Recently, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has become tense again, and everyone is very concerned about the attitude and trends of China and the United States. But in fact, in addition to China and the United States, there is another force that has been very active in the Taiwan Strait issue.
That's right, it's Japan. During this period, Japan's momentum in doing things was not weaker than that of the United States at all -- as early as April, when the Japanese-US summit joint statement mentioned the Taiwan issue for the first time in 52 years, and even then-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Foreign Minister Motegi Toshige "mistakenly" referred to Taiwan as a "country"; in July, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aso Taro threatened that if the mainland used force against Taiwan, Japan might exercise its restricted right of collective self-defense and intervene in the "Taiwan Strait" by force; in August, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi declared that " The physical distance between Japan and Taiwan is very close, and for Japan, what happens in Taiwan is not something that has nothing to do with itself."
From this series of actions, we can see that Japan's enthusiasm for making trouble on the Taiwan issue is very high, and even in many cases it is still ahead of the United States. In the early years, before the United States played the Taiwan card, Japan had already taken the lead and charged the Taiwan issue on many occasions.
What does this mean? This means that Japan's troubles on the Taiwan issue are not simply pandering to the United States, but because the Taiwan issue is also of great interest to Japan – and even this interest is somewhat more urgent than that of the United States.
So, what is the value of Taiwan, and is it worth Japan jumping up and down like this?
The general explanation is that the Taiwan tsunami is the lifeline of Japan's maritime trade, and once the two sides of the strait are reunified, it means that the lifeblood of Japan's trade is tied to China's hands. Another explanation is that Japan's move is to please the United States - after all, it is the American horse boy, through the performance of hard work, to please the master and win its own interests.
Both explanations are true, but they are not comprehensive. In other words, it only explains Japan's willingness to make trouble in the Taiwan Strait, but it does not explain why Japan's desire to do things is so eager -- after all, to put it bluntly, on the Taiwan Strait issue, although Japan is happy, its strength determines that it is doomed not to be the protagonist. The real protagonist of the Taiwan Strait issue is China and the United States, and the fate and prospects of the Taiwan Strait also depend on the outcome of the game between China and the United States. Japan's attitude is actually of secondary importance at all -- after all, in terms of Japan's national strength, Hai Zi's family foundation is not worth mentioning at all in front of today's China. Its political stance and even military threats are even more a joke for China - if the US military does not move, Japan really dares to intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue by force, simply to send it to the door to find death. And if the U.S. military enters the war, it will be a world war, and with Japan's strength, a war of this scale is even more foil - although it cannot be said to be insignificant, it is by no means a heavyweight.
To put it bluntly, Japan simply does not have enough weight in this big chess game in the Taiwan Strait. Although Japan has actively performed and tried to play itself as a chess player, its strength determines that it is not qualified to play at all.
In fact, Japan is not without self-knowledge. But even so, it still jumps up and down, racking its brains, why is this?
The main thing is that Taiwan is too important to it. This importance determines that Japan must exert full influence on it even if it knows that it does not have the qualifications of a chess player. Specifically, through their own operations, they want to influence the chess steps of these two Chinese and American chess players, and then guide the situation to evolve in a direction favorable to themselves:
In fact, the reason why Japan is so supportive of Taiwan independence is that it even does not hesitate to invest huge resources and deeply antagonize China. The intention is not really to prevent China from reunifying Taiwan – even Americans now know in their hearts that if China really wants to forcibly reunify militarily, the United States cannot stop it. The Americans are still powerless, and what ability and courage does it have as a small Japan to forcibly stop it?
What Japan really wants is to trigger the Taiwan Strait crisis, promote China's early military reunification, and then force the United States to loosen its grip on Japan.
After the defeat in World War II, Japan was completely reduced to a vassal of the United States. Although the United States later relaxed its restraint on Japan because of the Korean War and the Cold War, this relaxation was only at the economic level, and Japan was still highly clamped down by the United States in terms of politics and military.
This kind of clamping has severely limited Japan's national potential. Although Japan later rose economically and once grew into the world's second largest economic power, due to political and military non-independence, it could not fully transform this economic advantage into national strength and influence, and even the economy itself, its development ceiling was also sealed by the United States, and could only serve as a sterilization tool for the second grade to work for the West, and was harvested by the United States at every turn.
This means that there is no future for this country. Not to mention the continued upward development and breakthrough, even the existing economic advantages may disappear at any time due to changes in the international political and economic pattern - and Japan is deeply constrained and unable to do so.
Therefore, the normalization of the country is the goal that Japan has been striving for decades.
However, Japan's national normalization is unanimously opposed by neighboring countries such as China, the United States, Japan, Russia, and South Korea, so it is full of difficulties.
And the most important of these is the United States. After all, the United States is the suzerainty of Japan and the root cause of the country's irregularities. Only by letting the United States loosen its grip on Japan can Japan become a normal country and transform its economic strength into comprehensive national strength.
But it is almost impossible for the United States to take the initiative to let go. Even if historical grievances and the United States' wariness against Japan are set aside, how can the United States easily allow Japan to escape its control as the largest fortress of the United States in East Asia, the most obedient contractor, and the fat lamb that can be harvested at any time?
The United States will not take the initiative to let go, and Japan does not have the ability to break the control of the United States on its own, so the only way is to take advantage of the international situation and force the United States to agree to the normalization of the Japanese state.
And this international situation is the rise of China. China is a world-class geopolitical power. With its strong rise, the US hegemony in East Asia and even the Indo-Pacific hegemony is bound to suffer a fundamental impact. And because of China's size, once its potential is fully exploited, it is difficult for the United States to contain it on its own. In this case, if the United States still wants to hold China back, it must rely more on the strength of its allies. Among its allies, Japan, which is also located in East Asia, ranks third in the world in economic power, and has a major historical grudge with China, is undoubtedly the most suitable.
However, Japan's current strength is limited by the United States. Therefore, in order to fully stimulate Japan's national potential and better resist the expansion of China's geopolitical influence, the United States must loosen its grip on Japan.
Therefore, the Sino-US confrontation and even the Cold War became the best opportunity – or even the only opportunity – for Japan to get rid of the US clampdown.
But there's a question of timing here. The showdown between China and the United States must be quick, that is, before China is fully prepared, or before China's strength is not enough to keep pace with the United States or even surpass, it must provoke confrontation and the Cold War, so that Japan can have a chance.
There's no way around it. After all, Japan is located in Northeast Asia, with China and the United States across the Pacific Ocean. Geographical relations determine that in the struggle between China and the United States for dominance of the East Asian order, China naturally has the home field advantage. Therefore, if China and the United States drag on a showdown until China's strength is equal to that of the United States or even surpasses the United States, then with its own strength and home advantage, China is fully capable of forcing the United States out of East Asia in a relatively short period of time through interest exchange or coercive means.
Therefore, if it is really delayed until then, even if the United States lets go of Japan, it will be too late in time, because as soon as the United States lets go, China will immediately take over the power that the United States has given up -- and it is even possible that the United States will let go, but it will become a charge for China to accelerate the establishment of a new order in East Asia, but let the United States throw a rat trap and dare not act rashly.
If this is done, Japan will fall into the situation of Taiwan today. And from an economic point of view, China's next science and technology upgrading, but also a huge impact on the Japanese economy - with China's strength, this trend lasted for ten years, the United States because science and technology is at the forefront of human beings, China may not be able to fully touch, but in the second grade of Japan, it can be said that the iron will be eaten through by China - and once China eats through technology, then even if the economic level, there is no more Japan.
So Japan is in a hurry. And with the accelerating trend of Sino-US power in recent years, Japan's mood is more urgent - according to the current trend, I am afraid that in less than ten years, China's total GDP will surpass the United States, and its comprehensive national strength will be on a par with the United States, and it will be at most ten to fifteen years. That is to say, in a maximum of ten to fifteen years, Japan will lose the opportunity to normalize the country — and then even if the United States lets go, it will be useless, because China will then have the ability to take over the full legacy of the United States in East Asia.
The most urgent of these is the Japanese right wing. In fact, it is said that Japan is anxious, but there is also a difference in it - the right wing is really anxious to jump, but the left wing - like Hatoyama Yukio, is relatively more normal.
There is a reason for this distinction. In fact, it is said that China has replaced the position of the United States, but the Chinese-style order and the American-style order are very different from each other - after all, China has always faced strong pressure from the Western world, and the relationship between neighbors is much more complicated than that of the United States, so the Chinese-style order cannot be based on hegemony like the United States, but a cooperative order with the economy as the link. Although China certainly occupies a central position in this order, its maintenance of order cannot be based on strength deterrence like the United States, but more on interest binding and temptation.
Therefore, even if China is included in the new order, Japan does not have to worry about being liquidated, and it can also normalize like an ordinary country. However, this normalization of ordinary state-style also means that Japan has returned to its proper position in history - with Japan's geographical location and size, this position should be at most an ordinary medium-sized developed country, certainly not the world's third-largest economic power, let alone the Great Japanese Empire that collided with great luck in the last century.
Of course, this is also more uncomfortable for Japan. But this position is actually the true embodiment of Japan's strength and status. Japan's rise over the past hundred years has largely seized the two historical opportunities of the East Asian world's transition to industrial civilization and the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union – two historical opportunities that are unattainable. So now that the wind has faded and the opportunity is gone, it makes sense to return to normalcy – and such a position is more secure. Forcibly bucking the trend may cause greater losses and may even lead to the destruction of the nation (such as World War II). To understand this layer, for some rational politicians, it is actually very scientific to conform to the general trend.
But that's just a minority. After all, Japan's scenery has been more than a hundred years, even if this scenery is only the east wind that takes advantage of historical opportunities, but after more than a hundred years, it has also supported Japan's ambitions. So for the vast majority of Japanese people, especially politicians, they are not willing to let Japan's normal return. The normalization of their minds is not to become an ordinary country, but to get as close as possible to the former "Great Japanese Empire".
The representatives of these people are the Japanese right, and they are now the mainstream in Japan.
Moreover, as far as the right-wing political forces themselves are concerned, they must not accept a normalized outcome. Because China's understanding of Normalization of Japan is certainly ordinary state-style; as for the normalization of the "Great Japanese Empire", China can never allow it. Therefore, once the influence of the United States in Japan is replaced by China, although Japan as a country will not be liquidated, the Japanese right will certainly be liquidated.
Therefore, even if it is only for the sake of its own interests, the Japanese right-wing must kidnap the country, fight China to the end, and do everything possible to provoke Sino-US confrontation and the Cold War in advance. Only by bringing this confrontation and the Cold War ahead of schedule can China be forced to fight the United States to the death while it is not fully prepared, so that Japan can achieve the dual goal of forcing the United States to loosen its grip and not being afraid of being completely broken by China by the existing East Asian order. In this way, Japan can achieve the goal of militaristic normalization. At the same time, given the blockade of China after the Cold War, China's imminent replacement offensive against the Japanese economy will also be greatly delayed; the Japanese economy, and even Japan's national strength, is likely to continue to support its illusions of imperial normalization of Japan.
But it is not easy to force a showdown between China and the United States in advance. Although the general trend of Sino-US confrontation has taken shape, the two countries are obviously not ready for a full-scale showdown and a new Cold War - China needless to say, that is, the United States, there is also a lot of trouble, and fighting the Cold War now is purely a lose-lose situation.
This makes the Japanese right wing very anxious. After all, as mentioned earlier, their strategic opportunity period is only ten years away. If China and the United States do not turn their faces and tear up within a decade, then Japan will have no chance - even if the new Cold War starts, Japan will only be reduced to cannon fodder.
Therefore, Japan must seize every opportunity to promote the formation of a new Cold War. And in terms of how to provoke a new Cold War, there is no better card than Taiwan. As long as Taiwan independence breaks the bottom line, China has no choice but to advance military reunification; once China advances military reunification, the United States has no choice but to have a showdown with China in advance -- even if a world war cannot be fought, the new Cold War will absolutely not be able to run, and the conspiracy of Japan's right-wing will succeed.
This is why Japan is desperately fanning the flames on the Taiwan issue and is more active than the United States. In reality, Chinese mainland have irreconcilable structural contradictions with the United States and the Taiwan authorities – this is Japan's opportunity; however, all three parties have their own scruples and are unwilling to showdowns so quickly – which is again An obstacle for Japan. Therefore, what Japan has to do is to play chicken blood for Taiwan independence, show loyalty to the United States, find stimulus for China, and urge the three parties to go in the direction of showdown and tearing. As long as these three parties concerned have crossed that critical point, the Taiwan Strait issue will be completely detonated, and China and the United States will have a showdown in advance, and the purpose of Japan's right wing will be achieved.
This is the real reason why Japan is enthusiastic about doing things in Taiwan. To put it bluntly, Taiwan is a tool for Japan to be small and broad. It is a sacrifice of Japanese militarism for self-redemption. What the Japanese right wing wants to do is to put taiwan's sacrifice on the altar and provide sufficient reasons for the fight between the two gods and immortals in China and the United States. As for whether China and the United States will lose both after the tearing, the Japanese right wing does not care at all; as for the fate of the sacrifice of Taiwan independence, it is even less of a matter for Japan!
Of course, although the right-wing abacus is sounding, Japan's strength is limited after all. In the game of chess in the Taiwan Strait, China and the United States are chess players, Taiwan itself is just a chess piece, and as for Japan, it is an outsider. Although it very much wants to enter the game, but the weight determines, it does not have the qualifications to hold the son, can only see the needle in the side of the stirring. But, nevertheless, we should not ignore Japan – after all, in the past hundred years, this country has repeatedly plagued China and interrupted China's national fortunes. This time, we must be highly vigilant, and we must not let this churning stick disrupt the steps of our rise and destroy the prospects of our revival!
So, specific to the practical level, in the face of Japan's incitement, what means can China have to crack down and counter it? Pay attention to the WeChat public account: Yun Shi, Yun Shi Jun The next section continues to interpret for you.
This article is the 2182 section of the Marble Overseas Wind and Cloud series. Favorite readers, please use WeChat to search for the public account: Yunshi, and continue to watch all the original articles of the Yunshi Overseas Fengyun series.