0.23 heads/㎡, which is higher than the wintering base in 2019 (the survey value at the end of 2019 is 0.14 heads/㎡).
2. Yang Mengni nocturnal moth: the estimated degree of occurrence is Grade 2, and the occurrence area is 0.4 million mu. This insect is mainly harmful to poplar trees, elms, ash trees, mulberry trees, willow trees and so on.
3. Yuqian Borer: The degree of occurrence is expected to be Grade 1, the local lot is Grade 2, and the occurrence area is 0.2 million mu.
4. Pear small heartworm: the estimated degree of occurrence is level 3, and the occurrence area is 20,000 mu.
(3) Diseases
1. Cotton rotten root disease: the expected degree of occurrence is 2, the local area is 3, and the occurrence area is 100,000 mu.
Basis: (1) The application of 100% good seed coating technology measures can effectively control the large-scale occurrence of rotten root disease.
(2) From the end of April to the beginning of May, there will be a cold weather process in the spring in the reclamation area, resulting in diseases of the roots of cotton seedlings.
2. Cotton verticillium wilt disease: the estimated incidence degree is grade 2, the local lot is grade 3, and the occurrence area is 30,000 mu.
Basis: First, the cotton field continuous cropping time is long and the residual bacteria of Verticillium wilt disease are large. The second is to remove stubble and replace varieties in time, which inhibits the occurrence of diseases.
3. Wheat rust and powdery mildew: It is expected that the incidence of wheat rust will be grade 1, and the local area will be grade 2, and the occurrence area will be 0.3 million mu.
It is estimated that the incidence of wheat powdery mildew is Grade 1, and the local area is Grade 2, with an area of 0.3 million mu. Basis: Summer 2021 is on the high side and precipitation is slightly less.
4. Tomato bacterial spotted disease and early blight: the estimated incidence degree is Grade 1, the local area is Grade 2, and the occurrence area is 0.2 million mu.
According to the 2021 climate forecast, the precipitation in the spring is slightly less than usual, and the temperature in the spring is slightly higher than usual.
5. Grape downy mildew and powdery mildew: the expected degree of occurrence is grade 2, the local area is grade 3, and the occurrence area is 0.5 million mu.
3. Current work recommendations
According to the climate characteristics in 2021 and the analysis of the occurrence of the main diseases and insects in agriculture, forestry and fruit in 2020, the situation of plant protection this year is still grim, and leaders and contractors at all levels should pay great attention to it, establish the concept of "prevention first, comprehensive prevention" plant protection, adhere to the "scientific plant protection, public plant protection, green plant protection", strengthen unified prevention and control, and grasp the agricultural work this year.
1. At present, we should do a good job in the buckle shed of leek sheds, pay attention to observing the temperature changes in the shed, and do a good job in the prevention and control of leek maggots. (1) Sticky to kill adult insects. In the initial stage of adult insects, adult insects can be killed by sticking to the sticky worm, or directly with a simple yellow plate, and the lower edge of the height of the insect trap plate is 5-10 cm above the top of the leek, which can predict the adult occurrence period. (2) Sweet and sour solution to trap adult insects. Sugar, vinegar, wine and water are prepared into a mixture in the ratio of 3:3:1:10. (3) Sprinkling grass and wood ash on the furrow surface in early spring can worsen the spawning environment of adult leek maggots, which is not conducive to the growth of leek maggots. Adult leek maggots like to eat spoilage, so the application of decomposing organic fertilizer can reduce the occurrence of leek maggots. (4) Use 8000iu/microliter of Thuringiensis to mix into about 100 kg of mother liquor, and evenly flush with irrigation water, 1000ml per acre of land. (The use of highly toxic and prohibited pesticides is strictly prohibited in leek fields)
2. Do a good job in the preparation of greenhouse seedlings. At this stage, we should do a good job in heating, heat preservation, sterilization, nutrient soil preparation and debugging of sowing machinery in seedling greenhouses.
3. All units should do a good job in the preparation and maintenance of field spraying equipment. Achieve timely maintenance, cleaning and debugging of spraying machinery, ensure the quality of spraying, and achieve meticulous, uniform, heavy and non-leakage of spraying machinery, so as to create conditions for doing a good job in plant protection in 2021.
4. Do a good job in indoor aphid control, and do a good job in greenhouse aphid prevention and aphid control work. In line with the principle of "treating early, curing small, and curing", all production greenhouses must hang aphid yellow plates, reduce the aphid base, and prevent the greenhouse from becoming a breeding ground for aphids.
Source: 143 Regiment Agricultural Development Service Center 2021 Phase I Agricultural Guidance (February 18), Graphic Editor: Tianshan Plant Protection, reprint please indicate the source!