After the three major indexes opened low on Friday, they fluctuated in a narrow range, and the weighted sectors such as banks, securities, and liquor continued to retrace. The three major indexes continued to consolidate in the afternoon. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.42% to 3397.36 points; the Shenzhen component index fell 0.29% to 14473.21 points; the ChiNext index fell 0.56% to 3440.18 points; the Shanghai 50 index fell 1.57%; the total turnover of the two cities was 1339.7 billion yuan, and the net inflow of northbound funds was 2.247 billion yuan.
Recently, market funds have accelerated from traditional blue chips, large consumption and other white horse stocks to the "new blue chips" of high prosperity growth, forming a new group effect. In the second half of the week, the market stabilized, and the high-boom growth stocks strengthened sharply, and many of them reached new highs; while traditional blue-chip and group stocks such as finance and winemaking further declined. The characteristics of the market are visible, so how should we choose? In this regard, Wolf Shuai Chen Hao has talked about it many times in this month's live broadcast, suggesting that investors use anti-trend strategies! For specific analysis, please see the collation of caijia today.
Chen Hao
There is currently a new volatile sideways in the market. The last effective breakout of the range in the last oscillating sideways is statistically 49 trading days. You can roughly tell the approximate time of the rupture, but you can't tell exactly, but before the end of the year I'm sure the index will slowly arch to a higher position.
How to judge the oscillation and trend market? For example, let's find a trend market of the Shanghai Composite Index, do not point the cursor to the last peak, point to the middle of the mountainside - ask a question: should we chase strong stocks now, or should we chase stocks that have fallen? To solve this problem, it depends on whether the market at that time is a trend market or a volatile market.
Looking at the chart, the Shanghai Composite Index has rubbed up, do you say that at this time, it is the nature of the unilateral market or the nature of the shock market? If it's a shock market, you should sell it now and wait for the low time to suck it up. So how do we know it is not? On July 3, 2020, zoom in on the Marauder's map, and the bull stock ratio at that time was 72.78%.
Mathematics is a continuous function, but we are generally used to doing it with standard deviation: more than 67% is the trend market; that is, between 33% and 67% is a more volatile market - take the bull stock rate of 67% as the component water ridge, greater than 67% is unilateral, so you should chase strong stocks; if between 67% and 33%, you should do high selling and low sucking, new funds are always bought from low, do not chase high; if the bull stock rate is less than 33%, it is a downward unilateral, Generally speaking, you should wait at this time and not open a new position.
So three different scenarios, three different approaches, and its password is marauder's point map inside three. It is to tell you whether the market has produced more bull stocks or more bear stocks since this quarter: if there are many bull stocks, it is a bull market; if the market has produced a roughly equal number of bull stocks and bear stocks at the same time, it is an involuted shock market. According to my observation of the current bull-to-stock ratio, there is a long-term shock market at the moment, but there is still a high enough proportion of involution, so it is not right for you to chase the stocks, sectors and funds that are in a strong position now.
At present, the stock is rolled up, and the institution is constantly doing high throwing and low suction, so it is sold when it rises, and then it is sucked when it falls. Some people say, so should we do a short-term? I personally believe that you can't do short-term trading in positions, you have to change shares seamlessly, because institutions are the same - institutions don't change positions, only change the holding of individual stocks, that is to say, everyone is playing with stock exchanges. The stock exchange, at the beginning, is bearish, because the stock exchange requires liquidity, and once it is balanced, it is neutral.
The liquidity of the market can always support institutional exchanges, who provides the liquidity? Retail. How do retail investors provide mobility? It is to listen to the stock reviews, listen to the size of the v: which sector is strong, I will chase which. Then the institution can give which sector is strong to retail investors, and then he goes to the retail investors to throw out, go bad, has fallen in the middle and large market performance growth stocks to suck retail investors to sell, that is to say, in fact, which plate is strong, which plate is hanging, which plate is spit on, which plate should be bought.
Again, the focus of the third quarter was on big technology, not large-cap stocks, so insurance stocks had to wait. I originally estimated that the insurance stock was in the fourth quarter, but I didn't expect it to fall so deeply, and some people said that I had insurance, so what to do? Take care of everyone one thing, stock speculation must be divided, so that a retail investor holding more than 20 stocks is normal, each position is 5%, if you like it can even expand to 30 stocks. Some people say why not take one? Because it's easy to get wrong.
Doesn't this go back to the big tech topic we talked about? It is expected that the industrial upgrading of high-end manufacturing and traditional industries will become a new theme that is hot again in the fourth quarter, and then in the fourth quarter, we must be careful of large consumption stampedes. Now the main gameplay of the market is called track rolling, who is hot who is stepped on, who is miserable who is bottomed, so you have to learn to countertrend trading when you do stocks yourself. Of course, countertrend trading should not be done too quickly, once a quarter, rolling the funds into the low-level suction chips, and then throw away the track that has become an Internet celebrity.
Now we should be particularly careful to accumulate value investments that have increased several times and were previously considered to have no ceiling in price, simply to buy stocks with excellent mid-market and active growth from stocks that have had a deep correction. The first of the four elements is performance; the second is the broader market; the third is growth, which refers to performance growth; and the fourth is active. Grasp these four points, the general outline is high throw low suction, you can still have a fight with the institution, of course, the best way is to buy funds.